Is Ethiopia’s disintegration an inevitable and necessary evil?
- Thread starter 𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈
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𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈
VIP
Here is a good analyses, and the news bulletin of the Tigray, Amhara and Eritrea alliance was well publicised.
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Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is at war with the Amhara and Oromo and he is beating the drums for a new war with Eritrea. He is talking publicly about Ethiopia’s greatness by taking a seaport by force of arms.
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The international community has so far been confused and apparently powerless in trying to stop the slide to Abiy’s new war.
[ ... ]
The ongoing military engagement of the ENDF against the Amhara Fano militia and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) in Oromia, and the failures of its attempts to achieve battlefield victory, indicate that the ENDF today is less of an army and more of a gathering of conscripts in uniform.
According to sources of the Ethiopian government, Isaias has intensified that support. Now that his anti-Tigrayan alliance with Abiy is officially broken, he is also engaged in political rhetoric that emphasizes the incapability of Abiy’s regime to govern Ethiopia.
As well as responding defensively to whatever might come from Ethiopia, it is also possible that Isaias may opt for a pre-emptive attack, anticipating a war that he sees as inevitable, or escalate the conflict in Amhara region.
sites.tufts.edu
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Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is at war with the Amhara and Oromo and he is beating the drums for a new war with Eritrea. He is talking publicly about Ethiopia’s greatness by taking a seaport by force of arms.
[ ... ]
The international community has so far been confused and apparently powerless in trying to stop the slide to Abiy’s new war.
[ ... ]
The ongoing military engagement of the ENDF against the Amhara Fano militia and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) in Oromia, and the failures of its attempts to achieve battlefield victory, indicate that the ENDF today is less of an army and more of a gathering of conscripts in uniform.
According to sources of the Ethiopian government, Isaias has intensified that support. Now that his anti-Tigrayan alliance with Abiy is officially broken, he is also engaged in political rhetoric that emphasizes the incapability of Abiy’s regime to govern Ethiopia.
As well as responding defensively to whatever might come from Ethiopia, it is also possible that Isaias may opt for a pre-emptive attack, anticipating a war that he sees as inevitable, or escalate the conflict in Amhara region.
Tigray in the Eye of the Storm - World Peace Foundation
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is at war with the Amhara and Oromo and he is beating the drums for a new war with Eritrea.
sites.tufts.edu
seldiboy
Resident Eritrean | Ye's strongest soldier
Ethiopia isn't going to disintegrate (on paper) but I do think it will go through a similar situation to Somalia in 1991 IF (and it's a big if) the Oromos and Amharas really go toe-to-toe. Abiy doesn't seem the type to try appeasement anymore and the Amhara issue is becoming a ticking time bomb. The MoU with Somaliland hasn't galvanised the Ethiopian population behind him.
I think we really could see Ethiopia descend into anarchy. It's not like the civil war that ended in 1991 where certain armed groups had hegemony after the Derg collapsed. There isn't anyone that really stands above the rest and so things could get really destructive.
I think we really could see Ethiopia descend into anarchy. It's not like the civil war that ended in 1991 where certain armed groups had hegemony after the Derg collapsed. There isn't anyone that really stands above the rest and so things could get really destructive.
Talk of alliances is cheap. Everyone in that axis hates each others guts. Tigrayans and Amharas have land disputes with each other and have very different visions for a future Ethiopia (ethnic federalists vs centralised unitary state). Amharas don't even recognise Eritrea's independence. Tigrayans and Eritreans hate each others guts for reasons that are too numerous for me to write out. The only thing that's plausible right now is Afwerki flooding the Amhara region with weapons and training their forces so they can kill ENDF soldiers and die themselves in the process. The issue of Welkait and Raya precludes any sort of Tigrayan-Amhara solidarity.
I think the difference between Ethiopia and Somalia is that their constitution has an article allowing for secession. In the event that they actually fight a civil war, I can see the Somali region using that article to get its independence. Especially if it manages to stay out of the war like it has been doing the last few years
If the Somali constitution had a similar article, Somaliland would’ve probably gotten it’s independence once the central government fell
𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈
VIP
You are raising similar points as M G Berhe, even if he is a die-hard Tigray nationalist.
How do you draw a distinction between anarchy and disintegration? And how does no single group wielding enough power for dominance, like Tigray in the 90s, prevent an eventual disintegration?
At the speedy rate security conditions are deteriorating in and around Adids, economic hardship where Abiy is begging IMF and Work Bank, and with Afwerki aggressively arming himself with Iranian drones and superior air power along with Tigray and Habasha, what shall we call that if not alliance?
That is Article 39, but then there is Article 68, which makes it almost improbable for secession, which is generally overlooked in stride.
I’m looking at the Ethiopian constitution, and I don’t see any mention of secession in article 68. Perhaps you were thinking of a different article?
𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈
VIP
From the look of it, it was brought under Article 39, section 4, sub-sections a-e. It used to be known as Article 68.2.I’m looking at the Ethiopian constitution, and I don’t see any mention of secession in article 68. Perhaps you were thinking of a different article?
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I see. Yea there is a specific protocol that must be met before a people are to be granted independence
In the event that a civil war were to occur and the central government collapses, I wonder if K5 could ask the UN to monitor a vote for independence in place of the federal government
𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈
VIP
Yes, it has since been simplified in its current form, but in its initial draft, the legal language was so convoluted, it was prohibitive to even fathom its mere reference, let alone application.
Generations of Somali patriots in DDS have long gone to their resting ground, and amongst the current crop, you will find many as proud Ethiopians, as they will say with a blank stare, as if neutered in their deep sleep, and have since adopted many non-Somali customs, which I find rather shocking, but then again, I suppose it is no different from sons and daughters of the Dervishes, who perished whilst liberating Somali lands from Saancadaale, now embracing the colonial appellation, and with pride. The sock and horror!
Postscript:
Let us be kind to our brethren, for they prefer DDS instead of K5.
Three Moons
Give Dhul-Suwayqatayn not an inch of the Sea!
The real irony is if that country was allowed to collapse in 77’ at the hands of Somali soldiers, and as a consequence Eritrea, Oromia, Afar, Amhara, Tigray, etc had all emerged as new countries, we 47 years later in 2024 would probably be discussing and witnessing a Horn version of the EU, with open borders, crisscrossing highways and rail systems connecting the farmlands of Oromia and the highlands of Amhara and Tigray with the ports of Eritrea and Greater Somalia.
This will never happen with the current configuration.
This will never happen with the current configuration.
It’s necessary but not evil
EritreanPost_
EritreanPost 🇪🇷🇩🇯🇸🇴🇸🇩🇪🇬 |Eritrean news blogger
Ethiopia insight is pro Tigrayan TPLF news site.Potential harms of disintegration must be weighed against consequences of holding Ethiopia together by force. Ethiopia is a failing state rapidly rushing toward disintegration.
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Ethiopia was created as a dependent colonial empire with the assistance of European imperial powers in multipronged wars of conquest waged by Emperor Menelik II in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries.
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Status quo
Since Abiy came to power in 2018, multipronged wars have once again erupted between the Ethiopian state and its constituent nations, namely Tigray, Oromia, and Amhara, even with the help of a foreign, bloodthirsty antagonist, Eritrea, in Tigray.
The ongoing hidden war in Oromia was reenergized in 2018 within months of Abiy being named prime minister by the then-ruling party, the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF).
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), as the senior party in the EPRDF coalition, was forced to accept a new prime minister from a junior member, the Oromo People’s Democratic Organization (OPDO), due to the unrelenting struggle of the Oromo youth—known as Qeerroo/Qarree.
The new government quickly turned against the Oromo popular movement and denied the protesters’ demands. It adopted mass killing and imprisonment while systematically dismantling their peaceful struggle, effectively forcing many of them to join the armed resistance led by the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA).
When its attempts to obliterate the OLA failed, the Abiy regime turned to a state-sanctioned policy of “drying the pond to kill the fish.” It deployed the federal and regional security forces, Amhara and Oromo militias, and local settler Amhara groups in Oromia to loot, rape, and kill at will.
In the meantime, Abiy demolished the ruling party and formed a new party in 2019, the Prosperity Party, to promote his imperial ambition in the mold of emperors Menelik II and Haile Selassie I.
Peaceful disintegration?
Ethiopia is at a crossroads and the roads all lead to disintegration. The only real unknown is whether this results from multiple future bloody civil wars or is done through a negotiated orderly breaking apart supported by international actors.
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Since the 1980s, the world has seen the birth of new nations. The breakup of the former Yugoslavia was an extraordinarily violent affair that dragged on throughout the 1990s, while Eritrea and South Sudan only became independent following decades of civil war.
The consequences of how these countries were created include simmering tensions in the former Yugoslavia, political instability, intercommunal conflict, and civil wars in Sudan and South Sudan, the Ethio-Eritrean war from 1998-2000, and Eritrea’s devastating participation in Ethiopia’s most recent civil war.
On the other hand, the splitting apart of Czechoslovakia and the Soviet Union was accomplished through a negotiated and peaceful breakaway. Regions like Quebec in Canada have also peacefully held referendums on the question of secession.
The question is whether the Ethiopian regime and its Western allies are willing to avoid a violent disintegration that costs millions of lives, destroys the meager regional economy, destabilizes the region, and leads to chaotic mass migration.
Is Ethiopia’s disintegration an inevitable and necessary evil? - Ethiopia Insight
Potential harms of disintegration must be weighed against consequences of holding Ethiopia together by force.www.ethiopia-insight.com
The owners of Ethiopia insight condoned TPLFs war on Somalia and Ogaden from 2006-2018.
Eritrea had every right to intervene in Tigray after Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front started war in November 2020 shot 15 long range missiles to Eritrea and illegally occupied 200 square kilometers of Eritrea‘s Badme region.
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Garaad Awal
Zubeyri, Hanafi. Sub-Saharans are cursed
Somali region doesn’t exist. All clans will go to war once a “secession” of the Somali region occurs. I’m 100% sure Ciise areas would join Djibouti and Isaaq areas will be protected by SL forces and annexed. This mythical Somali Galbeed state will never happen
Garaad Awal
Zubeyri, Hanafi. Sub-Saharans are cursed
What does that have to do with putting SL forces in Isaaq areas? Ethiopian Isaaqs will not be shooting SL forces but welcoming them. You can have a Jabarti state when Ethiopia disintegrates but Isaaqs shall not be joining you
No need to think too hard about this if a civil breaks out ONLF will take over the name “liyuu police” will be changed to Ogaden national defence forces ONDF. Crap names like k5 Somali region srs dds will be banned the place will be called Ogaden and this will be the flag.
Ogaden exports will include but not limited to oil, gold, diamonds, fertilizers, livestock….etc.
I really don’t know what will happen to Ciise bc it seems IOG doesn’t care about them at all every time afar and oromos pagans attacked Ciise civilians Allah used Ogadens to protect them every single time Ogaden would arm them just in case pagans attack them. Idk what will happen to Sitti wallahi. If a civil war breaks out the Afars will probably try to xoog Sitti and Ciise civilians knowing that IOG wouldn’t care will come to Ogaden for help. Just a conjecture.
Garaad Awal
Zubeyri, Hanafi. Sub-Saharans are cursed
Seems like a Djibouti/Ciise problem. What does that have to do with me? Every man for himselfI really don’t know what will happen to Ciise bc it seems IOG doesn’t care about them at all every time afar and oromos pagans attacked Ciise civilians Allah used Ogadens to protect them every single time Ogaden would arm them just in case pagans attack them. Idk what will happen to Sitti wallahi. If a civil war breaks out the Afars will probably try to xoog Sitti and Ciise civilians knowing that IOG wouldn’t care will come to Ogaden for help. Just a conjecture.
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