Is Ethiopia’s disintegration an inevitable and necessary evil?

[seldiboy]

I think the difference between Ethiopia and Somalia is that their constitution has an article allowing for secession. In the event that they actually fight a civil war, I can see the Somali region using that article to get its independence. Especially if it manages to stay out of the war like it has been doing the last few years

If the Somali constitution had a similar article, Somaliland would’ve probably gotten it’s independence once the central government fell

The issue with Article 39 is that it was included for the sole purpose of allowing the Tigrayans to secede (since they had political hegemony at both the federal and regional level). Now that’s not the case. Technically the Oromos could do the same but like all ethnic groups, no one wants to secede when they’re in power (with the exception of the Somalis).

 

[seldiboy]

You are raising similar points as M G Berhe, even if he is a die-hard Tigray nationalist.

How do you draw a distinction between anarchy and disintegration? And how does no single group wielding enough power for dominance, like Tigray in the 90s, prevent an eventual disintegration?

At the speedy rate security conditions are deteriorating in and around Adids, economic hardship where Abiy is begging IMF and Work Bank, and with Afwerki aggressively arming himself with Iranian drones and superior air power along with Tigray and Habasha, what shall we call that if not alliance?

Apologies. I was a bit legalistic with my definition of disintegration, with it being a proper political balkanisation of Ethiopia à la Yugoslavia. I can’t see any relevant international governing body wanting to facilitate the balkanisation of Ethiopia along ethnic lines since it would set a nasty precedent for the rest of Africa. Anarchy would be de-facto disintegration. I think the presence of a dominant faction would just make the the the slim likelihood of a redrawing of political boundaries more probable.

As for Iranian drones, I can’t say if that’s true or false. Shabiya is very tight lipped about their arsenal. Although Osman, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, was in Iran last week so that could be a hint .

But yes, back to that alliance axis, while they do all have a common enemy in Abiy, they all hate each other much more. I imagine they would cannibalise each other first (The two Eritrean civil wars and the TPLF dissolution of the TLF come to mind). Especially after the conclusion of the Tigray War, everyone is very wary of the “enemy of my enemy” approach to these matters.

 

[Burqad]

Somali region doesn’t exist. All clans will go to war once a “secession” of the Somali region occurs. I’m 100% sure Ciise areas would join Djibouti and Isaaq areas will be protected by SL forces and annexed. This mythical Somali Galbeed state will never happen

K5 will inherit whole divisions of the Ethiopian army and it has like 20k liyuu troops. Unironically we will all be lucky if they don’t decide to take over the rest of Somalia.

 

[Mayor]

No need to think too hard about this if a civil breaks out ONLF will take over the name “liyuu police” will be changed to Ogaden national defence forces ONDF. Crap names like k5 Somali region srs dds will be banned the place will be called Ogaden and this will be the flag.
View attachment 313942
Ogaden exports will include but not limited to oil, gold, diamonds, fertilizers, livestock….etc.

Ogaden is the only part of Ethiopia that could survive as its own country. As an independent country you can finally start digging for oil since oil workers won’t have to worry about getting smoked by ONLF. Plus you’d have access to all of Somalias ports so it would basically act as if it wasn’t a landlocked nation

But which areas do you think would be included in an Ogaden state? I know the Isaaq part of Hawd would probably join SL, the MX areas would probably join GM, MJ would probably join PL, Dhulbahante parts would join SSC-Khatumo, and Sitti would probably join Awdal. I guess that leaves the Absame and Kombe parts to form their own state? I don’t think the Hawiye parts border any Hawiye states in Somalia so they’d probably form a state with you guys right?

 

[Mayor]

Somali region doesn’t exist. All clans will go to war once a “secession” of the Somali region occurs. I’m 100% sure Ciise areas would join Djibouti and Isaaq areas will be protected by SL forces and annexed. This mythical Somali Galbeed state will never happen

Yea I think Isaaq areas will join SL, DH areas will join SSC-Khatumo, MJ areas will join Puntland, and MX areas will join Galmudug

But I doubt the Cisse/Gadabuursi would join Djibouti. IOG doesn’t care about them which is odd because I don’t even think IOG is a native Djiboutian, I’m pretty sure he himself is originally from Diridhaba

Cisse/Gadabuursi lands would probably join Awdal. Now whether or not Awdal will be apart of SL is not something I can comment on. That’s something reer Awdal will have to decide for themselves

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

Ethiopia insight is pro Tigrayan TPLF news site.

The owners of Ethiopia insight condoned TPLFs war on Somalia and Ogaden from 2006-2018.

Eritrea had every right to intervene in Tigray after Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front started war in November 2020 shot 15 long range missiles to Eritrea and illegally occupied 200 square kilometers of Eritrea‘s Badme region.

I am familiar with InSight; what do you make of the assertion that Afwerki is forming alliance against Abiy inside .Et?

 

[OreoMcflurry]

Ogaden is the only part of Ethiopia that could survive as its own country. As an independent country you can finally start digging for oil since oil workers won’t have to worry about getting smoked by ONLF. Plus you’d have access to all of Somalias ports so it would basically act as if it wasn’t a landlocked nation

But which areas do you think would be included in an Ogaden state? I know the Isaaq part of Hawd would probably join SL, the MX areas would probably join GM, MJ would probably join PL, Dhulbahante parts would join SSC-Khatumo, and Sitti would probably join Awdal. I guess that leaves the Absame and Kombe parts to form their own state? I don’t think the Hawiye parts border any Hawiye states in Somalia so they’d probably form a state with you guys right?

Oil wells have already been drilled all that’s needed is to dig oil and transport it. Ogaden shares Hawd with Isaaq it’s not majority Isaaq if u didn’t know. Marexan settle outside the border already. Idk the population of Majerten walahi. As I mentioned previously idk what will happen to Sitti bc the Ciise clan seem to be disintegrated you won’t see reer Jabuuti sympathizing for Sitti residents when oromos/Afars attack them. Idk what will happen to Hawiye clans either

 

[Mayor]

Oil wells have already been drilled all that’s needed is to dig oil and transport it.

Interesting, I didn’t know this. Hopefully Ethiopia will collapse before they start digging so you want have to share any of the money and can keep it amongst yourselves. Which clans live on the most oil, is it mostly in Ogaden land?

Ogaden shares Hawd with Isaaq it’s not majority Isaaq if u didn’t know.

Yea I know Hawd is shared that’s why I said the Isaaq part would join SL, I’ve heard that many of the Isaaq areas there already use the SL Shilling and stopped using the Bir

Marexan settle outside the border already.

I didn’t know that about MX. I’m guess many of them already moved to Cabuudwaaq district?

As I mentioned previously idk what will happen to Sitti bc the Ciise clan seem to be disintegrated you won’t see reer Jabuuti sympathizing for Sitti residents when oromos/Afars attack them.

I agree with you about Cisse/Gadabuursi lands. IOG doesn’t care about them even though he’s reer Diridhaba himself. I believe the Dir areas are more likely to join Awdal imo

 

[OreoMcflurry]

Interesting, I didn’t know this. Hopefully Ethiopia will collapse before they start digging so you want have to share any of the money and can keep it amongst yourselves? Which clans live on the most oil, is it mostly in Ogaden land?

Yea I know Hawd is shared that’s why I said the Isaaq part would join SL, I’ve heard that many of the Isaaq areas there already use the SL Shilling and stopped using the Bir

I didn’t know that about MX. I’m guess many of them already moved to Cabuudwaaq district?

I agree with you about Cisse/Gadabuursi lands. IOG doesn’t care about them even though he’s reer Diridhaba himself. I believe the Dir areas are more likely to join Awdal imo

There needs to be more wells drilled in other districts it seems they only drilled in certain districts where the exploration was done (not Absame districts Im not sure).

I didn’t know Isaaq started using Somaliland shillings if that’s true then it’s amazing wallahi I fucking hate these xabashis I love any Somali that despises them and their currency.

 

[Mayor]

There needs to be more wells drilled in other districts it seems they only drilled in certain districts where the exploration was done (not Absame districts Im not sure).

Wow you guys were really blessed with a lot of oil. Inshalllah the Oromos, Tigrayans, and Amhara all start chimping out soon so you guys can get your independence and keep that oil money to yourselves

I didn’t know Isaaq started using Somaliland shillings if that’s true then it’s amazing wallahi I fucking hate these xabashis I love any Somali that despises them and their currency.

Yea @mohammdov is from Daroor and he said that he uses SL shilling and not Birr

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

@seldiboy @EritreanPost_
Out of Abiy circles on the wire, there are reports he is gearing up for a showdown with Eritrea with a two-point plan:

• Removing Afwerki (pushing him out of the way is the language being used), and
• Restoration of the old .Et empire bringing in Eritrea back into the fold, and by extension, here is the interesting part:
  • Occupy Assab and Dakhla islands to regain access to the sea, docking stations of .Et's commercial and war ships, as recently refurbished with a new fleet supplied by France.

In other words, this is now a deja vu of circa. 90s and pre.

 

[X29]

@seldiboy @EritreanPost_
Out of Abiy circles on the wire, there are reports he is gearing up for a showdown with Eritrea with a two-point plan:

• Removing Afwerki (pushing him out of the way is the language being used), and
• Restoration of the old .Et empire bringing in Eritrea back into the fold, and by extension, here is the interesting part:
  • Occupy Assab and Dakhla islands to regain access to the sea, docking stations of .Et's commercial and war ships, as recently refurbished with a new fleet supplied by France.

In other words, this is now a deja vu of circa. 90s and pre.

What do you think this will entail do you think they could win a war

 

[seldiboy]

@seldiboy @EritreanPost_
Out of Abiy circles on the wire, there are reports he is gearing up for a showdown with Eritrea with a two-point plan:

• Removing Afwerki (pushing him out of the way is the language being used), and
• Restoration of the old .Et empire bringing in Eritrea back into the fold, and by extension, here is the interesting part:
  • Occupy Assab and Dakhla islands to regain access to the sea, docking stations of .Et's commercial and war ships, as recently refurbished with a new fleet supplied by France.

In other words, this is now a deja vu of circa. 90s and pre.

No chance of it happening. Meles tried and failed in 1998. The Ethiopian military is horrendously mismanaged too.

Afwerki has become Africa’s Assad. A necessary evil that stops the Horn descending into abject chaos. As much as he’s reviled by the West, a post-Afwerki Eritrea leaves too much up in the air for them to support him going. With Putin recently giving the greenlight for a logistics centre in Massawa and a naval base on Dahlak, I can’t see BRICS doing much for Ethiopia either.

 

[seldiboy]

What do you think this will entail do you think they could win a war

Bit graphic so be warned. ^This is what happened last time they went to blows. Ethiopia lost 6x as many troops for some border towns and failed in their objective of Assab + regime change.

Remember that this was when Ethiopia still had a big contingent of ex-Derg troops to mobilise and before Eritrea became a garrison state that conscripted every able man.

 

[Abdisamadi]

@seldiboy @EritreanPost_
Out of Abiy circles on the wire, there are reports he is gearing up for a showdown with Eritrea with a two-point plan:

• Removing Afwerki (pushing him out of the way is the language being used), and
• Restoration of the old .Et empire bringing in Eritrea back into the fold, and by extension, here is the interesting part:
  • Occupy Assab and Dakhla islands to regain access to the sea, docking stations of .Et's commercial and war ships, as recently refurbished with a new fleet supplied by France.

In other words, this is now a deja vu of circa. 90s and pre.

Abiy's goal is clear, take out the Eritreans while the Oromo are still an ally and while he has a port turn on them , then when he has all the land he needs centralise power in Addis Ababa.

This man is planning to rule for the next 30 years at least.

 

[X29]

Bit graphic so be warned. ^This is what happened last time they went to blows. Ethiopia lost 6x as many troops for some border towns and failed in their objective of Assab + regime change.

Remember that this was when Ethiopia still had a big contingent of ex-Derg troops to mobilise and before Eritrea became a garrison state that conscripted every able man.

What was the war about

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

What do you think this will entail do you think they could win a war

I think not. Abiy is well-spent, now sustaining himself on borrowed sustenance in air hardware, against many local fire fighting expeditions, and is no much for Afwerki, a seasoned, if hardened old guard, with a great deal of experience and strategical warfare under his belt, and between then, I would bet my chips on Afwerki, even if the numbers are against him.

Afwerki's Achilles's heel now is the people of Eritrea, esp. current generation, tired of war, lost confidence in his leadership, and many have been disillusioned with the promised happily-ever-after future, which has not been realised, as of yet at least, with many now beginning to question if it was worth it.

No chance of it happening. Meles tried and failed in 1998. The Ethiopian military is horrendously mismanaged too.

Afwerki has become Africa’s Assad. A necessary evil that stops the Horn descending into abject chaos. As much as he’s reviled by the West, a post-Afwerki Eritrea leaves too much up in the air for them to support him going. With Putin recently giving the greenlight for a logistics centre in Massawa and a naval base on Dahlak, I can’t see BRICS doing much for Ethiopia either.

True, yet the question is: does the current generation of Eritreans have a shadow of the stamina, mental strength, and fortitude of their fathers to withstand Abiy, if the unfortunate eventuality comes to pass?

 

[seldiboy]

What was the war about

“border conflict” although it’s a lot more complex. too long for me to write out

 

[Yami]

No need to think too hard about this if a civil breaks out ONLF will take over the name “liyuu police” will be changed to Ogaden national defence forces ONDF. Crap names like k5 Somali region srs dds will be banned the place will be called Ogaden and this will be the flag.
View attachment 313942
Ogaden exports will include but not limited to oil, gold, diamonds, fertilizers, livestock….etc.

Should be called Soomaali Galbeed or Awfat. Ogaden alienates all the other clans indigenous to the area.

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

As the old Bard opined 'What is in a name?'

Obligation upon ALL to defend and protect .So territories. Expect not a SINGLE community to bear the brunt and weight of the defence during hard times only for others to claim a share of the pie in good times in belligerent overtones over the tannoy.

In it for all at all times, or perish at the pyre one at a time!