Is Ethiopia’s disintegration an inevitable and necessary evil?

[Abdisamadi]

As evident, Abiy isn’t a big supporter of the right of self-determination. It goes against his vision of a might Ethiopia dominated by Addis. However, given the recent troubles and the ongoing issues in the country, it’s unlikely that Abiy will open another can worm in the near future. Otherwise, he may be begging for his own demise.

Amharas have always been categorically against that clause. Their fellow Ethiopianist (mostly minorities) have been empowered and given more power, thanks to the right of self-determination, so I think some of them do reconcile being a nationalist with retaining that law to some extent.

Oromos may be Abiy current support base as he’s pandering to them, but many of them support article 39. This is despite them being fine with some do Abiy’s centralization of power (to Oromos) and furthering their own agenda. Alliances are not permanent in Ethiopia after all, so their position isn’t surprising.

Somalis wouldn’t entertain such a reform, but we don’t have much power or say in the federal arena, besides Abiy’s allies. Tigrayans are totally against it too and they will surely will pushback. What’s interesting is that despite the Tigrayan administration being installed by Abiy, they won’t hesitate to express their displeasure with the gov’t.

Recently, there were rumors that the recently settled Amharas in western Tigray (while their people are displaced) could be given a referendum using article 39, but the Tigrayan president openly objected to such a move.

Anything is possible in the future, but nothing of the sort will happen soon.

The Semetic minorities like Silte and Gurage are pretty much Amhar from the people I’ve talked to, while the Cushitic ones like Sidamas are aligned with Oromos. Along with other minorities that have grudges against Ethiopianist regimes

https://theconversation.com/why-young-ethiopians-in-oromia-and-sidama-fought-for-change-161440

While we are fighting amongst themselves Ethiopians are picking sides for the future conflict

 

[Daadhi Tarree]

The Semetic minorities like Silte and Gurage are pretty much Amhar from the people I’ve talked to, while the Cushitic ones like Sidamas are aligned with Oromos. Along with other minorities that have grudges against Ethiopianist regimes

https://theconversation.com/why-young-ethiopians-in-oromia-and-sidama-fought-for-change-161440

While we are fighting amongst themselves Ethiopians are picking sides for the future conflict

Silte hate Amharas but your right about Gurage

 

[Abdisamadi]

Silte hate Amharas but your right about Gurage

Do they really? What I’ve noticed is Habesha Muslims tend to either be pro Somali/Arab or pro Habesh.

 

[Daadhi Tarree]

Do they really? What I’ve noticed is Habesha Muslims tend to either be pro Somali/Arab or pro Habesh.

Yeah they do bro

 

[Abdisamadi]

Yeah they do bro

Now that you say it I do recall some habeshas saying Silte are professional scammers

 

[Burqad]

Do they really? What I’ve noticed is Habesha Muslims tend to either be pro Somali/Arab or pro Habesh.

Silte claim to be descended from Somali soldiers who got lost in the 1600’s, they are very pro-Somali and their leaders are called Garaads.

longer discussion

Traditionally, the Silte are a Muslim people sharing perceived genealogical ties. They are the descendants of a Muslim leader who participated in the historic military expedition against Christian Abyssinia in the 16th century. However, after the political and economic incorporation of the Silte into the modern Ethiopian state in the late 19th century, they have emerged as part of the Gurage people, who were recognized as the most industrious "ethnic group" among the Ethiopian nationals. Finally, under the federal state system, the ruling party recognized the Silte as a "nationality" totally distinct from the Gurage.

The Gurage were often seen as an ethnic group with strong solidarity, but their emergence was closely related to the state ideology of the 20th century Ethiopia. In other words, the Gurage were "created" as the bearer of the national economy of modern Ethiopia. On the other hand, the formation of contemporary Silte identity was not totally dictated by the state authority. Rather, it was a sort of hegemonic process in which the state ideology interplays with people's activities, resulting in the formation of a new "nationality"

 

[Djokovic]

I feel like there population stats are fake it doesn’t match up with the population of there biggest cities. I feel like it’s being propped up by yahuuds always when it’s on the verge of collapse some random country comes and does some weird shit and all of a sudden there’s regime change

 

[Himmler]

Explain? I want to see why you think it wont happen.

I’m not sure tbh but all I know is Ethiopia seems to endure.

A balkanised Ethiopia wouldn’t last as the individual states simply wouldn’t be able to sustain themselves

 

[Himmler]

I think it was more to do with our natural disposition of being egalitarians, and history of not bowing nor kowtowing to the European overlords, which sealed our fate. Small population footprint might have been one of many factors incl. our being Muslims.

Somalis “natural disposition of being egalitarians”

 

[Mayor]

A balkanised Ethiopia wouldn’t last as the individual states simply wouldn’t be able to sustain themselves

Couldn't an independent K5 finally capitalize off of their oil? At their population size, that could probably sustain them

 

[NidarNidar]

This is the true map of somaligalbed before oromo migrations and fake tplf borders
Bale and hararghe is ours
View attachment 313571

They originate in or around Southwest Ethiopia and their migration only started in the 16th century, if this was a map of Europe they would be Germanic tribes, they swallowed up small Cushitic/omotic states that were tributaries to the Ethiopian Empire.

 

[Daadhi Tarree]

They originate in or around Southwest Ethiopia and their migration only started in the 16th century, if this was a map of Europe they would be Germanic tribes, they swallowed up small Cushitic/omotic states that were tributaries to the Ethiopian Empire.

Southeast Ethiopia not southwest

 

[Burqad]

Couldn't an independent K5 finally capitalize off of their oil? At their population size, that could probably sustain them

Independent K5 would be Bahrain and trade with it would help drag the other 4 Somalia’s up to 2nd world status.

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

Reports from .Et indicate all roads to Adis are blocked. Nothing is in or out. Oromos on the prowl, Amharas on the scavenge. Let us see how long this lasts before it collapses from the inside!

Somalis “natural disposition of being egalitarians”

Oh you would not know what that entails even if it smacks you in that grimy gob!

 

[Himmler]

Oh you would not know what that entails even if it smacks you in that grimy gob!

If you think Somalis have a natural tendency towards egalitarianism than you must be an ajnabi or 68iq there is nothing egalitarian about Somalia, saying this as a Somali woman is wild lol

 

[GemState]

@GaradShabeel @𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈

What do you think of the potential of Religious nationalism in Ethiopia? It is IMO the cleanest way to break Ethiopia, with the successor countries still being viable economically.

I'm aware generally ethnicity > Religion in Ethiopia but none of the Regions are viable by themselves. They'll need to be attached to others

 

[Burqad]

Reports from .Et indicate all roads to Adis are blocked. Nothing is in or out. Oromos on the prowl, Amharas on the scavenge. Let us see how long this lasts before it collapses from the inside!

I trust you brother, but do you have any links I could give to the cynics?

 

[Mayor]

@GaradShabeel @𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈

What do you think of the potential of Religious nationalism in Ethiopia? It is IMO the cleanest way to break Ethiopia, with the successor countries still being viable economically.

I'm aware generally ethnicity > Religion in Ethiopia but none of the Regions are viable by themselves. They'll need to be attached to others
View attachment 313825

An oil producing independent K5 that has access to Somali ports should be able to sustain itself imo

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

@GaradShabeel @𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈

What do you think of the potential of Religious nationalism in Ethiopia? It is IMO the cleanest way to break Ethiopia, with the successor countries still being viable economically.

I'm aware generally ethnicity > Religion in Ethiopia but none of the Regions are viable by themselves. They'll need to be attached to others
View attachment 313825

I do not know, but would think not, for Ethiopians, from what I have observed, in general are nationalists, even those who despise its grandiose ethno-dominant tendencies. Reason: Other ethnic groups, even non-Christians could hardly envisage .Et along religious lines. Some of the memoirs of Sr political leaders I read, the last one being Goshu Wolde's, attest to that fact.

The Oromo might not possess the human capital at the moment, but could potentially swallow the rest forging one in their shadow, but what will that look like, I have not the faintest idea.

I would posit ethnicity carries greater weight than religion, and is headed that direction considering brewing conflicts. Case in point being [we] Somalis are not 'really' considered Ethiopians in political discourse, and for a reason, albeit make up the 3rd largest ethnic group, against our will of course. Even if ONLF had been completely disarmed, the biggest, if saddest chapter in S Galbeed's history, the Somali region is now one of the few regions unperturbed by the confilct, but for how long? And when it does touch it [DDS], then what will it look like? What will its future be?

With respect to the viablity question, I absolutely agree, and it is factor I always raise with my rational SL thinkers, who also agree.

Postscript:
Another historical factor to consider: when Lij Iyasu took over as the emperor, and converted to Islam, he was swiftly dethroned with the help of European powers (Christians) replacing him with a female emperor. This was not just an accident, but .Et is considered the 3rd seat of Christianity after Greece and Russia ( US is no longer in the roster courtesy of Obamarama).

But then again, previous attempts had been made, and all dwarfed; will now be different? Even more so, will the West accept Oromo-led Muslim rise to power? They could hardly accept Ikhwan assume power in Masr or Algeria owing to its implications in the region, and further afield.

An oil producing independent K5 that has access to Somali ports should be able to sustain itself imo

The case of S Galbeed is different, for it abutts the entire .So, utilising its resrources incl. people.

I trust you brother, but do you have any links I could give to the cynics?

Sorry mate, it was sourced through a native of Adis, who has been stuck in there for weeks, and can not venture out to reach his home town.

If you think Somalis have a natural tendency towards egalitarianism than you must be an ajnabi or 68iq there is nothing egalitarian about Somalia, saying this as a Somali woman is wild lol

If you could look up what constitutes egalitarianism in the political context, then read upon the true character of a Somali nomad.

 

[X29]

Reports from .Et indicate all roads to Adis are blocked. Nothing is in or out. Oromos on the prowl, Amharas on the scavenge. Let us see how long this lasts before it collapses from the inside!

Oh you would not know what that entails even if it smacks you in that grimy gob!

What is it meaning is abiy finished?