Is federalism 'treaty' good or bad for .So?

[GaradShabeel]

I can see the logic of having 5-6 independent clan states aimed at preserving tribal homogeneity & I can see the logic of a unitary state aimed at pooling resources for larger national projects, economic and miltary maximization vis a vis our neighbour's, etc

With the current system you're ending up with a dysfunctional mess that will eventually break apart just on a more protracted timescale, while strongly minimizing the potential military & economic gains that a unitary state would bring, and still getting taken advantage of by Kenya/Ethiopia

Can't see why anyone would willingly choose something else tbh, seems half hearted to me

You're right that a centralized governance would entail a greater military and economic gains, but there're legitimate reason to have objections to such a governance structure.

We've seen the dangers of when you concentrate power in the capital in the past, with a coup, ending a young democratic state and turning it more authoritarian over time until the republic ceased to exist. Why risk the possibility of going back to the same costly mistakes? Are we not supposed to learn from our shortcomings?

De-centralizing and remaining a federal republic is the only prevention that can counter it. Yeah, the outcome would be a weaker federal gov't and thus overall country, but it's the price I think is worth paying to preserve our country.

And no, autonomous regions wouldn't make a difference either. We've already seen authoritarian tendencies with previous president; attempts of using violence to maintain grip on power, despite having 50k+ foreign troops in the country 'maintaining' peace, a weak army, half of the country being independent from Xamar, the other half mostly being under AS, two neighboring countries physically backing two FMS, the president barely being able to leave Villa Somalia etc.

Imagine how what would happen if the entire country was controlled from Villa Somalia? Who want's to risk having new rebels fighting the gov't and go back to the chaos of the civil war? Look at other countries in the region or in the continent as of recently, or even within Somalia in SL, I'd much rather have one failed federal state than the failure of the entire country. Anyone trying to overlook this are nothing short of ignorant.

 

[GemState]

De-centralizing and remaining a federal republic is the only prevention that can counter it. Yeah, the outcome would be a weaker federal gov't and thus overall country, but it's the price I think is worth paying to preserve our country.

Well no, Somalia doesn't exist, and it hasn't existed since 1991. How do you look at the last 32 years and think centralization is the problem? The problem was that MSB didn't hold elections and lost a monopoly on violence.

I really don't get this mentality, you do realize Somalia isn't even a federal country, it's an extremely loose confederation? Prior to the FGS establishment everyone was basically independent.

All I'm saying is Somalia will eventually have to choose between clan states or the nation-state and all that comes with it.

Currently we are stuck somewhere in between, we want a Somalia but abhor other Somalis having political control. The sooner we make this decision the easier any recovery will be.

I really dislike dishonesty on this topic, because it honestly feels like I'm being taken for a ride, it feels like everyone is just buying time for the next round.

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

How do you look at the last 32 years and think centralization is the problem? The problem was that MSB didn't hold elections and lost a monopoly on violence.

Wow, hmmmm,

 

[Hassan Garguute Buldanana]

I'm referring to traders transporting goods

Florida and California are not resource poor failed states on the periphery of Africa. Somalia's lack of resources means that the only real reliable way to raise funds will be through heavy taxation. When these federal states gain effective control of their territories, it'll be a regular thing.

The problem with Somalis is they want to have their cake and eat it. They want to pay lip service to a Somalia but will freak out at the idea of sharing a country/city with other Somalis. I don't see the point in lying to ourselves, just split the country up or take a huge leap of faith into creating a unitary state that is the most economically viable decision. Let Somalia go the way of Yugoslavia or an Indonesia, have a referendum on it

I don't think federalism will work in the south and unitary is out of the question for us in PL. I say go the Yugoslavia way and end this madness. Whoever wants to stick together, go for it

 

[bidenkulaha]

I don't think federalism will work in the south and unitary is out of the question for us in PL. I say go the Yugoslavia way and end this madness. Whoever wants to stick together, go for it

PL will not want to miss out after South Central centralises and reaps the economic gains

 

[GaradShabeel]

Well no, Somalia doesn't exist, and it hasn't existed since 1991. How do you look at the last 32 years and think centralization is the problem? The problem was that MSB didn't hold elections and lost a monopoly on violence.

Yes, the problem with MSB was not holding elections. But the timeline didn't start there tho. How did he ascend to power? Through elections? No, he consolidated power which was enabled by the disproportional authority the gov't (ie constitution) at the time had. If we instead had a power-sharing structure with devolutions, then it would've been harder for him to maintain power.

I also mentioned that, despite having a weak gov't, there've been attempts post-90s to follow in kacaan footstep and use violence to maintain power (beyond permitted). Imagine if we had a proper centralist gov't? This won't be the first nor the last time. Might as well minimize the risk now by reducing the power from the FGS to FMS. This can also affect the FMS; look at SL now. Again, better with one failed FMS than the entire country.

The last 30 years have also proved that some Somalis are better at ruling themselves and their regions than others, especially if not ruled from far away. Despite south-central Somalia and the capital being in chaos, northern and eastern Somalia underscored the importance of autonomy. Why suffer because other Somalis can't get along, when you can rule much better (at a local level)? I don't blame those who're now sceptical at the thought of handing over this power back to the central gov't.

But how did it work? It resembled the pre-colonial Somali 'countries' in theory. Centralism is more or less a foreign concept. The more decentralization we implement, the better and long-lasting future Somalia will have, since it conforms with our historical rule of local governance.

I really don't get this mentality, you do realize Somalia isn't even a federal country, it's an extremely loose confederation? Prior to the FGS establishment everyone was basically independent.

You're right. Not only were everyone independent prior to FGS, even today, there've never been an opportunity to fully implement the provisional constitution leading the way for the third republic. A thousand different factions are present today. I'd call our current stage, a transitional gov't until the constitution is finished and no longer a chapter 7 country.

 

[GaradShabeel]

All I'm saying is Somalia will eventually have to choose between clan states or the nation-state. Currently we are stuck somewhere in between. The sooner we make this decision the easier any recovery will be. I dislike dishonesty on this topic, because it honestly feels like I'm being taken for a ride, it feels like everyone is just buying time

The decision is already made, to your dismay. The FMS that make up Somalia today are here to stay. Some of them are homegrown, given more time to establish and will last longer. Others were made for the sake of it, without support from the locals, thus more dysfunctional.

In any case, there're also very little support for your vision of a 'nation-state' in today's Somalia. Otherwise, it would've been implemented long time ago, but it hasn't happened and will probably not happen either in the near future. And no gov't, nor IC, would ever agree to splitting Somalia into several new countries. So, you have to make the best of whatever we have today.

Your only hope lies within the Somali public, when the time arrives for 1p1v, that they vote against the ideology of their politicians currently representing them. Especially in FMS that rejects centralism. Other than this, a miracle can only change Somalia.

The question of clan-state and nation-state boils down to this; Nation-states will only work when we start preferring and prioritizing qaranimo/somalinimo over qabiil. That's not the case today, if we're honest with ourselves, even amongst most centralist proponents.

Some even use centralism (covertly) to push their qabiil interests, or just perefer that system because it benefits their qabiil more. Which is a dishonestly that I've observed from centralist Somalis rather than believing in the concept of 'nation-state' or at the very least, being frank about their intentions. With that said, you need a paradigm shift. It may happen in the future, but as of now? No.

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

Two points of reflection:
a) Power-sharing:
As stipulated in Article 3 of Founding Principles, sections (3 & 4), with respect to power-sharing, participatory consultative, and inclusivity in governance, and separation of powers, seeks to provide check and balance whilst preventing usurpation of power. This was intended to prevent a power hungry neophyte, or a bent warlord to dupe the public, amass power, pillage, and impair the nation, despite its recent history. This is wasted on the youngins advocating for a central authority, drunken on ‘monopoly on violence*’ theory sans wholly comprehending its ramifications. As a system, decentralised configuration, hence federalism was intended to avoid revisitation of previous nightmares, check 1969 – 2000s. Anti-federalist voices, in favour of the failed centralism system, now wish to do away with said principles, and thereby invaliding realised gains.

b) Executive branch:
Under Article 97, sections (1 & 2), powers entrusted unto and with the Executive Branch are defined, and rest with the Prime Minister. President has no role in the Executive Branch, with his powers, and authority constrained, as defined in Article 90. Trying to eliminate the Premiership, as proposed, seeks to award greater powers to the Presidency, accumulating undue powers, which violates the Constitution, for a VP has no authority nor mandate to check and/or balance the President. Again, this was a major article of contention, and was negotiated as such in the days of drafting the Charter, and was agreed it was the most viable solution forward. Anti-federalist forces now wish to dismantle agreed upon principles, through the backdoor, and thereby negating realised gains.

--------------------------------
* Monopoly on violence: What gets lost in discussing this theory is the the term “legitimate use of physical force”, and not at a whim of a leader, which negates its core premise; again, power largely rests with the public, and not with elected leaders alone, and in the event, a leader usurps power, sans consultation with the public, through representatives, then in almost all cases, it leads to failure of both said leader, and nation: if not in the immediate, then definitely in the long run.

By legitimate, it does not imply State is the ONLY one to use force, but [the] one entrusted to legitimately authorise in its use. Where there is an illegitimate intent of use of force, State is in violation, and must be stopped.

The theory, as attributed to M Weber made sense in feudalism, and not in representative modern nation states with mechanisms to rein in excessive usurpation of power by rogue leaders, case in point D Trump in ordering Sec. of Defence to annihilate Mexico, for its leader refused to go along with Trump’s “Mexico will pay for it [the wall]” bogus campaign promise to beguile the weary-eyed public. Other historically notable examples include Caesar in his multiple adventures, which resulted in his eventual downfall, or the US from H Truman in Vietnam to Bush Jr in his misadventures in the Middle East to B Obama's in seeking to obliterate the Muslim world in his spurious smile.

 

[Hassan Garguute Buldanana]

PL will not want to miss out after South Central centralises and reaps the economic gains

I rather we struggle than have to do anything with y'all.

 

[bidenkulaha]

I rather we struggle than have to do anything with y'all.

The average person isn’t making decisions tho. It’s the elites, when it suits PL elites to integrate into South-Central Somalia they will. I doubt they want to be economically isolated for too long

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

The average person isn’t making decisions tho. It’s the elites, when it suits PL elites to integrate into South-Central Somalia they will. I doubt they want to be economically isolated for too long

And by inference, if that means you are one of the elites in the decision-making circles for Xamar and its environs, then this nation is f@cked on a grand scale.

 

[reer]

Well no, Somalia doesn't exist, and it hasn't existed since 1991. How do you look at the last 32 years and think centralization is the problem? The problem was that MSB didn't hold elections and lost a monopoly on violence.

I really don't get this mentality, you do realize Somalia isn't even a federal country, it's an extremely loose confederation? Prior to the FGS establishment everyone was basically independent.

All I'm saying is Somalia will eventually have to choose between clan states or the nation-state and all that comes with it.

Currently we are stuck somewhere in between, we want a Somalia but abhor other Somalis having political control. The sooner we make this decision the easier any recovery will be.

I really dislike dishonesty on this topic, because it honestly feels like I'm being taken for a ride, it feels like everyone is just buying time for the next round.

somalis like to lie. the current progression of somalia is on its way to be under kenya/ethiopia/au. but having a so called president and a qashin parliament and a bunch of ministers in a 2km radius and being practically different countries protected by different amisom factions they think theyre on the right track. they like to forget they get frisked searched by amisom in aden adde airport. ultimate humiliation. or another likely scenario is kabul 2.0 during/after amisom exit.

 

[bidenkulaha]

@𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈 federalism is quite easy to pick off.

I know a few Cayr guys higher up and they say the overall feeling in the gov is to weaken it. As a clan we don’t benefit much from the current set up and prefer direct control from Xamar to degmo without much in between. There’s a lot of other clans and MPs who have similar views to this.

There’s a rumoured HSM visit to Galkayo soon, a lot of PL MPs are in Dhusamareb right now meeting with the President. He’s trying to sell the new constitution to them and get the 180+ MPs. I notice Leelkase MPs are close to HSM’s gov. They would for example benefit from a direct Xamar to Goldogob relationship where HSM can bypass PL and offer them things like FGS schools and hospitals etc. I bet we can find similar allies across the country everywhere.

Your biggest problem is many major clans are not fans of federalism. There’ll always be a strong centralist alliance unless that is fixed. Many clans feel marginalised by it.

 

[RiceMuncher]

The last 30 years have also proved that some Somalis are better at ruling themselves and their regions than others, especially if not ruled from far away. Despite south-central Somalia and the capital being in chaos, northern and eastern Somalia underscored the importance of autonomy. Why suffer because other Somalis can't get along, when you can rule much better (at a local level)? I don't blame those

That's not for lack of trying. HSM was one of the nabadoon at the time risking his life trying to achieve peace in the capital. There has been a meddler keeping the turmoil going until the ICU drove the warlords out. There were many nabadoons that were killed after isha prayer walking home. There were many aqoon yahan and activist killed. "Qorayga dhig, qalinka qaado" is from an activist that got killed.

No one knows til today who killed all those people. AS ma jirin xiligaa. Anyone who wanted to keep Somalia as a failed state did their work diligently. No clear winner is obvious for us to see. We taught Z how to fight the Derg in the hope of their balkanization. We lost that game and we sow what we reaped

 

[GaradShabeel]

That's not for lack of trying. HSM was one of the nabadoon at the time risking his life trying to achieve peace in the capital. There has been a meddler keeping the turmoil going until the ICU drove the warlords out. There were many nabadoons that were killed after isha prayer walking home. There were many aqoon yahan and activist killed. "Qorayga dhig, qalinka qaado" is from an activist that got killed.

No one knows til today who killed all those people. AS ma jirin xiligaa. Anyone who wanted to keep Somalia as a failed state did their work diligently. No clear winner is obvious for us to see. We taught Z how to fight the Derg in the hope of their balkanization. We lost that game and we sow what we reaped

Yeah, I should not have generalized. I know that there were plenty of clan elders, activists, and even more civilians who wanted nothing more than peace and stability, and willing to concede in all regards and offer their lives to make it happen. And many people ended up paying the ultimate price for what they believed in.

Unfortunately, the warlords and their collaborators, from within and outside the country, benefited the most and managed to keep the upper-hand and held the country hostage. Which is why it was not possible to end the conflict beyond stalemates, despite numerous efforts. Their personal interests simply overrode the nation's best interest.

It seems like we haven't learned much from the civil war era today either. This applies to entire country and all Somalis outside of it too. A small disagreement can lead to a major clan war. The sooner the country recovers and establishes institutions that the public can trust, the better it is and I hope that it will relieve us from many of the problems we see today.

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

@𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈 federalism is quite easy to pick off.

From the sound of it, you are quite the fantasist. How long have been following .So politics?

I know a few Cayr guys higher up and they say the overall feeling in the gov is to weaken it. As a clan we don’t benefit much from the current set up and prefer direct control from Xamar to degmo without much in between. There’s a lot of other clans and MPs who have similar views to this.

What is Cayr?

 

[bidenkulaha]

From the sound of it, you are quite the fantasist. How long have been following .So politics?

None of what I’ve said is a fantasy. Your PL is even panicking over a rumoured simple Galkayo HSM visit. They were particularly bothered about FGS’ Sacad, Leelkaase shir


Now imagine if HSM wanted to cut PL to size, would only take a few SNA and a bit of money to empower marginalised clans within PL

PL MPs in Dhusamareb

 

[bidenkulaha]

PL banning PL MPs from their side of Galkayo this is the benefits to ‘federalism’ I assume and shows how secure it all is

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

None of what I’ve said is a fantasy. Your PL is even panicking over a rumoured simple Galkayo HSM visit. They were particularly bothered about FGS’ Sacad, Leelkaase shir


Now imagine if HSM wanted to cut PL to size, would only take a few SNA and a bit of money to empower marginalised clans within PL

PL MPs in Dhusamareb

Go for it 'marna taagtaa, marna tabartaa'.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

I rather we struggle than have to do anything with y'all.

Any plausible situation where Puntland becomes independent means the end of Somalia. He thinks that as SL and PL leave, JL and KGS will remain part of the rump Hawiye state (South Central). It reminds me of Serbia thinking that Slovenia leaving would not mean the breakup of Yugoslavia, and being shocked when Bosnia voted to leave.

There is no Somalia if Somaliland is granted independence, let alone Puntland. No gets to leave Somalia, that is the one thing a majority of Somalis and the international community agree on. No Somali parliament will EVER allow secession. So Puntland will never get to leave, I have given up on this.

So, we have to shape the FGS to suit our needs. As the largest and most capable FMS we have disproportionate influence on the FGS's development path. Somaliland is not at the table to stymie us. This outsize influence that Puntland has on the future of the FGS is what Hawiye, including Hasan Sheekh, is resentful of.

The only advantage Hawiye have is control over foreign aid. They are abusing this aid in full view of the donors, which raises the likelihood that donors will begin to earmark funds for specific FMS.