Kaah-Wadani alliance officially announced

[Rabiic]

hj need to vote as one like last time right now the majority is xirsi and mahmoud hashi but some are still gonna vote for kulmiye because of ina kaahin. That's good if gx as a block vote for wadani. Hy need their turn lol so they can stop the buuq

If majority of HJ voted Wadani for presidency and Kaah for political party Biixi will struggle to come back because he will be facing a combined HJ + GX voting block.

 

[Rabiic]

Do HY/GX care less about independence and recognition than HA? Not very familiar with Somaliland’s internal politics.

HJ, GX and HA are equal when it comes to the issue of recognition, some of the minority clans like Dhulbahante are against independence for clan reasons, there are also some diaspora Gadabursi who make noises every now and then but Isaaq and Dir inside the country are serious about the recognition quest.

 

[AP123]

If majority of HJ voted Wadani for presidency and Kaah for political party Biixi will struggle to come back because he will be facing a combined HJ + GX voting block.

Hj and ha alliance run deep though from the habar habar wars so I don't know if their gonna desert biixi for gx. But shit changes.

 

[Rabiic]

Hj and ha alliance run deep though from the habar habar wars so I don't know if their gonna desert biixi for gx. But shit changes.

New alliances form all the time, there was a time when HA Ciise Muuse were deep in alliance with Gadabursi and GX and voted against HJ candidate Silanyo, so this should not come as a major shock. A HJ GX alliance would make sense given that Somaliland is facing major threats from Somalia in the the east.

 

[Nin123]

HJ, GX and HA are equal when it comes to the issue of recognition, some of the minority clans like Dhulbahante are against independence for clan reasons, there are also some diaspora Gadabursi who make noises every now and then but Isaaq and Dir inside the country are serious about the recognition quest.

Minority? Ssc annihilate the entire isaaq army.

 

[Rabiic]

Minority? Ssc annihilate the entire isaaq army.

Dhulbahante is a small minority in Somaliland population wise. According to the 2014 UNFPA estimate, all of Sool including the Isaaq inhabited Caynaba district which is the second largest in Sool come to 9% of Somaliland's population which is tiny.

Most people dont understand just how large Isaaq is.

 

[Nin123]

Dhulbahante is a small minority in Somaliland population wise. According to the 2014 UNFPA estimate, all of Sool including the Isaaq inhabited Caynaba district which is the second largest in Sool come to 9% of Somaliland's population which is tiny.

View attachment 334284

Most people dont understand just how large Isaaq is.

Still you got your ass kicked plus Dhulbahante have huge population in togdheer.

 

[Rabiic]

Still you got your ass kicked plus Dhulbahante have huge population in togdheer.

You can substitute the buuhoodle population with Caynaba, so their population inside Somaliland is still around 8-9% which is a small to medium sized clan equivalent to Arab.

If you look at the Arab neighbourhood of Hargeisa (stadium area) you will see it has a larger population than all Dhulbahante in Sool.

In terms of population Somaliland has a tiered system:

Large clans: Habar Jeclo, Garxajis, Habar Awal
Medium to large clans: Gadabursi, Arab
Medium to small clans: Dhulbahante
Small clans: Toljecle, Ayoub, Ciise, Warsangeli
Tiny clans: Madhibaan, Gahayle, Ugaaslabe, Magaadle, Akisho

 

[Nin123]

You can substitute the buuhoodle population with Caynaba, so their population inside Somaliland is still around 8-9% which is a small to medium sized clan equivalent to Arab.

If you look at the Arab neighbourhood of Hargeisa (stadium area) you will see it has a larger population than all Dhulbahante in Sool.

In terms of population Somaliland has a tiered system:

Large clans: Habar Jeclo, Garxajis, Habar Awal
Medium to large clans: Gadabursi, Arab
Medium to small clans: Dhulbahante
Small clans: Toljecle, Ayoub, Ciise, Warsangeli
Tiny clans: Madhibaan, Gahayle, Ugaaslabe, Magaadle, Akisho

Pls go and check this thread all way up to August 25.

War in Sool

SL troops tried to enter the city but were confronted, today is the final day of the elders summit and they're trying to establish themselves in the city before it concludes.

www.somalispot.com

Ssc destroy and unarmed your people.

 

[Rabiic]

Pls go and check this thread all way up to August 25.

War in Sool

SL troops tried to enter the city but were confronted, today is the final day of the elders summit and they're trying to establish themselves in the city before it concludes.

www.somalispot.com

Ssc destroy and unarmed your people.

We are talking about population figures, and Dhulbahante is a small clan inside Somaliland. I have added the UNFPA source up so you can check that yourself

 

[AP123]

Dhulbahante is a small minority in Somaliland population wise. According to the 2014 UNFPA estimate, all of Sool including the Isaaq inhabited Caynaba district which is the second largest in Sool come to 9% of Somaliland's population which is tiny.

View attachment 334284

Most people dont understand just how large Isaaq is.

The Isaaq are estimated to number 3-4 million according to a 2015 estimate.[18].

That was 9 years. Isaaq are laandheere. We probably hit 5 mill by now

 

[attash]

Dhulbahante is a small minority in Somaliland population wise. According to the 2014 UNFPA estimate, all of Sool including the Isaaq inhabited Caynaba district which is the second largest in Sool come to 9% of Somaliland's population which is tiny.

View attachment 334284

Most people dont understand just how large Isaaq is.

What is this cap

The British already did a clan census in their colony and these are the results:

 

[NidarNidar]

What is this cap

The British already did a clan census in their colony and these are the results:

View attachment 334313

The British rarely went into the interior, and the majority of the clans were hostile to them.

 

[Rabiic]

What is this cap

The British already did a clan census in their colony and these are the results:

View attachment 334313

You are bringing up 1951 estimates because the 2014 numbers are so shocking to you.

If you want to talk about an actual census the one from 1975 is even worse for Dhulbahante. The Nugaal region which combined the Sool districts of Dhulbahante and Nugaal region of modern day Puntland had 2% of the population of the Somali Republic:

By comparison, Togdheer had 8% of the population. Dhulbahante in terms of population are a very small clan

 

[Rabiic]

The Isaaq are estimated to number 3-4 million according to a 2015 estimate.[18].

That was 9 years. Isaaq are laandheere. We probably hit 5 mill by now

Isaaq were 22% of the Somali Republic, larger than Hawiye, Darod and Raxanweyn:

the chart above includes many non Hawiye clans to the Hawiye total, its like adding Gadabursi as a subclan of Isaaq. If you remove non Hawiye clans like Ajuraan, Degodia and Xawaadle, Hawiye probably falls much lower than 25%.

On the other hand if you add Gadabursi and Ciise to Isaaq you get 29% of the total population.

 

[attash]

You are bringing up 1951 estimates because the 2014 numbers are so shocking to you.

If you want to talk about an actual census the one from 1975 is even worse for Dhulbahante. The Nugaal region which combined the Sool districts of Dhulbahante and Nugaal region of modern day Puntland had 2% of the population of the Somali Republic:

View attachment 334317
View attachment 334318

By comparison, Togdheer had 8% of the population. Dhulbahante in terms of population are a very small clan

I brought up 1951 because it is the only explicitly clan focused census we have. Provincial population censuses are not reliable because provinces are mixed, so you never know the exact proportion that each clan has. Another issue is that these censuses focus on urban populations and neglect rural ones. Most of Sool's population is rural. Additionally, reer miyi move around alot, so you would have a lot of them moving south to Ethiopia during some seasons and returning back through the border on other seasons.

What event occurred between 1951 and 2024 that could made Dhulbahante significantly smaller than it used to be?

The British rarely went into the interior, and the majority of the clans were hostile to them.

The British would obtain figures from clan elders who told them the number of men in their clan paying diyya, then make estimates from these figures. It's not very reliable, but it is the only thing we got.

 

[Garaad Awal]

HA votes and HJ votes are comparable with a slight advantage to HA (163k vs 127k), and HJ has the largest landmass in Somaliland allowing for votes to come in from East Berbera, Togdheer, Sool and Sanaag vs HA votes concentrated in the small corridor between Berbera and Togwajaale. Since HA is competing for presidency you need the HJ vote to win its simple arithmetic, unless you are stupid enough to imagine GX will vote for Biixi lol

Absolutely delusional. HJ isn’t even larger than Hussein Abokor. Next you will tell me Caynabo is a booming metropolis

 

[Garaad Awal]

Do HY/GX care less about independence and recognition than HA? Not very familiar with Somaliland’s internal politics.

HY hate SL because Ina Cigaal (aka HA) forced it upon them. At one point they called the SL shilling the HA currency.

CG are far more patriotic to the idea of SL as a whole although Wadani/HY are using Garxajisnimo & anti-Zubeyri propaganda to create a toxic tribal climate. This toxic tribal climate will not be in their favour if the weak Buddha’s win as HA who are the majority of the economic heartland of SL will refuse to cooperate, the army is also majority HA-led.

 

[Yazi]

That's 50k going for Waddani on November. Maxamed Abokor and their 60k vote are still on the fence. Xersi is not popular enough and that asasaq Ina Kahin is still shelling for Kulmiye.

 

[Burqad]

HY hate SL because Ina Cigaal (aka HA) forced it upon them. At one point they called the SL shilling the HA currency.

CG are far more patriotic to the idea of SL as a whole although Wadani/HY are using Garxajisnimo & anti-Zubeyri propaganda to create a toxic tribal climate. This toxic tribal climate will not be in their favour if the weak Buddha’s win as HA who are the majority of the economic heartland of SL will refuse to cooperate, the army is also majority HA-led.

Would that mean another habar war?