Kaah-Wadani alliance officially announced

[Awdalite]

That's 50k going for Waddani on November. Maxamed Abokor and their 60k vote are still on the fence. Xersi is not popular enough and that asasaq Ina Kahin is still shelling for Kulmiye.

I don't see why HJ should vote for Kulmiye. I think a coalition with Waddani makes much more sense. Biixi will lose the next election which is why he will do everything to make sure it doesn't happen. Even the Sacad Muuse are split after Cirro made them promises. Kulmiye seems like a losing ticket if the elections ever do happen.

 

[Rabiic]

I brought up 1951 because it is the only explicitly clan focused census we have. Provincial population censuses are not reliable because provinces are mixed, so you never know the exact proportion that each clan has. Another issue is that these censuses focus on urban populations and neglect rural ones. Most of Sool's population is rural. Additionally, reer miyi move around alot, so you would have a lot of them moving south to Ethiopia during some seasons and returning back through the border on other seasons.

What event occurred between 1951 and 2024 that could made Dhulbahante significantly smaller than it used to be?


The British would obtain figures from clan elders who told them the number of men in their clan paying diyya, then make estimates from these figures. It's not very reliable, but it is the only thing we got.

100% wrong. The 2014 UNFPA shows both urban and rural populations, see below:

Nomadic and rural populations are shown above, and Sool is still the smallest region in Somaliland in terms of population. This is also the same in 1975. You cant hide behind figures from the 1940s and 50s when we have a proper census made by the Somali government in 60s and 70s as well as estimates done just 10 years ago.

Dhulbahante is a loud minority within Somaliland, just look at the figures above.

 

[Rabiic]

Absolutely delusional. HJ isn’t even larger than Hussein Abokor. Next you will tell me Caynabo is a booming metropolis

We have the numbers and Xuseen Abokor votes were actually quite disappointing:

Xuseen Abokor: 33,018
Jibriil Abokor: 46,989

Just Biciide subclan of HJ had 26,484 votes almost the same as all of Xuseen Abokor.

The days of fake faan are over, you cant win an election alone, edeb yeelo and beg other clans for votes or your candidate will lose

 

[Awdalite]

What is this cap

The British already did a clan census in their colony and these are the results:

View attachment 334313

It wasn't a census. It was a population estimate based on dia paying groups. The methodology was to estimate each dia paying group and then further extrapolate a population estimate.
No actual census ever occurred of Somali clans. It doesn't exist. This same report was then used as a blueprint for all colonial reports for policy regulations and not because accuracy was important, but because British Somaliland wasn't really very important for the British government. The closest way to determine population sizes today is using regional populations where clans inhabit and use that as a blueprint until an actual clan census is done which is almost impossible.

Even the architect John Hunt himself mentioned the limitations and the estimates are not anywhere being correct

Also, the primary method of this population estimate was nomadic stock herder. Non nomadic Western Somali clans that live off the land and have less need for livestock were at a disadvantage:

TLDR:
A clan census has never been done. Population estimates based on livestock and dia paying groups is a very weak way of sourcing information per the researcher himself.

 

[Haragwaafi]

HY hate SL because Ina Cigaal (aka HA) forced it upon them. At one point they called the SL shilling the HA currency.

CG are far more patriotic to the idea of SL as a whole although Wadani/HY are using Garxajisnimo & anti-Zubeyri propaganda to create a toxic tribal climate. This toxic tribal climate will not be in their favour if the weak Buddha’s win as HA who are the majority of the economic heartland of SL will refuse to cooperate, the army is also majority HA-led.

No one forced SL on us and the war wasn't about that as when Cigaal heeded to some of our main demands like increase of our seat share in both Houses of the parliament during Hargeisa grand conference in 1996 where Cigaal got our vote for his 2nd term in office and that was the end of the civil war.

 

[Yazi]

I don't see why HJ should vote for Kulmiye. I think a coalition with Waddani makes much more sense. Biixi will lose the next election which is why he will do everything to make sure it doesn't happen. Even the Sacad Muuse are split after Cirro made them promises. Kulmiye seems like a losing ticket if the elections ever do happen.

Kulmiye is a sinking ship. Even recognition won't save Bixii he's kicking the bucket soon. Hope Waddani becomes the next Jeegaan.

 

[attash]

100% wrong. The 2014 UNFPA shows both urban and rural populations, see below:

View attachment 334357

Nomadic and rural populations are shown above, and Sool is still the smallest region in Somaliland in terms of population. This is also the same in 1975. You cant hide behind figures from the 1940s and 50s when we have a proper census made by the Somali government in 60s and 70s as well as estimates done just 10 years ago.

Dhulbahante is a loud minority within Somaliland, just look at the figures above.

UNFPA does not have the infrastructure necessary to carry out a proper census across the country as they are an NGO. As for the kacaan census, I have already pointed out the difficulty of measuring the rural population in Somalia:

Additionally, reer miyi move around alot, so you would have a lot of them moving south to Ethiopia during some seasons and returning back through the border on other seasons.

Somalia does not have a proper ID system to track its citizens and the governments in the country have a weak hold over the rural regions. Naturally, any population count in Somalia (especially in the rural regions) is just an estimate, not an actual figure.

That being said, it is true that Sool is the most sparsely population region in British Somaliland, and one of the least populated regions in Somalia as a whole. This is because it is one of the most homogenous regions in Somalia with ~80% of the population belonging to a sub sub sub clan of Daarood. Waqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, and Sanaag are all diverse regions, so naturally they will have much higher populations. If a gobol existed where HJ are ~80% of the population, this region would probably have a similar or lower number of inhabitants than Sool.

This is why I said earlier that provincial population estimates are not very useful for comparing the sizes of clans:

I brought up 1951 because it is the only explicitly clan focused census we have. Provincial population censuses are not reliable because provinces are mixed, so you never know the exact proportion that each clan has.

It wasn't a census. It was a population estimate based on dia paying groups. The methodology was to estimate each dia paying group and then further extrapolate a population estimate.
No actual census ever occurred of Somali clans. It doesn't exist. This same report was then used as a blueprint for all colonial reports for policy regulations and not because accuracy was important, but because British Somaliland wasn't really very important for the British government. The closest way to determine population sizes today is using regional populations where clans inhabit and use that as a blueprint until an actual clan census is done which is almost impossible.

Even the architect John Hunt himself mentioned the limitations and the estimates are not anywhere being correct

View attachment 334360

Also, the primary method of this population estimate was nomadic stock herder. Non nomadic Western Somali clans that live off the land and have less need for livestock were at a disadvantage:

View attachment 334361


TLDR:
A clan census has never been done. Population estimates based on livestock and dia paying groups is a very weak way of sourcing information per the researcher himself.

You are correct, and I have already mentioned this earlier:

The British would obtain figures from clan elders who told them the number of men in their clan paying diyya, then make estimates from these figures. It's not very reliable, but it is the only thing we got.

My main concern is that this estimate is focused on clans while the other estimates are focused on provinces.

 

[Rabiic]

UNFPA does not have the infrastructure necessary to carry out a proper census across the country as they are an NGO. As for the kacaan census, I have already pointed out the difficulty of measuring the rural population in Somalia:

The facts are simple, UNFPA study is way more recent and way more accurate than an estimate from near 100 years ago, it is also in line with findings of the only study ever conducted by a central government on Somalis. Its astounding that you are attempting to ignore that the Nugaal region which included all 3 Dhulbahante districts from Sool was the least populated region in the union state.

Every study conducted in the last 80 years prove Dhulbahante territory to be very sparsely populated and Dhulbahante were a small minority in Somali Republic just like they are a minority in Somaliland today.

That being said, it is true that Sool is the most sparsely population region in British Somaliland, and one of the least populated regions in Somalia as a whole. This is because it is one of the most homogenous regions in Somalia with ~80% of the population belonging to a sub sub sub clan of Daarood. Waqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, and Sanaag are all diverse regions, so naturally they will have much higher populations. If a gobol existed where HJ are ~80% of the population, this region would probably have a similar or lower number of inhabitants than Sool.

This is not true. Firstly because Sool is not 80% Dhulbahante as you claim. Outside of Las Anod, Cayabo district is the largest in the region. Additionally, a region with only HJ as inhabitants would most certainly have larger population than Sool. What you dont seem to want to understand is that Dhulbahante territory is more sparsely populated than HJ:

As clearly shown in the map, Dhulbahante territory is much more sparsely populated even than adjacent clans like HJ, GX and WS.

Almost no one lives outside of Las Anod in places like Xudun and Taleex according to the population density map.

 

[Heavy Mountains]

The facts are simple, UNFPA study is way more recent and way more accurate than an estimate from near 100 years ago, it is also in line with findings of the only study ever conducted by a central government on Somalis. Its astounding that you are attempting to ignore that the Nugaal region which included all 3 Dhulbahante districts from Sool was the least populated region in the union state.

Every study conducted in the last 80 years prove Dhulbahante territory to be very sparsely populated and Dhulbahante were a small minority in Somali Republic just like they are a minority in Somaliland today.




This is not true. Firstly because Sool is not 80% Dhulbahante as you claim. Outside of Las Anod, Cayabo district is the largest in the region. Additionally, a region with only HJ as inhabitants would most certainly have larger population than Sool. What you dont seem to want to understand is that Dhulbahante territory is more sparsely populated than HJ:

View attachment 334486

As clearly shown in the map, Dhulbahante territory is much more sparsely populated even than adjacent clans like HJ, GX and WS.

Almost no one lives outside of Las Anod in places like Xudun and Taleex according to the population density map.

@attash is correct that Sool is 80% Dhulbahante.

77% of buildings in Sool are in Dhulbahante section.

 

[attash]

The facts are simple, UNFPA study is way more recent and way more accurate than an estimate from near 100 years ago, it is also in line with findings of the only study ever conducted by a central government on Somalis.

The two stats you keep citing contradict each other. According to the kacaan census, Togdheer has twice the population of Nugaal/Sool, whereas according to UNFPA, the populations of Togdheer vs Nugaal+Sool are roughly equal (~720,000).

Its astounding that you are attempting to ignore that the Nugaal region which included all 3 Dhulbahante districts from Sool was the least populated region in the union state.

I have already said that Sool is one of the least populated regions in Somalia.

Every study conducted in the last 80 years prove Dhulbahante territory to be very sparsely populated and Dhulbahante were a small minority in Somali Republic just like they are a minority in Somaliland today.

This is not true. Firstly because Sool is not 80% Dhulbahante as you claim. Outside of Las Anod, Cayabo district is the largest in the region. Additionally, a region with only HJ as inhabitants would most certainly have larger population than Sool. What you dont seem to want to understand is that Dhulbahante territory is more sparsely populated than HJ:

View attachment 334486

As clearly shown in the map, Dhulbahante territory is much more sparsely populated even than adjacent clans like HJ, GX and WS.

Almost no one lives outside of Las Anod in places like Xudun and Taleex according to the population density map.

Dhulbahante territory is sparsely populated because they are the only ones who live there. There is no major town in Somalia that is exclusively populated by (for example) HJ, every major town they live in is shared. The largest town they have to themselves is Caynaba, a tuulo consisting of a few buildings on the side of a road (I have been there before).

As for population density maps, we can cherry pick statistics all you want. Here is a population density map showing that Caynaba district is the least densely populated district in Sool:

At the end of the day, there are no reliable stats.

Fun fact: your own UNFPA statistic lists Taleex as having a higher population count than Caynaba. According to this stat, Caynaba district is ~22% of the Sool's population, which is in line with the estimate I made earlier.

You can keep cherry picking stats, but they won't change the following facts:

- Sool is one of the most homogenous regions in Somalia, so naturally it is sparsely populated. Comparing Sool's population to other populations in British Somaliland says nothing about the size of Dhulbahante compared to Isaaq subclans since Isaaq subclans live together.

- Most of Dhulbahante population are in miyi, so it is difficult to measure their true size.

 

[NidarNidar]

@attash is correct that Sool is 80% Dhulbahante.

View attachment 334490

77% of buildings in Sool are in Dhulbahante section.

What app is that?

 

[Heavy Mountains]

What app is that?

Google Earth Engine.

Here is a thread from last year with a long discussion

 

[Yami]

Do HY/GX care less about independence and recognition than HA? Not very familiar with Somaliland’s internal politics.

All Isaaq clans been eye to eye on independence since the referendum in 2001. People who could care less on recognition are a minority across the board

 

[Rabiic]

The two stats you keep citing contradict each other. According to the kacaan census, Togdheer has twice the population of Nugaal/Sool, whereas according to UNFPA, the populations of Togdheer vs Nugaal+Sool are roughly equal (~720,000).

The regional boundaries were different. Back in the kacaan days Nugaal encompassed the 3 districts of the Dhulbahante while Caynaba was actually part of Togdheer.

Back then Nugaal was the least populated region in Somali republic, today Sool is the least populated region in Somaliland, the pattern is undeniable.

Dhulbahante territory is sparsely populated because they are the only ones who live there. There is no major town in Somalia that is exclusively populated by (for example) HJ, every major town they live in is shared. The largest town they have to themselves is Caynaba, a tuulo consisting of a few buildings on the side of a road (I have been there before).

As for population density maps, we can cherry pick statistics all you want. Here is a population density map showing that Caynaba district is the least densely populated district in Sool:

This is also not true, they live with Fiqishini in Sool and have shared deegans with Warsangeli in Sanaag.

Dhulbahante territory is very sparsely populated because Dhulbahante as a clan are lacking in numbers. To illustrate this you can compare the size of just the HJ or just the HY of Burco to pretty much every single Dhulbahante town and you would find Dhulbahante towns combined are less than one side of Burco. This should illustrate the true size of Dhulbahante as a clan.

You can keep cherry picking stats, but they won't change the following facts:

- Sool is one of the most homogenous regions in Somalia, so naturally it is sparsely populated. Comparing Sool's population to other populations in British Somaliland says nothing about the size of Dhulbahante compared to Isaaq subclans since Isaaq subclans live together.

- Most of Dhulbahante population are in miyi, so it is difficult to measure their true size.

Sool is not homogenous, regions like Awdal in Somaliland or Bari and Nugaal in Somalia are more homogenous.

And of course you can compare Sool's population to other regions because unlike Dhulbahante who are near 100% concentrated in Sool, other clans live in force across multiple regions. Togdhere is inhabited by subclans of HJ and HY, you make it sound like 100% of HJ and 100% of HY live there and so cant be compared to Sool which is a false premise. Sanaag and sool are also inhabited by different subclans within HY and HJ. The HJ who live in Togdheer probably number as many as all Dhulbahante.

You really cant use the fact that Dhulbahante's only region being so sparsely populated being indicative of anything other than Dhulbahante being a small clan

 

[Hassan Garguute Buldanana]

The facts are simple, UNFPA study is way more recent and way more accurate than an estimate from near 100 years ago, it is also in line with findings of the only study ever conducted by a central government on Somalis. Its astounding that you are attempting to ignore that the Nugaal region which included all 3 Dhulbahante districts from Sool was the least populated region in the union state.

Every study conducted in the last 80 years prove Dhulbahante territory to be very sparsely populated and Dhulbahante were a small minority in Somali Republic just like they are a minority in Somaliland today.




This is not true. Firstly because Sool is not 80% Dhulbahante as you claim. Outside of Las Anod, Cayabo district is the largest in the region. Additionally, a region with only HJ as inhabitants would most certainly have larger population than Sool. What you dont seem to want to understand is that Dhulbahante territory is more sparsely populated than HJ:

View attachment 334486

As clearly shown in the map, Dhulbahante territory is much more sparsely populated even than adjacent clans like HJ, GX and WS.

Almost no one lives outside of Las Anod in places like Xudun and Taleex according to the population density map.

Not going to get into population, but why do keep mentioning Dhulbahante being part of SL?

 

[AP123]

I think the population in SL is hj,hy,sm,cm,cidagalle,and the rest. Hj sit on the most land in SL.

 

[Garaad Awal]

I think the population in SL is hj,hy,sm,cm,cidagalle,and the rest. Hj sit on the most land in SL.

HJ land is empty & devoid of humans & has no strategic importance. As for population, HJ are a minority group in Sool, minority in the tiny village of Ceerigaabo & live in 1/3rd of Burco, this idea that HJ is a populous clan only exists with online HJ diaspora folks.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

The regional boundaries were different. Back in the kacaan days Nugaal encompassed the 3 districts of the Dhulbahante while Caynaba was actually part of Togdheer.

Back then Nugaal was the least populated region in Somali republic, today Sool is the least populated region in Somaliland, the pattern is undeniable.


This is also not true, they live with Fiqishini in Sool and have shared deegans with Warsangeli in Sanaag.

Dhulbahante territory is very sparsely populated because Dhulbahante as a clan are lacking in numbers. To illustrate this you can compare the size of just the HJ or just the HY of Burco to pretty much every single Dhulbahante town and you would find Dhulbahante towns combined are less than one side of Burco. This should illustrate the true size of Dhulbahante as a clan.



Sool is not homogenous, regions like Awdal in Somaliland or Bari and Nugaal in Somalia are more homogenous.

And of course you can compare Sool's population to other regions because unlike Dhulbahante who are near 100% concentrated in Sool, other clans live in force across multiple regions. Togdhere is inhabited by subclans of HJ and HY, you make it sound like 100% of HJ and 100% of HY live there and so cant be compared to Sool which is a false premise. Sanaag and sool are also inhabited by different subclans within HY and HJ. The HJ who live in Togdheer probably number as many as all Dhulbahante.

You really cant use the fact that Dhulbahante's only region being so sparsely populated being indicative of anything other than Dhulbahante being a small clan

Dhulbahante & Warsangali are genetically a single clan, with a TMRCA of 900 years. They together occupy 40% of northern Somalia.

 

[Garaad Awal]

Dhulbahante & Warsangali are genetically a single clan, with a TMRCA of 900 years. They together occupy 40% of northern Somalia.

View attachment 334530

View attachment 334531

Empty Land, that’s like someone from Utah flexing on Bangladesh

 

[Yazi]

Dhulbahante & Warsangali are genetically a single clan, with a TMRCA of 900 years. They together occupy 40% of northern Somalia.

View attachment 334530

View attachment 334531

Man is so insecure about their population he had to include HA districts of Gabiely, Berbera and Shiekh when he had Burco right there.

Burco district alone is 480k majority HJ & HY. If you were sincere you would include Burco since you already included HY & HJ districts. If you really want to compare Dhulbahante & Warsangali vs HY & HJ in the said regions


HY & HJ in Sool, Sanaag & Togdheer = 59k + 99k + 580k = 740k
Dhulbahante & Warsangali in Sool, Sanaag and Togdheer = 590k

740k > 590k
Isaaq are the majority in Sool, Sanaag & Togdheer going by 2014 estimates by UN.

No need to include the far fetched districts of Habar Awal, not even Shiekh district of Togdheer you're still a minority against Hy & HJ sub clans.