London Predatory Carnival On Somalia - Great Article on the new British model for Somalia

[Gambar]

Kulahaa "Let's ignore these derailing folks from Puntland, How dare they respond to my INSULTS?".
"We can't have a discussion".

He's a grade A loser. When even @waraabe says you're a qabiilist finish ba tahay.

 

[TekNiKo]

This is how the British operate it's classic colonial tactics, they are using the Arms embargo being lifted as their 'carrot' stick in this negotiation, if they sign on to their plans they will simply lift it.

This is a very difficult position to be in and the governments argument is that they have no other alternatives and if they don't accept they will be at the mercy of Amisom/Ethiopia for the foreseeable future for security.

The choice here is simple which is the card the British are playing, either we keep Amisom/Ethiopia in your country or you accept stripping your central government authority by empowering federal states (so they can directly deal with them like the Kurdish model in Iraq, easier to control/divide with limited numbers)

This sounds like the lesser of the evils but the British will further milk this by getting you to renege on the new deal for development as a condition of this, currently Farmaajo government is refusing this and this is the sticking point at the moment, he needs to hold his nerve here.

The British are bluffing on this because they deep down rather deal with clan fiefdoms then Ethiopia/Kenya/Amisom which complicates the relationship because of these parties separate interests that don't sit well with their interests in Somalia, Farmaajo government should understand this and call out their bluff as a result by keeping the new deal in tact but accept their plan to have 18.000 troops that at least Amisom/Ethiopia could be sidelined which is the bigger evil, we will see what happens.

Seems like a very difficult choice for this administration. But shouldnt Farmaajo just ignore the whole conference and tell the British to buzz off? They are not part if EU bloc anymore and no longer dictate AMISOM salary and or mission, only Brussels can make that decision.

You forget the elephant in the room, SOMA oil which has ties with UK elite and Kheyre's past links
Should we be worried about it? Or will the Conoco American Oil company defend their kacaan era contract?

 

[Inquisitive_]

I see where it can get tricky with the returning of properties to their owners, and prosecuting the looters. But let's at least have reconciliation movement that tries to recognise the wrong-doings and move on from it - there doesn't have to be any repatriation.

The hanging of warlords can be done tomorrow.

Waa fahansanahay that reconciliation talks can be used as an excuse to halter our nation building e.g. Israel - PLO negotiations. But it's still an important item that sits on our collective consciousness. There is no such thing as Business as Usual after a Civil War - the odhayaal must congregate and hash it out.

Either we behave civilised and reconcile, or Allah will punish/reward us with perpetual chaos, or reward/punish us with a Farax Khan who will commit genocides to bind us all together with fear.

I say everyone develop their region in isolation, and pray for a Farax Khan.

Bro I understand your sentiments but 70% of the population never got involved in this and were born after the conflict neither did 100% of the diaspora Somali's growing up, reconciliation assumes warring fractions that directly affected each other which is not the case.

We both lost people but none of this affects us at a personal level nor do we hate/dislike those that did this, many of us are lucky to even know who/what/why they were killed.

You open up a massive pandora box and the worst thing you can ever do is open up old wounds or make new ones that never existed, in the end it's qadr of Allah and ultimate judgement that's far better will come, those killed unjustly as long they had iman will offload all their sins on the perpetuaters, they are truly the lucky ones here.

Think of it as reconciling with a wife you have cheated on (god forbid) which will effectively remind her of what she is actively trying to forget or has move on from, it's a terrible thing to do.

 

[Inquisitive_]

Seems like a very difficult choice for this administration. But shouldnt Farmaajo just ignore the whole conference and tell the British to buzz off? They are not part if EU bloc anymore and no longer dictate AMISOM salary and or mission, only Brussels can make that decision.

You forget the elephant in the room, SOMA oil which has ties with UK elite and Kheyre's past links
Should we be worried about it? Or will the Conoco American Oil company defend their kacaan era contract?

The UK is on the UN security council permanent member list (only 5 countries) and has assumed the role of 'Somalia' as a result of this, this is bigger then the EU and the fact Brexit happened is good for us because now they will compete with each other rather then work together which is worse. (this is already happened as the Scandinavian countries prefer the investment trade route to the security centric British model)

Ignoring the whole conference will defeacto place you firmly in Ethiopia's satellite orbit we had been in for decades and that's the best case scenario, worse case scenario the entire government will be overthrown with a possible civil war scenario started with all funding's cut, or they will move everything to an obedient federal state, there is 6 ways to Sunday they can screw us here, hence not going is a terrible idea.

SOMA oil or Exxon mobile one of them will happen we simply don't have a choice here, in fact this is a blessing in disguise despite the terrible one-sided deals (they did the same to Saudi, Nigeria and many more powerful countries) this will remove Ethiopia/Kenya from the equation whom want to annex us and if that's not possible wipe us out slowly. (The Somali diaspora's kept the people back home alive with remittance)

Just take a look at the 19% Ethiopia takes from the Berbera deal and a similar percentage if not more from Bosaaso (not disclosed yet) in fact both are lucky it's not 80% because of the UAE, before the UAE both were at the mercy of Ethiopia, this is the effect external parties have, it keeps the real dangerous elephant in the room at bay.

Beggars can't be choosers sxb, the only card Farmaajo government has to be play is to call this British bluff regarding reneging the new deal but accept their 18.000 internal security force which we know is to weaken the central government, it's a price worth paying just to remove a far greater existential threat which is Ethiopia/Amisom whom currently handle the security and fund/arm al-shabab.

This is were the Farmaajo and British interest converge as the British rather deal with clan fiefdoms then Amisom, but the British are not content with giving you a slice but have no other choice hence their bluff (Brexit, Soma Oil, Conoco oil competition)

I have been told Farmaajo government will reject this at the conference, there is also side deals being discussed with America/Turkey on the sidelines here, the Turks are conning foxes and have told the British they will train them under the auspice of "NATO" but the UAE is challenging this

The Turks said if they refuse they will train their own in that base and they are using the NATO card here, there is so many Machiavellian things going on sxb it will boggle your mind.

 

[Ridig Rabah]

Truly i believe in the way of Balkinization if Somalia is to be toyed around like a dead carcass by the filthy Xabashish and Bantus by the help of their master U.K.

Funny all those who are against Inquiste_ patriotic call of unity are facing an imminent resurgent administrative HG that know the concept of lebensraum that expansion and development go hand in hand,capturing mudug and then beyond it is a reach that depends on our survivalism.

I basically see two different alternatives for those who against nationalism and patriotism, either 1 Centralist Somalia that is under Islam, or each Qabiil for its-self that way some which are cancer will be eliminated through systematic warfare !

A victor is needed, not fancy talk, war is the ultimatum!

 

[TekNiKo]

The UK is on the UN security council permanent member list (only 5 countries) and has assumed the role of 'Somalia' as a result of this, this is bigger then the EU and the fact Brexit happened is good for us because now they will compete with each other rather then work together which is worse. (this is already happened as the Scandinavian countries prefer the investment trade route to the security centric British model)

Ignoring the whole conference will defeacto place you firmly in Ethiopia's satellite orbit we had been in for decades and that's the best case scenario, worse case scenario the entire government will be overthrown with a possible civil war scenario started with all funding's cut, or they will move everything to an obedient federal state, there is 6 ways to Sunday they can screw us here, hence not going is a terrible idea.

SOMA oil or Exxon mobile one of them will happen we simply don't have a choice here, in fact this is a blessing in disguise despite the terrible one-sided deals (they did the same to Saudi, Nigeria and many more powerful countries) this will remove Ethiopia/Kenya from the equation whom want to annex us and if that's not possible wipe us out slowly. (The Somali diaspora's kept the people back home alive with remittance)

Just take a look at the 19% Ethiopia takes from the Berbera deal and a similar percentage if not more from Bosaaso (not disclosed yet) in fact both are lucky it's not 80% because of the UAE, before the UAE both were at the mercy of Ethiopia, this is the effect external parties have, it keeps the real dangerous elephant in the room at bay.

Beggars can't be choosers sxb, the only card Farmaajo government has to be play is to call this British bluff regarding reneging the new deal but accept their 18.000 internal security force which we know is to weaken the central government, it's a price worth paying just to remove a far greater existential threat which is Ethiopia/Amisom whom currently handle the security and fund/arm al-shabab.

This is were the Farmaajo and British interest converge as the British rather deal with clan fiefdoms then Amisom, but the British are not content with giving you a slice but have no other choice hence their bluff (Brexit, Soma Oil, Conoco oil competition)

I have been told Farmaajo government will reject this at the conference, there is also side deals being discussed with America/Turkey on the sidelines here, the Turks are conning foxes and have told the British they will train them under the auspice of "NATO", there is so many Machiavellian things going on sxb it will boggle your mind.

If we accept the clan fiefdom model and divide the army among essentially tribal banana states, wouldnt that benefit Ethiopia/Kenya in the long term? All if these states will gravitate to their original founders [Koonfur Galbeed, Ethiopia] Kismaayo (Kenya) etc. This sacrifice may allow the restructuring of the military in the short term but in the long term these independent states may continue to undermine the central govere especially if they have been given legal mandate, remember the gun rules all.

This can spell disaster for any sort of kala dambayn and may result in an abrupt eruption of civil war. For example HiirShabelle and Mogadishu have already had their quarrels regarding ports and airport landing disputes (Recent Jowhar fiasco) etc

Don't underestimate Somali politicians manipulation of these deals to further increase their overreach in regards to the security situation

 

[Ras]

currently Farmaajo government is refusing this and this is the sticking point at the moment, he needs to hold his nerve here.

He probably knows this but he's constrained by time; unlike the British.

If he doesn't provide results within 2 years then the next election machinations will start and we'll see a repeat of past elections (a new faction bribes their way into power and the British try it again).

Unless he finds a way around the British tight lock on the country he'll either has to take up their deal or run around in circles achieving nothing.

Only solution is to find a set of backers more powerful than the group of mandarins that are eyeing Somalia and build an intelligence dept that'll clean up Somalia.

 

[Inquisitive_]

If we accept the clan fiefdom model and divide the army among essentially tribal banana states, wouldnt that benefit Ethiopia/Kenya in the long term? All if these states will gravitate to their original founders [Koonfur Galbeed, Ethiopia] Kismaayo (Kenya) etc. This sacrifice may allow the restructuring of the military in the short term but in the long term these independent states may continue to undermine the central govere especially if they have been given legal mandate, remember the gun rules all.

This can spell disaster for any sort of kala dambayn and may result in an abrupt eruption of civil war. For example HiirShabelle and Mogadishu have already had their quarrels regarding ports and airport landing disputes (Recent Jowhar fiasco) etc

Don't underestimate Somali politicians manipulation of these deals to further increase their overreach in regards to the security situation

You are right that's the risk but beggars can't be choosers, you either accept the status quo of Amisom/Ethiopian/Kenyan troops as security in your country or the British model of having them removed so you have your own (with a weak central government and exploitation in return)

The British are not doing this out of piety for you but because of Soma Oil, under the current status quo framework it's too difficult because she has to deal with local SNA, Uganda, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somali government etc. that's too many players, too chaotic, too many conflicting interests.

Hence the old British colonial model of clan fiefdom is easier to manage and exploit without being strong enough to challenge, Ethiopia/Kenya/Amisom will be removed and relegated to just petty outside interference which through the security council and other ways can be quashed with sanctions, the American's already removed much of the aid from them, they are toothless without aid and will have their own internal revolts.

Those are the two choices here unfortunately because of what we have done to ourselves and the short-sighted imperialistic vision of our neighbours to annex us, containment is all we can do to limit the damage and call out the British bluff on the new deal, avoid UAE training the troops, let NATO Turkey do it and find ways to get a nationalistic spirits in those federal troops (mingle with the people)

Other opportunities will come up in that paradigm but this current model of complete Amisom occupation is the worst thing to have and luckily the British/Turks/American's have come around to the same view but differ on implementation.

 

[Gilgamesh]

I love the spins.

 

[Hassan Garguute Buldanana]

Any SNA that is created must be representative of the entire country, it is laughable to say that federal states should have no seat at the table when discussing national defense.



Parliament is composed along clan lines, it is hard to see such a body creating a clanism free SNA. What is even more risky is the creation of an SNA with direct legal access to international weapons markets that is representative of a single clan. Any disruption in the balance of power that currently prevails among clans will lead to civil war again. I doubt that an SNA run from Mogadishu will ever willingly establish arms depots in Bari or Nugaal. If an SNA is going to be created, everything must be shared equally among all federal states from command to weaponry, recruitment, bases etc...
Parliament is asking the SNA to become something that it is not which is ridiculous.

You are talking to deluded people who keep ignoring reality. They dont believe in federalism to begin with and blame everything to outside powers. Their only solution is trust us, everything will be ruled from xamar and this time its going to be wonderful.

 

[Inquisitive_]

He probably knows this but he's constrained by time; unlike the British.

If he doesn't provide results within 2 years then the next election machinations will start and we'll see a repeat of past elections (a new faction bribes their way into power and the British try it again).

Unless he finds a way around the British tight lock on the country he'll either has to take up their deal or run around in circles achieving nothing.

Only solution is to find a set of backers more powerful than the group of mandarins that are eyeing Somalia and build an intelligence dept that'll clean up Somalia.

Both HSM and Farmaajo were brought to power by the same fraction whom suffer from a lack of vision and too much infighting over meaningless purposeless things.

The Somali can't think beyond next month never mind 5/10 years, soliciting another power like China won't work as they are with Ethiopia, the Russian's are not interested and the rest are not powerful enough to change the course.

The good thing is that the government is going to call the British bluff in regards to the new deal, I heard this from several different people that actively worked on the new deal.

 

[TekNiKo]

Great, we have to go with the lesser evil. SL states they will not be attending so I hope the people of Buhoodle and other Pro Farmaajo regions get their fair share of the pie!

I really hope we succeed with tangible cold hard cash as sixir bararka has caused basic commodities to go through the roof.

@Inquisitive_ will there be any new monetary policies to ban the foreign dollar?

 

[random12345]

As far as I've heard all the oil and natural resources are in somaliland. So how can Somalia sign away our rights to our land?

They're in Puntland actually

 

[Ras]

Both HSM and Farmaajo were brought to power by the same fraction whom suffer from a lack of vision and too much infighting over meaningless purposeless things.

The Somali can't think beyond next month never mind 5/10 years, soliciting another power like China won't work as they are with Ethiopia, the Russian's are not interested and the rest are not powerful enough to change the course.

The good thing is that the government is going to call the British bluff in regards to the new deal, I heard this from several different people that actively worked on the new deal.

States aren't the only powers in today's world. There are plenty of organisations and families with the power to remove most elected leaders. Farmaajo just needs to get with the times and find some leverage he could use to attract enough of them.

No need to find a single huge power that can devour Somalia as that wouldn't be any different than the Brits.

Instead attract a dozen of smaller ones that you could play off against each other and hedge against one or two of them abandoning you.

 

[Ras]

They're in Puntland actually

The average civilian won't see a cent of it nor would it benefit the economy. 70%+ goes to the foreign oil company and middle men in Somalia. The rest goes into fraudulent projects and raw meat (19% )

That's if the oil price doesn't drop to the floor once batteries for electric cars get cheap enough which will probably happen within 5 years. Tesla is already nearing $150 per KW and electric cars are a lot easier to manufacture and maintain.

 

[XamarCade]

They're in Puntland actually

They estimated 10billion in Puntland region, but the majority is in offshore, the nice thing about Puntland is because it's in onshore and it's easier to retrieve it, where as offshore is difficult but there's tons of oil in it

 

[Mudug-Madman]

Truly i believe in the way of Balkinization if Somalia is to be toyed around like a dead carcass by the filthy Xabashish and Bantus by the help of their master U.K.

Funny all those who are against Inquiste_ patriotic call of unity are facing an imminent resurgent administrative HG that know the concept of lebensraum that expansion and development go hand in hand,capturing mudug and then beyond it is a reach that depends on our survivalism.

I basically see two different alternatives for those who against nationalism and patriotism, either 1 Centralist Somalia that is under Islam, or each Qabiil for its-self that way some which are cancer will be eliminated through systematic warfare !

A victor is needed, not fancy talk, war is the ultimatum!

Talks unity, patriotism and Islam out of one side of his mouth, and talks qabil war out the other side. The nerve of these .

 

[Inquisitive_]

@TekNiKo

Banning the dollar ? that's way too premature and futuristic in the current Somali state, Zambia did this and I heard Rwanda followed suit, it needs strong government to ban all the traders, I don't see this happening even tough the current implosion that's happening due to it's volatility on the Somali markets

@RasCanjero

That's already happening, dozen countries, dozen interest groups and NGO's, this kind of stuff needs smart leaders with vision to play them off against each other skillfully.

The plan needs to be long-term one that goes beyond fixed term presidencies, this group already exists and they got HSM/Farmaajo to power but lack any real long term plan, were are cursed with the politics of belly and looking at short-term goals.

 

[𐒁𐒚𐒒𐒂𐒘𐒂𐒗 𐒎𐒚𐒗𐒗𐒒]

Talks unity, patriotism and Islam out of one side of his mouth, and talks qabil war out the other side. The nerve of these .

Hypocrits aka Munaafaqs.

They want to steal our land, force centralism upon us (a system that has been replaced), insult us and then claim they are patriots.
It's revolting and cowardly.

They think that the only way they can regain clan power is by forcing everyone to gravitate towards Mogadishu, a city they have ethnically cleansed everyone else from.

 

[Prince of Lasanod]

Both HSM and Farmaajo were brought to power by the same fraction whom suffer from a lack of vision and too much infighting over meaningless purposeless things.

The Somali can't think beyond next month never mind 5/10 years, soliciting another power like China won't work as they are with Ethiopia, the Russian's are not interested and the rest are not powerful enough to change the course.

The good thing is that the government is going to call the British bluff in regards to the new deal, I heard this from several different people that actively worked on the new deal.

The United States is also in the security council, and they cut aid from Ethiopia/AMISOM whilst increasing it to the Somali government. They wanted to establish an independent military similar to Egypt since there has been no progress with the government. In the end of the day, the whole of Europe are enslaved to America so how can Britain have opposing interests to them?