Looks like borama might be next
- Thread starter killerxsmoke
- Start date
Never going to happen and for many reasons. Take it from me as I'm from there. Reer Awdal have too much at stake and have invested much more into SL than our Dhulbahante brothers. Our circumstances are very different for obvious reasons. We're not a Darood subclan who, along with the Hawiye, are the primary beneficiaries of Somalia so it doesn't make sense for us to be a backwater region of a failed state when we get everything we want in the current setup where we sit on the decision making table. We're not very fanatical about SL but we are content because we get everything we want and largely control our own region through a system of political/clan dynamics. Hypothetically speaking, even if SL stops functioning tomorrow, it would be more likely us being integrated into Djibouti or even Ethiopia. In other words, it's pure fantasy what some people are spreading online. Consider everything west of Sool and Sanaag as never being part of Somalia again in my honest opinion.
I could see Awdal being a federal state. Might not happen tomorrow but it’s possible. But of course I don’t agree with ppl pushing reer Awdal to make problems they don’t need at the present moment.
Awdal, Maroodi Jeex, Saaxil, most of Togdheer and parts of Sanaag are gone forever in my view. Over 30 years have passed and most of the older generations who remember anything positive about Somalia are dead and buried. Most of the people alive today have only ever known Somaliland and most of them do not see any benefits in returning to Somalia especially in the condition that it's in now. Dhulbahante are in a very different. Somaliland has sadly completely failed them. Plus as a Darood subclan, they'll always have a vested and long term interest with aligning with Puntland and Somalia. We are not in the same position and we have no such relations. There is no interest in us being part of Somalia. It just doesn't make any sense. During the Somalia golden years, between 1960 to 1990 not one road was built in all of Awdal and not one project was initiated. Imagine that. Currently it's one of the best regions in all of the Somali speaking world.
GaradShabeel
VIP
I've kind of heard the same sentiments from when I was there. My relatives lives in DDS (Fafan region) not far from the SL border and I even got extended family there. From what I've gathered, most Somalis from Awdal are neutral on the SL-Somalia debacle, and while the majority still believe in the "Somali nation". The reality on the ground is that, (and the path of secessionism as chosen by the beesha dhexe), is not really disadvantageous, given the position/power they have in today, as their voice plays an important role in SL politics. The one thing that would satisfy them even more, is Awdal with more "autonomous power" (not necessary a federalism model) within SL . But SL as we know today, unfortunately is more beneficiary to them, than that of Somalia. As much as I personally would want them back in Somalia, the only realistic scenario would be if SL gives up on their secessionist aspirations, which looks bleaks and unlikely in the near future. Unless something drastic happens.
Prince of HS
VIP
I agree Reer Awdal actually benefit from Somaliland. Daroods in SL land unfortunately do not from what I’m seeing. It’s best for them to just join Puntland. Reer sanaag benefit from Puntland projects so I don’t see the reason for them to make another state
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I've kind of heard the same sentiments from when I was there. My relatives lives in DDS (Fafan region) not far from the SL border and I even got extended family there. From what I've gathered, most Somalis from Awdal are neutral on the SL-Somalia debacle, and while the majority still believe in the "Somali nation". The reality on the ground is that, (and the path of secessionism as chosen by the beesha dhexe), is not really disadvantageous, given the position/power they have in today, as their voice plays an important role in SL politics. The one thing that would satisfy them even more, is Awdal with more "autonomous power" (not necessary a federalism model). But SL today, unfortunately is more beneficiary to them, than that of Somalia. As much as I personally would want them back in Somalia, the only realistic scenario would be if SL gives up on their secessionist aspirations, which looks bleaks and unlikely in the near future. Unless something drastic happens.
Absolutely spot on
, we live in a world where geopolitics and identity is the master of everyone. In both scenarios, it doesn't favour us in anyway to be part of Somalia. Geographically we are impacted more by a decision made in Addis Ababa than in Mogadishu. We use Ethiopian Birr in Borama and are linked with Djibouti through clan affiliation. Hargeisa is right near us. Plus we are a Dir subclan and our fellow Dir in the south have been killed and displaced by clan actors from Central Somalia all the way to Jubbaland. Somalia is pretty much a Darood and Hawiye enterprise where they swap Presidents every few years and nobody else is in the club or are welcome. Reer Awdal are the decision makers in SL and we are the 2nd in command of all SL forces, we made the flag, the anthem and the SL idea was born in Awdal. There is no way it will be part of Somalia in my honest opinion. The only difference is that we love all Somalis and even Somalia and consider ourselves patriotic Somalis whilst most Isaaq because of the civil war despise Somalia.
The Midlands
VIP
Isaaq are playing now the Dir card even the Irir card and Djibouti will not allow SL disintegration as predominantly "Dir region"
bidenkulaha
GalYare
Interesting. If SL allow SSC to leave then FGS acknowledge’s SSC then we can defo end up seeing Awdal tensions as SL legitimacy crumbles. But not anytime soon, they’ll stick with them as long as SL doesn’t genocide them again
what qabil are Awdal? are they dir?
GaradShabeel
VIP
Absolutely spot on
I agree with you. Even though is hurts that the concept of Somali nation is shattered, everyone now has to do what's best for their people. As you pointed out, as much denial as we are of SL/Somalia, we have to condemn where we see wrongdoings AND commend and recognize when we see our fellow people doing well for themselves. And the existence of SL is the results of the consequences of how our previous leaders failed you/us and forced you into the decision of partaking in the SL process, for the better of your people. (Even though I tend to joke here a lot about SL existence....
)Also you are very right about in how you view us other Somalis, that you don't have/hold "hostile" views towards other Somalis - not just those from south. Which unfortunately is the case for some SL. As horrible it is what they went through, I just don't think it's justifiable. But then again, we Somalis hate each other on clan basis anyways, so it's partly hypocritical to call them out alone...
GaradShabeel
VIP
Majority Samaroon, with a small Issa community close to Djibouti border, if I recall correctly.
I agree with you. Even though is hurts that the concept of Somali nation is shattered, everyone now has to do what's best for their people. As you pointed out, as much denial as we are of SL/Somalia, we have to condemn where we see wrongdoings AND commend and recognize when we see our fellow people doing well for themselves. And the existence of SL is the results of the consequences of how our previous leaders failed you/us and forced you into the decision of partaking in the SL process, for the better of your people. (Even though I tend to joke here a lot about SL existence....
Also you are very right about in how you view us other Somalis, that you don't have/hold "hostile" views towards other Somalis - not just those from south. Which unfortunately is the case for some SL. As horrible it is what they went through, I just don't think it's justifiable. But then again, we Somalis hate each other on clan basis anyways, so it's partly hypocritical to call them out alone...
All you have to do is go to Borama yourself to see how every Somali of every clan from every region live there and not once are they asked what clan they are, its unheard of and never happens. In Hargeisa the people are more xenophobic and for 30 years they've been taught to hate Somalia and everything it stands for so the experience is different.
I'm convinced OP is somewhere on the spectrum to actually believe the source of his tweet 
Nigga i said "might"I'm convinced OP is somewhere on the spectrum to actually believe the source of his tweet
Samaroon a dir sub group and ciise to if i'm not misstaken
GaradShabeel
VIP
At this point, I don't think SL can do much to hold SSC back, unless they are prepared for a military solution/intervention in short term. And military occupation in the long term. Dhulbahante were long divided, but right now they are more united than ever. So what decisions Hargeisa makes, will have huge impact for the region.
The only viable option (not really, at the same time) of SL recognizing the departure of SSC from SL, is if Somalia offers formal negotiation of SL separation, in return. Until then they will claim the british made borders, in its entirely. Unless, they get to their senses and make strategic decisions. Also the sooner, the better for SSC and the rest of SL. It's also going to be hard to appeal to the international community to recognize them, when they don't control all of their supposed land too.
The tension, it may create at best, is that it will make SL realize the need to restructure its governance, to make sure that it doesn't collapse. But highly unlikely, it will get there. There are also voices from the background (the establishment) right now, to make those same deals with SSC and satisfy them (negotiation of more autonomy within SL), all just not to loose further territory.
I guess, desperate times calls for desperate measures, so we will see.
You're right
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