PL to begin population census

[3LetterzMM]

Your first mistake is assuming that I’m thinking about it from some stupid cavemen fighting perspective. States have an incentive to inflate their numbers in order to increase their governmental representation as well as aid money. If Somalia moves to 1M1V in ten years you think PL won’t demand that their allotment of seats for the lower house reflect their own internal census? Doesn’t matter how legitimate that census is or isn’t. People is power in politics.

Fair point but we all know southerners won’t go for 1m1v anytime soon large parts of their land is under al shabaab that takes a lot of votes away from them. Plus the south is too diverse a lot of regions would be divided and split between two or three candidates vs puntland ssc and possibly jubbaland unanimously backing one party all across the board.

1m1v is a bigger political suicide for Hawiye than us regardless of how big our population is. End of the day we have our state to go to even if we miserably lose an election hawiye on the other hand can’t afford to lose presidency.

 

[TheLand]

Not even allowed to make innocuous jokes anymore huh this isn’t even FKD it’s just the truth. If Galmudug attempted to run a census they’d try to convince us they have 3+ million people as well. No state has an incentive to be realistic about their population count.

Can you even do a census down south sxb? I doubt you could even count the number of jingads in kaaraan. Leave the census talks to serious people.

 

[AlteKartel]

Fair point but we all know southerners won’t go for 1m1v anytime soon large parts of their land is under al shabaab that takes a lot of votes away from them. Plus the south is too diverse a lot of regions would be divided and split between two or three candidates vs puntland ssc and possibly jubbaland unanimously backing one party all across the board.

1m1v is a bigger political suicide for Hawiye than us regardless of how big our population is. End of the day we have our state to go to even if we miserably lose an election hawiye on the other hand can’t afford to lose presidency.

I agree that 1M1V won’t happen in the south anytime soon. The current leadership is not serious about getting rid of Al-Shabaab. One thing I respect reer PL for is that even though it is intrinsically tied to qabiil, they have a clear North Star which supersedes qabiil and that is their support for federalism. In theory Madoobe has the same incentive for support federalism but until recently he was signing whatever HSM wanted.

Personally I’m against qabiil politics. It stifles progress, allows for the worst to rise to the top (as shown by HSM), and ensures that elections don’t become a battle of ideas but a battle of identities. I nominally care about my own qabiil and I definitely don’t give a crap about Hawiye. However, you raised a good point about losing an election being worse for Hawiye than for Daarood. The same way that Daarood’s non-negotiable is federalism Hawiye’s non-negotiable is the status of Xamar within the federal system.

It doesn’t matter now because of 4.5 but when Somalis eventually transitions to 1M1V they won’t accept the disenfranchisement of ~3 million people (minimum 70% Hawiye). It also poses an issue for Daarood. You guys don’t want Hawiye telling you what to do in Garowe so why would you expect Hawiye to be OK with a Daarood president telling them what to do in Xamar? This stifles the ability of any Daarood president to be effective in Xamar as they’re (sadly) seen as a hostile force, especially as people tire of their rule (as seen with Farmaajo)

Now there’s a very simple solution to this. Once HSM is gone and we have a serious president in power. The constitution can be finalized to the satisfaction of all stakeholders. This means that Banaadir gets some form of federal status and is able to manage its own affairs. This means parliamentary representation in the lower house consistent with its population. If SSC ends up becoming an actual state then there will probably be some negotiations over senators to ensure the balance of power remains. Otherwise you get the federalism you want. This also means that a Daarood president can govern much more effectively since they no longer hold the keys to everything happening in Xamar.

There’s a common sense solution to every problem in Somalia but no one wants to solve the problems they just prefer the status quo.

 

[AlteKartel]

Can you even do a census down south sxb? I doubt you could even count the number of jingads in kaaraan. Leave the census talks to serious people.

Gimme one week and a clipboard I’m coming back with more Jiingads in Kaaraan than people in Garowe.

 

[Hassan Garguute Buldanana]

I agree that 1M1V won’t happen in the south anytime soon. The current leadership is not serious about getting rid of Al-Shabaab. One thing I respect reer PL for is that even though it is intrinsically tied to qabiil, they have a clear North Star which supersedes qabiil and that is their support for federalism. In theory Madoobe has the same incentive for support federalism but until recently he was signing whatever HSM wanted.

Personally I’m against qabiil politics. It stifles progress, allows for the worst to rise to the top (as shown by HSM), and ensures that elections don’t become a battle of ideas but a battle of identities. I nominally care about my own qabiil and I definitely don’t give a crap about Hawiye. However, you raised a good point about losing an election being worse for Hawiye than for Daarood. The same way that Daarood’s non-negotiable is federalism Hawiye’s non-negotiable is the status of Xamar within the federal system.

It doesn’t matter now because of 4.5 but when Somalis eventually transitions to 1M1V they won’t accept the disenfranchisement of ~3 million people (minimum 70% Hawiye). It also poses an issue for Daarood. You guys don’t want Hawiye telling you what to do in Garowe so why would you expect Hawiye to be OK with a Daarood president telling them what to do in Xamar? This stifles the ability of any Daarood president to be effective in Xamar as they’re (sadly) seen as a hostile force, especially as people tire of their rule (as seen with Farmaajo)

Now there’s a very simple solution to this. Once HSM is gone and we have a serious president in power. The constitution can be finalized to the satisfaction of all stakeholders. This means that Banaadir gets some form of federal status and is able to manage its own affairs. This means parliamentary representation in the lower house consistent with its population. If SSC ends up becoming an actual state then there will probably be some negotiations over senators to ensure the balance of power remains. Otherwise you get the federalism you want. This also means that a Daarood president can govern much more effectively since they no longer hold the keys to everything happening in Xamar.

There’s a common sense solution to every problem in Somalia but no one wants to solve the problems they just prefer the status quo.

Why do you guys like to compare Garowe to xamar which is a capital city? The only comparison would be other regional capitals like Jowhar, Dusamareb, Barawe etc. Have you ever seen a Darood mention those places? I get the representation argument but it will be fair for everyone to move the capital. You want to keep the benefits a capital city brings while telling the rest of the nation unukaleh caasimada? C'mon sxb. Move the damn capital and see if any Darood ever mentions it.

 

[AlteKartel]

Why do you guys like to compare Garowe to xamar which is a capital city? The only comparison would be other regional capitals like Jowhar, Dusamareb, Barawe etc. Have you ever seen a Darood mention those places? I get the representation argument but it will be fair for everyone to move the capital. You want to keep the benefits a capital city brings while telling the rest of the nation unukaleh caasimada? C'mon sxb. Move the damn capital and see if any Darood ever mentions it.

The argument about moving the capital makes no sense to me for a couple of reasons:
1. Xamar is the most diverse city in Somalia. You will only see more “Unuka leh” if you move the capital to another city, not less.
2. Moving the capital is a massive waste of resources. I don’t mind devolving aspect of governance to other regional capitals (e.g., Supreme Court), in fact I welcome it. But moving the capital to another city (or even worse, a planned city) is incredibly wasteful for our dirt-poor country.
3. It doesn’t solve the underlying issue it just kicks it down the road. Eventually the new capital will grow and their people will want representation as well, leaving us in the exact same position.
4. Somalis will not be able to agree on where the new capital will be as there are no obvious candidates.
5. Reer PL want to weaken the federal government. What better way to do that than by making Banaadir its own state capable of making its own decisions? This will force the FGS to focus fully on Somali issues exclusively and not just what is happening in Wardhiigley.

 

[Devilsadvocate]

I agree that 1M1V won’t happen in the south anytime soon. The current leadership is not serious about getting rid of Al-Shabaab. One thing I respect reer PL for is that even though it is intrinsically tied to qabiil, they have a clear North Star which supersedes qabiil and that is their support for federalism. In theory Madoobe has the same incentive for support federalism but until recently he was signing whatever HSM wanted.

Personally I’m against qabiil politics. It stifles progress, allows for the worst to rise to the top (as shown by HSM), and ensures that elections don’t become a battle of ideas but a battle of identities. I nominally care about my own qabiil and I definitely don’t give a crap about Hawiye. However, you raised a good point about losing an election being worse for Hawiye than for Daarood. The same way that Daarood’s non-negotiable is federalism Hawiye’s non-negotiable is the status of Xamar within the federal system.

It doesn’t matter now because of 4.5 but when Somalis eventually transitions to 1M1V they won’t accept the disenfranchisement of ~3 million people (minimum 70% Hawiye). It also poses an issue for Daarood. You guys don’t want Hawiye telling you what to do in Garowe so why would you expect Hawiye to be OK with a Daarood president telling them what to do in Xamar? This stifles the ability of any Daarood president to be effective in Xamar as they’re (sadly) seen as a hostile force, especially as people tire of their rule (as seen with Farmaajo)

Now there’s a very simple solution to this. Once HSM is gone and we have a serious president in power. The constitution can be finalized to the satisfaction of all stakeholders. This means that Banaadir gets some form of federal status and is able to manage its own affairs. This means parliamentary representation in the lower house consistent with its population. If SSC ends up becoming an actual state then there will probably be some negotiations over senators to ensure the balance of power remains. Otherwise you get the federalism you want. This also means that a Daarood president can govern much more effectively since they no longer hold the keys to everything happening in Xamar.

There’s a common sense solution to every problem in Somalia but no one wants to solve the problems they just prefer the status quo.

Let’s say the next president is Darood in 2026. Do you think the people of Xamar will boycott the government? I feel like they will still remain loyal to the FGS, whoever is on the seat, but it doesn’t help that both Deni and Madoobe cut ties with HSM/FGS. A lot of people find it hypocritical and who knows, it might change the attitude of banadir residents. Time will tell though.

 

[AlteKartel]

Let’s say the next president is Darood in 2026. Do you think the people of Xamar will boycott the government? I feel like they will still remain loyal to the FGS, whoever is on the seat, but it doesn’t help that both Deni and Madoobe cut ties with HSM/FGS. A lot of people find it hypocritical and who knows, it might change the attitude of banadir residents. Time will tell though.

I don’t think they will. Somalia is a divided society where incumbents struggle to win because fatigue sets in and the coalitions that brought them to power break down easily. When Farmaajo won reer Muqdisho were celebrating despite the fact he was Marexaan. I’m sure many will welcome the removal of HSM. As long as the status quo remains, reer Banaadir will always support a strong FGS because they have no representation or political power otherwise.

 

[Hassan Garguute Buldanana]

The argument about moving the capital makes no sense to me for a couple of reasons:
1. Xamar is the most diverse city in Somalia. You will only see more “Unuka leh” if you move the capital to another city, not less.
2. Moving the capital is a massive waste of resources. I don’t mind devolving aspect of governance to other regional capitals (e.g., Supreme Court), in fact I welcome it. But moving the capital to another city (or even worse, a planned city) is incredibly wasteful for our dirt-poor country.
3. It doesn’t solve the underlying issue it just kicks it down the road. Eventually the new capital will grow and their people will want representation as well, leaving us in the exact same position.
4. Somalis will not be able to agree on where the new capital will be as there are no obvious candidates.
5. Reer PL want to weaken the federal government. What better way to do that than by making Banaadir its own state capable of making its own decisions? This will force the FGS to focus fully on Somali issues exclusively and not just what is happening in Wardhiigley.

You receive the bulk of everything given in the name of somalia and block my portion and you want us to support turning the capital into your clan state?. Heck, it's already a Hawiye state. The mayor/Governor and the vast majority of DC are Hawiye and you got a seat at the table when the regional leaders meet. Why do y'all act as victims when you gain way more than you lose?

 

[Hassan Garguute Buldanana]

Let’s say the next president is Darood in 2026. Do you think the people of Xamar will boycott the government? I feel like they will still remain loyal to the FGS, whoever is on the seat, but it doesn’t help that both Deni and Madoobe cut ties with HSM/FGS. A lot of people find it hypocritical and who knows, it might change the attitude of banadir residents. Time will tell though.

Do you think there could've been a so called Baadbado qaran miltias threatening a Hawiye president like they did with farmaaajo? A former president saying thuma walahi we will evict you like your uncle?






Confederation with limited FGS power is the way forward

 

[AlteKartel]

You receive the bulk of everything given in the name of somalia and block my portion and you want us to support turning the capital into your clan state?. Heck, it's already a Hawiye state. The mayor/Governor and the vast majority of DC are Hawiye and you got a seat at the table when the regional leaders meet. Why do y'all act as victims when you gain way more than you lose?

1. It’s fine for now but 4.5 won’t last forever. Banaadir could be made a state right now and it wouldn’t change much immediately as representatives are chosen via 4.5. This is about the future and the status of the capital for the following decades.
2. I don’t agree with blocking aid or foreign funds from their intended destination
3. The reason why the mayor, governor, and DCs are mostly Hawiye is because Hawiye are the majority. It is my hope that in 1M1V we see people represent their districts based on their ideas and not their qabiil, whether they are Hawiye or not.

 

[DR OSMAN]

I agree that 1M1V won’t happen in the south anytime soon. The current leadership is not serious about getting rid of Al-Shabaab. One thing I respect reer PL for is that even though it is intrinsically tied to qabiil, they have a clear North Star which supersedes qabiil and that is their support for federalism. In theory Madoobe has the same incentive for support federalism but until recently he was signing whatever HSM wanted.

Personally I’m against qabiil politics. It stifles progress, allows for the worst to rise to the top (as shown by HSM), and ensures that elections don’t become a battle of ideas but a battle of identities. I nominally care about my own qabiil and I definitely don’t give a crap about Hawiye. However, you raised a good point about losing an election being worse for Hawiye than for Daarood. The same way that Daarood’s non-negotiable is federalism Hawiye’s non-negotiable is the status of Xamar within the federal system.

It doesn’t matter now because of 4.5 but when Somalis eventually transitions to 1M1V they won’t accept the disenfranchisement of ~3 million people (minimum 70% Hawiye). It also poses an issue for Daarood. You guys don’t want Hawiye telling you what to do in Garowe so why would you expect Hawiye to be OK with a Daarood president telling them what to do in Xamar? This stifles the ability of any Daarood president to be effective in Xamar as they’re (sadly) seen as a hostile force, especially as people tire of their rule (as seen with Farmaajo)

Now there’s a very simple solution to this. Once HSM is gone and we have a serious president in power. The constitution can be finalized to the satisfaction of all stakeholders. This means that Banaadir gets some form of federal status and is able to manage its own affairs. This means parliamentary representation in the lower house consistent with its population. If SSC ends up becoming an actual state then there will probably be some negotiations over senators to ensure the balance of power remains. Otherwise you get the federalism you want. This also means that a Daarood president can govern much more effectively since they no longer hold the keys to everything happening in Xamar.

There’s a common sense solution to every problem in Somalia but no one wants to solve the problems they just prefer the status quo.

But you gotta solve things inside the framework or goal post not create your own or move the goal post as u see fit. Mogadishu wants to be the capital right? well that comes with responsibilities(goal post).

The responsibility includes it cannot take upon a clan, regional, tuulo, or even political character? why because Somalis are not the same village, region, clan, or even politics. They need to create a solution that addresses those capital responsibilities so it unifies the nation which it doesnt infact it divides people more then ever unifies(it doesnt give somali ppl confidence).

If Mogadishu is the same as any other federal region and tribal yet also capital what's stopping those regions claiming their capital? Plus colonials selected Mogadishu as capital not Somalis.

 

[DR OSMAN]

Puntland has a population that is actually worth something in terms of quality. What is your clan, where are you from? I'm sure you're from a tuulo that is occupied by AlShabab or babysat by AMISOM. Yet you have the nerve to type this with your greasy fingers.

Every adoon oo tuuladiisa iyo dadkiisa wax tari waayay baa Puntland af-huuro leh ku taaga.

I don't get the hatred for PL, they left them a federal govt that their tearing down again, no joke when PL left in 91 to 2006, go and look what that place became, only upon its return, do they even have any hope of recovery. They don't hate Isaaq who is boosting up shabab coming to harm them daily and yearly but hate PL who always seeks to help them.

 

[AlteKartel]

But you gotta solve things inside the framework or goal post not create your own or move the goal post as u see fit. Mogadishu wants to be the capital right? well that comes with responsibilities(goal post).

The responsibility includes it cannot take upon a clan, regional, tuulo, or even political character? why because Somalis are not the same village, region, clan, or even politics. They need to create a solution that addresses those capital responsibilities so it unifies the nation which it doesnt infact it divides people more then ever unifies(it doesnt give somali ppl confidence).

If Mogadishu is the same as any other federal region and tribal yet also capital what's stopping those regions claiming their capital? Plus colonials selected Mogadishu as capital not Somalis.

You’re operating under the assumption that the federal capital has to have no representation in a federal system. That isn’t true. There are many federal countries where the capital also has federal representation (Germany, Austria, Mexico, etc.) the reason why this is an important issue is because Mogadishu is by far the largest city in the country and has population on par with the largest states in the union. If Mogadishu was a smaller city comparable to beledweyne or Dhuusamareeb this issue would not be as important. You cannot disenfranchise ~15-20% of the country.

Secondly I agree with you that the capital should not be tribal. That is my ideal. As a matter of fact, I don’t believe any Somali state should be tribal. Sadly, this is just an ideal. Whether the capital city is Mogadishu, Hargeisa, Garowe, or Baidoa tribe will always matter. There is not an inch of land in Somalia that is not claimed by a tribe. No matter where you build a capital city, you will run into these issues.

I don’t understand the third point you’re making. Mogadishu is the capital city of Somalia as per the 2012 constitution. What is up for debate is not whether it should be the capital or not but the status it holds within the union.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

What do you guys think will be the most populated districts after the major cities bosaso, gaalkacyo ,garowe, qardho

Largest to smallest:

1. Bosaso
2. Gaalkacyo
3. Garowe
4. Lasqorey
5. Ceerigaabo
6. Qardho
7. Jariiban
8. Eyl
9. Galdogob
10. Burtinle
11. Iskushuban
12. Qandala
13. Caluula
14. Banadarbeyla

 

[Curious-to-wonders]

Largest to smallest:

1. Bosaso
2. Gaalkacyo
3. Garowe
4. Lasqorey
5. Ceerigaabo
6. Qardho
7. Jariiban
8. Eyl
9. Galdogob
10. Burtinle
11. Iskushuban
12. Qandala
13. Caluula
14. Banadarbeyla

Is Ceerigaabo under Puntland administration?

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

@AlteKartel The population of Banaadir is not 70% Hawiye. That may have been the case in the 1990s but it is not true today.

• The population of Banaadir is estimated by the IMO to be 3.2
• There are more than 1 million IDPs in Banaadir
• Conservatively ~1/3 of Banadir's population is made up of IDPs mostly from Lower Shabelle and Bay.

These IDPs are almost entirely non-Hawiye, mostly D&M and Beesha Jaree*rwayne.
Add to this 1/3 of the population that are IDPs the D&M, Jaree*rwayne and Banaadiri that are residents, and you can easily reach 40%. Hawiye are a majority in Banadir, but there are probably more D&M in Banadir than there are non-Mudulood Hawiye.

HG & Abgaal are very smart. They are shoving these IDPs out of their districts and into Murusade Dayniile and Sheekhaal Kaxda. Now Murusade and Sheekhaal are minorities in their main districts and HG & Abgaal can win any first-past-the-post elections in their districts by being the plurality.

 

[Step a side]

@AlteKartel The population of Banaadir is not 70% Hawiye. That may have been the case in the 1990s but it is not true today.

• The population of Banaadir is estimated by the IMO to be 3.2
• There are more than 1 million IDPs in Banaadir
• Conservatively ~1/3 of Banadir's population is made up of IDPs mostly from Lower Shabelle and Bay.

These IDPs are almost entirely non-Hawiye, mostly D&M and Beesha Jaree*rwayne.
Add to this 1/3 of the population that are IDPs the D&M, Jaree*rwayne and Banaadiri that are residents, and you can easily reach 40%. Hawiye are a majority in Banadir, but there are probably more D&M in Banadir than there are non-Mudulood Hawiye.

HG & Abgaal are very smart. They are shoving these IDPs out of their districts and into Murusade Dayniile and Sheekhaal Kaxda. Now Murusade and Sheekhaal are minorities in their main districts and HG & Abgaal can win any first-past-the-post elections in their districts by being the plurality.

View attachment 352157

Murusade make up either the majority or large plurality in Wardheegley, Hodan, Dayniile, Waabeeri, Hawlwadaag and the northern half of Wadajir.

You won’t find a single district in Xamar where non-Hawiye are a majority. If you know of one then please share it with us.

 

[AlteKartel]

@AlteKartel The population of Banaadir is not 70% Hawiye. That may have been the case in the 1990s but it is not true today.

• The population of Banaadir is estimated by the IMO to be 3.2
• There are more than 1 million IDPs in Banaadir
• Conservatively ~1/3 of Banadir's population is made up of IDPs mostly from Lower Shabelle and Bay.

These IDPs are almost entirely non-Hawiye, mostly D&M and Beesha Jaree*rwayne.
Add to this 1/3 of the population that are IDPs the D&M, Jaree*rwayne and Banaadiri that are residents, and you can easily reach 40%. Hawiye are a majority in Banadir, but there are probably more D&M in Banadir than there are non-Mudulood Hawiye.

HG & Abgaal are very smart. They are shoving these IDPs out of their districts and into Murusade Dayniile and Sheekhaal Kaxda. Now Murusade and Sheekhaal are minorities in their main districts and HG & Abgaal can win any first-past-the-post elections in their districts by being the plurality.

View attachment 352157

There are definitely a lot of IDPs in Xamar, but I highly doubt that there are 1 million of them. It’s a well-known grift that IDP numbers are inflated in order to secure UN and NGO funding. I also highly doubt that there are more IDPs than non-mudulood Hawiye. Murusade lived in xamar in substantial numbers prior to 1991 and after the civil war hundreds of thousands of Murusade and HG have moved into the city from Galmudug and other areas in central Somalia. This is not to deny that many Rahanweyn exist in the city, but their numbers are likely not as high as 1/3rd of the city. Regardless, they will hold significant political power in 1M1v.

Your comments about elections have merit. However, that’s assuming that the districts for 1M1V remain the same as they are currently drawn. Realistically speaking, some degmos such as Dayniile will need to be further split apart as they are too large.

There’s no districts where HG clearly the most numerous. They live with Murusade + Abgaal in Wardhiigley, Hodan, and Hawl Wadaag. They live with Murusade in Dayniile. Hodan is probably the area where they are the likeliest to be a plurality but HSM has been on a mission to cleanse these districts of squatters, the majority of whom are HG. Predicting who will win elections in southern Mogadishu districts is too complicated because they’re far too mixed, but my guess is that HG won’t end up picking as many seats as you expect them to. They aren’t a clear plurality in any of these districts and are unlikely to pick up any votes from other clans in the area.

 

[Karim]

You’re operating under the assumption that the federal capital has to have no representation in a federal system. That isn’t true. There are many federal countries where the capital also has federal representation (Germany, Austria, Mexico, etc.) the reason why this is an important issue is because Mogadishu is by far the largest city in the country and has population on par with the largest states in the union. If Mogadishu was a smaller city comparable to beledweyne or Dhuusamareeb this issue would not be as important. You cannot disenfranchise ~15-20% of the country.

Secondly I agree with you that the capital should not be tribal. That is my ideal. As a matter of fact, I don’t believe any Somali state should be tribal. Sadly, this is just an ideal. Whether the capital city is Mogadishu, Hargeisa, Garowe, or Baidoa tribe will always matter. There is not an inch of land in Somalia that is not claimed by a tribe. No matter where you build a capital city, you will run into these issues.

I don’t understand the third point you’re making. Mogadishu is the capital city of Somalia as per the 2012 constitution. What is up for debate is not whether it should be the capital or not but the status it holds within the union.

This argument resembles the proverb of have your cake and eat it too.

Mogadishu will either be two things:

1. The federal capital; minimal to no representation in both chambers of the parliament. But the people will elect their mayor and city council. OR the city council will be split along the 4.5 tribal lines, each tribe will have a full representation in the City council.
2. The federal capital will be moved to another location and Banadir region will be incorporated into Hirshabelle or South West State as Banadir alone cannot form a State.

You choose.