PL to begin population census

[AlteKartel]

This argument resembles the proverb of eat your cake and eat it too.

Mogadishu will either be two things:

1. The federal capital; minimal to no representation in both chambers of the parliament. But the people will elect their mayor and city council. OR the city council will be split along the 4.5 tribal lines, each tribe will have a full representation in the City council.
2. The federal capital will be moved to another location and Banadir region will be incorporated into Hirshabelle or South West State as Banadir alone cannot form a State.

You choose.

 

[DR OSMAN]

You’re operating under the assumption that the federal capital has to have no representation in a federal system. That isn’t true. There are many federal countries where the capital also has federal representation (Germany, Austria, Mexico, etc.) the reason why this is an important issue is because Mogadishu is by far the largest city in the country and has population on par with the largest states in the union. If Mogadishu was a smaller city comparable to beledweyne or Dhuusamareeb this issue would not be as important. You cannot disenfranchise ~15-20% of the country.

Secondly I agree with you that the capital should not be tribal. That is my ideal. As a matter of fact, I don’t believe any Somali state should be tribal. Sadly, this is just an ideal. Whether the capital city is Mogadishu, Hargeisa, Garowe, or Baidoa tribe will always matter. There is not an inch of land in Somalia that is not claimed by a tribe. No matter where you build a capital city, you will run into these issues.

I don’t understand the third point you’re making. Mogadishu is the capital city of Somalia as per the 2012 constitution. What is up for debate is not whether it should be the capital or not but the status it holds within the union.

Mogadishu wasn't named by Somalis as a capital but colonial so legally speaking, it stands on no legal grounds or social approval. But forget that for one moment, for Mogadishu to get the same representation as regions means it is a region and has to cede capital function(you can't eat your cake both ways either your capital and disenfranchised or you become a region and secure representation but not capital).

Mogadishu taking a political character is dangerous if in the event Somalis becomes parties will certain parties be harmed due to Mogadishu being a party zone?

The issue around trying to function like a region vs being a capital of all the regions just doesn't blend bro, you gotta be either one or the other unless of course Somali as a whole assign or designate some status on it but then again it has to come from Somalis(as a whole) not Mogadishu. The issue around clan neutrality, regional neutrality, political neutrality (are goalposts that won't be touched to ensure the capital serves as a true capital not go down some rabbit hole and lose legitimacy).

Do u see PL talking about GM(even tho it's un constitutional) or HS, nope. Mogadishu isn't hawiye or banadir or whatever name they want to convince themselves of, it belongs to all Somalis(since it claims to be their capital) Somali waan sheegana lakin Somali hamar malahan isma galo(contradiction).

As for your arguments of other capital models that's their country, Mogadishu isn't Germany or America, it's claiming to represent Somalis as a whole and any status it gets will need to be decided by Somalis not Hawiye.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Murusade make up either the majority or large plurality in Wardheegley, Hodan, Dayniile, Waabeeri, Hawlwadaag and the northern half of Wadajir.

You won’t find a single district in Xamar where non-Hawiye are a majority. If you know of one then please share it with us.

This is laughable. Murusade in 1931 made up 2.75% of the Hawiye population. This was excluding the Xawaadle who were, correctly I may add, counted as Pre-Hawiye.

Murusade made up a plurality or maybe even a majority in Dayniile, but the influx of IDPs finished that off. Your best hope now is to cut off that part of Dayniile and consolidate a Murusade majority in what remains or try to evict ~500,000 IDPs north into Lower Shabelle.

I find it crazy that Murusade, who owned the land the IDP's were sent did not object.

There are definitely a lot of IDPs in Xamar, but I highly doubt that there are 1 million of them. It’s a well-known grift that IDP numbers are inflated in order to secure UN and NGO funding. I also highly doubt that there are more IDPs than non-mudulood Hawiye. Murusade lived in xamar in substantial numbers prior to 1991 and after the civil war hundreds of thousands of Murusade and HG have moved into the city from Galmudug and other areas in central Somalia. This is not to deny that many Rahanweyn exist in the city, but their numbers are likely not as high as 1/3rd of the city. Regardless, they will hold significant political power in 1M1v.

Your comments about elections have merit. However, that’s assuming that the districts for 1M1V remain the same as they are currently drawn. Realistically speaking, some degmos such as Dayniile will need to be further split apart as they are too large.

There’s no districts where HG clearly the most numerous. They live with Murusade + Abgaal in Wardhiigley, Hodan, and Hawl Wadaag. They live with Murusade in Dayniile. Hodan is probably the area where they are the likeliest to be a plurality but HSM has been on a mission to cleanse these districts of squatters, the majority of whom are HG. Predicting who will win elections in southern Mogadishu districts is too complicated because they’re far too mixed, but my guess is that HG won’t end up picking as many seats as you expect them to. They aren’t a clear plurality in any of these districts and are unlikely to pick up any votes from other clans in the area.

I doubt that Xamar has 3 million people, but I accept what the white man tells me. IOM says there are 3 million people in Banadir and 1/3 are IDPs. This is not only D&M but includes many Bantus especially from Lower Shabelle.

No clan, other than Abgaal, forms an outright majority in any of the 17 districts. HG are probably a plurality in one district or maybe three.

If Alshabab persist in their policies, more IDPs will continue to flood into Banadir over the next decade. A kid born in Xamar to an IDP mother during the 2011 famine is now 14 years old. If elections are held he will want to vote.

 

[DR OSMAN]

This is laughable. Murusade in 1931 made up 2.75% of the Hawiye population. This was excluding the Xawaadle who were, correctly I may add, counted as Pre-Hawiye.

Murusade made up a plurality or maybe even a majority in Dayniile, but the influx of IDPs finished that off. Your best hope now is to cut off that part of Dayniile and consolidate a Murusade majority in what remains or try to evict ~500,000 IDPs north into Lower Shabelle.

I find it crazy that Murusade, who owned the land the IDP's were sent did not object.



I doubt that Xamar has 3 million people, but I accept what the white man tells me. IOM says there are 3 million people in Banadir and 1/3 are IDPs. This is not only D&M but includes many Bantus especially from Lower Shabelle.

No clan, other than Abgaal, forms an outright majority in any of the 17 districts. HG are probably a plurality in one district or maybe three.

If Alshabab persist in their policies, more IDPs will continue to flood into Banadir over the next decade. A kid born in Xamar to an IDP mother during the 2011 famine is now 14 years old. If elections are held he will want to vote.

Nah 3 million don't work out when you look at the water plants volume per household. Their certain volume of water per person rate vs the total water volume in its plant. You wanna claim 3 mill lol u need to also show 3 million water consumption, same with electricity. At best Mogadishu is 1.5 million and even that is IDP 30% and then even inside residential areas 30% is what's known as .5 clans which rahanwayn are not .5.

Hawiye are tiny bro but live around rahanwayn and .5 populations, no joke they can't even walk 2 km of land without encountering another clan.

Why you think they hate PL, who can walk from 1 corners to another the size of 220,000 sq kilometers which is the size of Ukraine and 30% of all Somalia land territory while only seeing TOL not shisheeye. This isnt even adding juba real estate or doolow lol

Landheere are always hated plus we can back our water well count

 

[Step a side]

This is laughable. Murusade in 1931 made up 2.75% of the Hawiye population. This was excluding the Xawaadle who were, correctly I may add, counted as Pre-Hawiye.

Murusade made up a plurality or maybe even a majority in Dayniile, but the influx of IDPs finished that off. Your best hope now is to cut off that part of Dayniile and consolidate a Murusade majority in what remains or try to evict ~500,000 IDPs north into Lower Shabelle.

I find it crazy that Murusade, who owned the land the IDP's were sent did not object.



I doubt that Xamar has 3 million people, but I accept what the white man tells me. IOM says there are 3 million people in Banadir and 1/3 are IDPs. This is not only D&M but includes many Bantus especially from Lower Shabelle.

No clan, other than Abgaal, forms an outright majority in any of the 17 districts. HG are probably a plurality in one district or maybe three.

If Alshabab persist in their policies, more IDPs will continue to flood into Banadir over the next decade. A kid born in Xamar to an IDP mother during the 2011 famine is now 14 years old. If elections are held he will want to vote.

That census was deemed inaccurate by the Italians themselves so you can’t really make a judgement call of that. Secondly the population of Xamar has always shown that Abgaal and Murusade were competitors. If Murusade were as small as you’d like them to be they would not be seen as competitors which is what the Italians always knew. The Italians always pitted the two (Abgaal and Murusade) against each other.

https://fb.watch/wXGu4lb8Dw/?mibextid=rS40aB7S9Ucbxw6v

Italians build Villa Somalia right on the borders of Murusade and Abgaal territories. Everything north of the presidential palace is Abgaal and everything south is Murusade. Come to Waabeeri, Hawlwadaag, Hodan, Wardheegley, Dayniile and the northen half of Wadajir and you will quickly notice 80% of the landlords are Murusade.

The north-south divide can be seen on several colonial maps. Murusade traditional lands begins from the sea (Waabeeri) to the borders of Wanlaweyne. One just has to drive from Xamar deep into lower Shabelle and you see countless of Murusade villages

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@Thegoodshepherd I don’t like quoting pages from the Italian census as certain horgal clans for the Italians like to do because they know they had their numbers inflated. But since we are on the topic you can see similar patterns across the entire Banaadir coast. Merca and Baraawe had Murusade’s as one of the largest Hawiye groups. Same with Afgooye and other nearby towns of Mogadishu.

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[Chaseyourdreamzz]

That census was deemed inaccurate by the Italians themselves so you can’t really make a judgement call of that. Secondly the population of Xamar has always shown that Abgaal and Murusade were competitors. If Murusade were as small as you’d like them to be they would not be seen as competitors which is what the Italians always knew. The Italians always pitted the two (Abgaal and Murusade) against each other.

https://fb.watch/wXGu4lb8Dw/?mibextid=rS40aB7S9Ucbxw6v

Italians build Villa Somalia right on the borders of Murusade and Abgaal territories. Everything north of the presidential palace is Abgaal and everything south is Murusade. Come to Waabeeri, Hawlwadaag, Hodan, Wardheegley, Dayniile and the northen half of Wadajir and you will quickly notice 80% of the landlords are Murusade.

The north-south divide can be seen on several colonial maps. Murusade traditional lands begins from the sea (Waabeeri) to the borders of Wanlaweyne. One just has to drive from Xamar deep into lower Shabelle and you see countless of Murusade villages

Spoiler

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@Thegoodshepherd I don’t like quoting pages from the Italian census as certain horgal clans for the Italians like to do because they know they had their numbers inflated. But since we are on the topic you can see similar patterns across the entire Banaadir coast. Merca and Baraawe had Murusade’s as one of the largest Hawiye groups. Same with Afgooye and other nearby towns of Mogadishu.

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That census was a not 100 percent accurate I agree entire major subclans of certain tribes aren’t even counted unfortunately it’s one of the only records we have from that era

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

View attachment 352175

good information.

what is the source of the map above?

 

[Step a side]

good information.

what is the source of the map above?

It was originally a French map made in the 1950s. It’s been used subsequently by several authors, I.M. Lewis being one of them.

 

[Throughbred]

Largest to smallest:

1. Bosaso
2. Gaalkacyo
3. Garowe
4. Lasqorey
5. Ceerigaabo
6. Qardho
7. Jariiban
8. Eyl
9. Galdogob
10. Burtinle
11. Iskushuban
12. Qandala
13. Caluula
14. Banadarbeyla

Dhahar is bigger than ten of those places you have mentioned.

 

[Chaseyourdreamzz]

Dhahar is bigger than ten of those places you have mentioned.

He’s talking about federally recognized districts I think dhahar comes under laas qorey district

Somalia Reference Map - Laasqoray District (22 Feb 2012) - Somalia

Map in English on Somalia; published on 22 Feb 2012 by OCHA

reliefweb.int

 

[Malsi]

Largest to smallest:

1. Bosaso
2. Gaalkacyo
3. Garowe
4. Lasqorey
5. Ceerigaabo
6. Qardho
7. Jariiban
8. Eyl
9. Galdogob
10. Burtinle
11. Iskushuban
12. Qandala
13. Caluula
14. Banadarbeyla

Carmo iyo Dhaharne meeyey?

 

[Throughbred]

He’s talking about federally recognized districts I think dhahar comes under laas qorey district

Somalia Reference Map - Laasqoray District (22 Feb 2012) - Somalia

Map in English on Somalia; published on 22 Feb 2012 by OCHA

reliefweb.int

Dhahar is a federal recognised district, it became a district in 1985/86 , that map you used is wrong as Sanaag has five districts not three.

Somalia Districts

statoids.com

Even the secessionist "Somaliland" knows this

 

[Rayaale]

What do you guys think will be the most populated districts after the major cities bosaso, gaalkacyo ,garowe, qardho

Galdogob,burtinle,xarfo

 

[Chaseyourdreamzz]

Galdogob,burtinle,xarfo

You must be a reer mudug nigga we are on the same page

 

[Rayaale]

You must be a reer mudug nigga we are on the same page

Mudug gang

 

[Rayaale]

From ceelbuur community kkkk

@Step a side hometown

 

[Rayaale]

Largest to smallest:

1. Bosaso
2. Gaalkacyo
3. Garowe
4. Lasqorey
5. Ceerigaabo
6. Qardho
7. Jariiban
8. Eyl
9. Galdogob
10. Burtinle
11. Iskushuban
12. Qandala
13. Caluula
14. Banadarbeyla

Xarfo has a larger population than Qandala and Bandarbeyla

 

[Removed]

Let’s say the next president is Darood in 2026. Do you think the people of Xamar will boycott the government? I feel like they will still remain loyal to the FGS, whoever is on the seat, but it doesn’t help that both Deni and Madoobe cut ties with HSM/FGS. A lot of people find it hypocritical and who knows, it might change the attitude of banadir residents. Time will tell though.

What got them to cut ties? HSM wiped his behind with all federal powers and when Madoobe accepted even that in exchange for silence on JL he was thanked with an invading army in Jubbaland.

These people see themselves as victims not because Daroods have attacked them but because they refuse to drop their guard.

 

[cow]

The IDP's in dayniile will actually bolster the numbers for the district. The IDP's won't be allowed to pick a representative. End of the day the gun rules a fake 1m1v with huge IDP population will help murusade.

Infact the whole of hawiye 4.5 numbers will increase they will go from 61 seats to 120 seats. A smart move by ulusow.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@Thegoodshepherd

Average person consumes 340 litres a day in Australia. But let's nor use first world metrics. Let's even use Nairobi metrics which is 100 liters a day(even tho their in a shortage to reach full water security) they produce 550 million litres and their 5 million. They need 850 million liters to reach full universal coverage a day just for the nairobi catchment.

I can go to Mogadishu, measure household water consumption once I know the flow rate vs hours used. I can look at their bill as further proof. I can then look at their water plants full production capacity. Once I know their coverage rate currently I can ask how many houses does it reach(coverage level) and then how many houses left(u can add that up easily later).

For 3 million people they better produce 100 litres bare minimum x 3 million which is 300 million liters, and I'm being very generous. I can do it for electricity consumption also how much per kw per person uses. Noone taking bullshit spreadsheet estimates without hard assets backing it up anymore. My dad said his grandfather would measure number of water wells as a kid in different nomadic areas to gouge clan size.