PM Hamza has one key job

[Abaq]

Madobe only controls (parts of) Lower Juba. Hope the SNA takes control of Buale soon @Jungle

Most of Lower Jubba is under Jubbalands control. There are a few areas remaining no doubt and AS continue to have influence but they will be dealt with. Madoobe has not had a chance to deal with AS because he has been under constant attack from Xamar since he entered Kismayo. It would have been suicide to start a campaign against AS when Xamar was openly on the attack. You never deal with 2 fronts at the same time if you can help it, military tactics 101. We hope with Barre as PM we will have some breathing space to deal with AS.

 

[Jungle]

I disagree. Zero sum approach will ensure there is no JL statee and no federal control in JL territories. Madoobe knows he cant have PLstyle de facto independence disguised as federalism but Qoslaste cant run JL government like the other 3 FMS. Compromise is the way forward



Tribal fantasies. If Qoslaaye is even semicompetent, he appoints new FMS leaders in HS/GM/KG and the FMS appoint new MPs in 2026 2028. Qoslasye never has to worry about National Salvation Army like MrCheese. Xamse serves at Qoslasye'd pleasure and Madoobe is still worried with Gedo rivals who want Qoslaaye's blessing/recognition to move the interim capital to Garbahaarey for JL state elections selections i.e. the reverse of Garbahaarey federal election selections getting moved by Rooble



Well said. Im neutral here. But I need to add this. Qoslaaye is untouchable for as long as he has > 1/3 of Somalia Italiana parliament. It takes 2/3 of MPs to remove him. He gets 20% from beeshiisa. Fugitive MPs from JSL will vote for him since he has Muqdisho money and that gets him about 40% of MPs



Too late for dodging this thread. I actually agree with you though

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Of the 5 FMS of Somalia Italiana might be end up being the only true federal state the rest are departments of the FGS and PL is de facto independent

Besides you calling people sheegad and constant mentioning of ali geedi, I find myself agreeing with most of your takes sxb. 'Keep going' as they say lol

 

[peacemaker]

Madobe only controls (parts of) Lower Juba. Hope the SNA takes control of Buale soon @Jungle

langab still dreaming about other man’s lands. Go and fix your village

jungle is cared for by several nations and gets blown by his own cousins.

SNA is useless. If it had powers Somalia will not be like this

 

[SPMLegend]

Most of Lower Jubba is under Jubbalands control. There are a few areas remaining no doubt and AS continue to have influence but they will be dealt with. Madoobe has not had a chance to deal with AS because he has been under constant attack from Xamar since he entered Kismayo. It would have been suicide to start a campaign against AS when Xamar was openly on the attack. You never deal with 2 fronts at the same time if you can help it, military tactics 101. We hope with Barre as PM we will have some breathing space to deal with AS.

Jubaland has always resisted outside Federal interference and came on top. If given the breathing space to manage It’s security interest then the fight against Al-Shabab would’ve been in a better situation than now. Let’s admit these tribalist guys would rather see Al-Shabab in control of the regions than a Somali led state.

 

[Gadhwayne]

Says who? Jubbaland was formed and maintained despite 3 consequent presidents doing everything they can to destroy. Jubbaland does not exist with Xamar's blessing, it exists despite Xamar doing everything it can to destroy it. That's why your comments make no sense. Are you forgetting that for the 5 yrs Farmajo was in power Jubbaland didn't receive a single dime from Xamar? We are not Galamudug or the other Gareen states that need Xamar to survive. If Xamar burns down today we don't care.

The previous FGS presidents never conquered Buu'aale. JL government is always most vulberable during their state elections selections. Rooble also set a new precedent you can hold selections in the wrong city a-la boobka Garbahaarey. He can probably pay federal MPs to recognize moving the interim capital to Garbahaarey and Qoslasye might be thr 1st Somalia Italiana president to conquer Buu'aale.

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I find myself agreeing with most of your takes sxb. 'Keep going' as they say lol

As I said Im neutral in Wanlaweynistan politics I was neutral with the Cheese and I remain neutral with Qoslaaye but I always wish for Somalia Italiana getting a strong federal government

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[SPMLegend]

The previous FGS presidents never conquered Buu'aale. JL government is always most vulberable during their state elections selections. Rooble also set a new precedent you can hold selections in the wrong city a-la boobka Garbahaarey. He can probably pay federal MPs to recognize moving the interim capital to Garbahaarey and Qoslasye might be thr 1st Somalia Italiana president to conquer Buu'aale.

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As I said Im neutral in Wanlaweynistan politics I was neutral with the Cheese and I remain neutral with Qoslaaye but I always wish for Somalia Italiana getting a strong federal government

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FYI Garbahareey is a village of 500 residents from the same subclan of Reer Diini. It neither has the legitimacy nor infrastructure to become a capital. heck even some areas in Gedo region dispute Garbahareey having capital status of the region which was crowned upon by dictator Siad Barre.

As for the Bu’aale situation we all know it will not be resolved in just a couple days. It will take years to undo a century of terrorist occupation. For Bu’aale to be liberated it first needs support & Authorization from the Local Native community [Ogaden/Absame], Bu’aale is not a quick Blitzkrieg it will need huge sacrifice and cooperation between both state & federal level of governance.

@Gadhwayne you are overestimating HSM abilities. I will give him a chance of 5 months and see how he does politically. It is too early to tell which direction he follows. The difference between Farmaajo & HSM is that Farmaajo used the Marehan card (West Gedo) to undermine Jubbaland and still failed to defeat Jubbaland. On the other hand HSM is Wecesle his Irir Samaale card from the past failed to make progress so he has no Tribal influence to undermine Jubbaland. His only bet is to cause political mischief if he plans to and that will also backfire.

 

[abz1991]

FYI Garbahareey is a village of 500 residents from the same subclan of Reer Diini. It neither has the legitimacy nor infrastructure to become a capital. heck even some areas in Gedo region dispute Garbahareey having capital status of the region which was crowned upon by dictator Siad Barre.

As for the Bu’aale situation we all know it will not be resolved in just a couple days. It will take years to undo a century of terrorist occupation. For Bu’aale to be liberated it first needs support & Authorization from the Local Native community [Ogaden/Absame], Bu’aale is not a quick Blitzkrieg it will need huge sacrifice and cooperation between both state & federal level of governance.

@Gadhwayne you are overestimating HSM abilities. I will give him a chance of 5 months and see how he does politically. It is too early to tell which direction he follows. The difference between Farmaajo & HSM is that Farmaajo used the Marehan card (West Gedo) to undermine Jubbaland and still failed to defeat Jubbaland. On the other hand HSM is Wecesle his Irir Samaale card from the past failed to make progress so he has no Tribal influence to undermine Jubbaland. His only bet is to cause political mischief if he plans to and that will also backfire.

I think Buaale can be captured quite easily. Al shabaab strategic position is jilib and lower shabeele to qoryooley. If jubbaland attack Buaale al shabaab will flee like they fleed baraawe in 2014

 

[SPMLegend]

I think Buaale can be captured quite easily. Al shabaab strategic position is jilib and lower shabeele to qoryooley. If jubbaland attack Buaale al shabaab will flee like they fleed baraawe in 2014

Yeah it’s strategically safer and convenient for Bu’aale to be liberated following the liberation of Jilib. if Jubbaland manages to liberate Jilib the rest will fall. It all depends on whether the Federal government stops the political infighting and makes the war on terrorism their number one priority.

 

[Abaq]

The previous FGS presidents never conquered Buu'aale. JL government is always most vulberable during their state elections selections. Rooble also set a new precedent you can hold selections in the wrong city a-la boobka Garbahaarey. He can probably pay federal MPs to recognize moving the interim capital to Garbahaarey and Qoslasye might be thr 1st Somalia Italiana president to conquer Buu'aale.

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As I said Im neutral in Wanlaweynistan politics I was neutral with the Cheese and I remain neutral with Qoslaaye but I always wish for Somalia Italiana getting a strong federal government

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Qoslaaye can select all the federal MPs himself all he likes, we don't care about what happens in Xamar. The reality is we made Jubbaland and built it from the scratch without Xamar's blessings and we will continue to rule it with or without Xamar's blessings by the will of God.

 

[InaShaqalle]

HAB will serve HSM the same way Cagjar serves Abiy

 

[InaShaqalle]

Why is Puntland allegedly reluctant to meet their own leader Hamza Barre according to this video

 

[Kramer]

Why is Puntland allegedly reluctant to meet their own leader Hamza Barre according to this video

why did hag nation supply uniforms to al shaytaan?

why would you meet with terrorists sympathizers

so many questions lol

 

[NinWero]

FYI Garbahareey is a village of 500 residents from the same subclan of Reer Diini. It neither has the legitimacy nor infrastructure to become a capital. heck even some areas in Gedo region dispute Garbahareey having capital status of the region which was crowned upon by dictator Siad Barre.

As for the Bu’aale situation we all know it will not be resolved in just a couple days. It will take years to undo a century of terrorist occupation. For Bu’aale to be liberated it first needs support & Authorization from the Local Native community [Ogaden/Absame], Bu’aale is not a quick Blitzkrieg it will need huge sacrifice and cooperation between both state & federal level of governance.

@Gadhwayne you are overestimating HSM abilities. I will give him a chance of 5 months and see how he does politically. It is too early to tell which direction he follows. The difference between Farmaajo & HSM is that Farmaajo used the Marehan card (West Gedo) to undermine Jubbaland and still failed to defeat Jubbaland. On the other hand HSM is Wecesle his Irir Samaale card from the past failed to make progress so he has no Tribal influence to undermine Jubbaland. His only bet is to cause political mischief if he plans to and that will also backfire.

The biggest factor no one considered is that there are 5000 troops coming from Eritrea shortly, they have to go somewhere, and most likely it would be in the Jubba region.

If HSM really wants to screw Jubbaland he could easily do it, with FGS troops supported by anti Ahmed Madoobe coalition.

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

The biggest factor no one considered is that there are 5000 troops coming from Eritrea shortly, they have to go somewhere, and most likely it would be in the Jubba region.

If HSM really wants to screw Jubbaland he could easily do it, with FGS troops supported by anti Ahmed Madoobe coalition.

Do you think 5000 troops trained in Eritrea will posses super powers?
HSM if he plays with madoobe its end of him.
Let him first flex his muscles with Lafta Gareen.
Irir card ia useless in somalia today.
Try using it at ypur own expense.

 

[NinWero]

Do you think 5000 troops trained in Eritrea will posses super powers?
HSM if he plays with madoobe its end of him.
Let him first flex his muscles with Lafta Gareen.
Irir card ia useless in somalia today.
Try using it at ypur own expense.

The truth is Ahmed Madoobe is standing on one leg, without Kenya's support he's toast. Now if HSM wanted to send 1000 men to Jubbaland supported by the FGS, I doubt anyone can do anything not even Ahmed Madoobe.

However I doubt that would be the case, especially since Hamza Bare is the PM.

 

[SPMLegend]

The biggest factor no one considered is that there are 5000 troops coming from Eritrea shortly, they have to go somewhere, and most likely it would be in the Jubba region.

If HSM really wants to screw Jubbaland he could easily do it, with FGS troops supported by anti Ahmed Madoobe coalition.

15k mercenaries trained by Turkey couldn’t do the trick I doubt 5k mercenaries trained by Eritrea with mixed loyalties to Farmaajo will bring any fruit.

 

[Rationale]

I don't see Madobe or Kenya as an enemy of Hawiye. I see him as one of the wadaads that fought Ethiopia. And anyways I have no interest doing MX any favor by dislodging him from JL.

Madobe and us will get along as long as he doesn't go against Banadir state.

 

[Removed]

The truth is Ahmed Madoobe is standing on one leg, without Kenya's support he's toast. Now if HSM wanted to send 1000 men to Jubbaland supported by the FGS, I doubt anyone can do anything not even Ahmed Madoobe.

However I doubt that would be the case, especially since Hamza Bare is the PM.

Has Kenya ever fought a clan militia or really anything but AS?

Who has more Amisom troops all of JL or LS/Benadir

 

[NinWero]

15k mercenaries trained by Turkey couldn’t do the trick I doubt 5k mercenaries trained by Eritrea with mixed loyalties to Farmaajo will bring any fruit.

Where are these 15K mercenaries you are talking and when did they ever attack Jubbaland

I know, for one thing, a massive campaign will start in the next few months, in the Jubba's. It will consist of FSG forces backed by U.S aircover and ATMIS forces. It's best Ahmed Maboode stays on good terms with FGS, even tho I think HSM and his gov don't really mind Ahmed Maboode that much.

 

[bidenkulaha]

15k mercenaries trained by Turkey couldn’t do the trick I doubt 5k mercenaries trained by Eritrea with mixed loyalties to Farmaajo will bring any fruit.

You guys are lying to yourself about those Turkish troops ever going to JL. Farmaajo could barely conscript 1,000 let alone 15,000 to be sent to JL. There’s a reason he had to use Ethiopian troops everywhere for his elections because he didn’t have control over those trained troops like he wanted.

HSM unlike Farmaajo can send 10s of thousands of HAG troops to JL if he wanted. But for now there’s no need. They should be focused on liberating all of the shabellaha and Galgaduud