Puntland Local Election 2024

[Midwestern]

Gaas drops out of the race. What was the point of spending $30k ?

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

Projection in round #1: vote tally at midnight per camp:

• Deni: 20
• Cawad: 11
• Guled: 11
• Abgaal: 9
• Huruuse: 8
• Asad: 3

 

[Abdalla]

Projection in round #1: vote tally at midnight per camp:

• Deni: 20
• Cawad: 11
• Guled: 11
• Abgaal: 9
• Huruuse: 8
• Asad: 3

If Deni doesn’t get 30 votes in the first round, he’s toast.

Deni doesn’t have a campaign manager. He’s striking the deals individually as it befits a kaligii taliye

 

[Abdalla]

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It will reach 100-150k in the coming days. Cawad is said to refuse paying anything to the MPs.

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

It will reach 100-150k in the coming days. Cawad is said to refuse paying anything to the MPs.

FYI, election is just hours away, unless of course you are writing from the distant future, in which case, never mind.

 

[Abdalla]

FYI, election is just hours away, unless of course you are writing from the distant future, in which case, never mind.

Thanks for the critical eye. Who do you think will win? Deni’s chances are very slim.

 

[Abdalla]

There are currently 38 MPs in Deni’s house. Cawad is reported to have strike a deal with Deni.

 

[Hassan Garguute Buldanana]

There are currently 38 MPs in Deni’s house. Cawad is reported to have strike a deal with Deni.

How many are needed to win in the first rd?

 

[Abdalla]

How many are needed to win in the first rd?

34 regardless of rounds

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

Thanks for the critical eye. Who do you think will win? Deni’s chances are very slim.

It is hard to predict, but reer Garowe cafe analysts are projecting a similar scenario as Haashi vs Cadde in 2005 where Hashi was leading in rounds 1 & 2, but Cadde clinched it in round 3 with Faroole switching to his side. In this case, Deni vs Cawad or Huruse with Deni losing in round 3 to either, most likely to Cawad, albeit he is said to be running on an empty tank whereas Huruse is the Trump in this race financing his campaign.

City has not slept tonight.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Second round: Deni, Ina Shire Abgaal, Guuleed Saalax Barre, Adam Sheekhdoon
Third round: Deni & Ina Shire Abgaal
Winner: Deni with ~45 votes

 

[FBIsomalia]

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Inform your uncle to take his money back, .

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

Stage is set.

 

[FAST_LANE]

Darood political standing at stake. If anybody other than Deni wins this elections, we are all doomed. If Deni comes back, HSM will have to deal with him in his last two years.

 

[Enlightenednomad]

Deni selected 46 of the 66 MPs that were sworn in to the parliament. He should have 30+ votes in the first round. Ictisaam is heavily backing Aden Sheikhdoon with a war chest so I can see him entering the second round alongside Deni. Ictisaam backed Ina Diyaano during the last election with the support of Boqor Burhaan who is closely affiliated with this group.

Aaran Jaan are actually split into two camps but they will support each other in the final rounds. Cawad has a close personal relationship with Mohamud Shido despite him denying any affiliation with this camp and the other candidate he is backing is Hassan Shire Abigail who along with supporters from AJ has funds from Villa Somalia.

Guled Salaax has widespread support from the civil society in PL and was actually along with finance minister Dhabancad and Hassan Shire Abgaal, the main drivers behind Deni's win in 2019. He is reportedly has support from several factions including Nabad & Nolol according to Geylan. Huruuse is a one man band and isn't really in bed with other factions. In Somali politics, deep pockets won't do you any good without establishing extensive networks of support within the elite and civil society.

I predict the final round being between Deni or one of Cawad (Aaran Jaan) or Aden Sheikhdoon (Ictisaam).

 

[Gaarasho]

Deni selected 46 of the 66 MPs that were sworn in to the parliament. He should have 30+ votes in the first round. Ictisaam is heavily backing Aden Sheikhdoon with a war chest so I can see him entering the second round alongside Deni. Ictisaam backed Ina Diyaano during the last election with the support of Boqor Burhaan who is closely affiliated with this group.

Aaran Jaan are actually split into two camps but they will support each other in the final rounds. Cawad has a close personal relationship with Mohamud Shido despite him denying any affiliation with this camp and the other candidate he is backing is Hassan Shire Abigail who along with supporters from AJ has funds from Villa Somalia.

Guled Salaax has widespread support from the civil society in PL and was actually along with finance minister Dhabancad and Hassan Shire Abgaal, the main drivers behind Deni's win in 2019. He is reportedly has support from several factions including Nabad & Nolol according to Geylan. Huruuse is a one man band and isn't really in bed with other factions. In Somali politics, deep pockets won't do you any good without establishing extensive networks of support within the elite and civil society.

I predict the final round being between Deni or one of Cawad (Aaran Jaan) or Aden Sheikhdoon (Ictisaam).

Where can I watch the live election

 

[Enlightenednomad]

Where can I watch the live election

Puntland Parliament page on FB is where I'm watching it from.

https://fb.watch/priS1PXhAw/?mibextid=Nif5oz

 

[Aurelian]

when you did nothing in the group presentation, and just took the notes and read it out.

 

[Enlightenednomad]

Gaas drops out of the race. What was the point of spending $30k ?

Apparently Gaas didn't even show up. You must sign a sworn declaration that you will accept the outcome of the election which every other candidate has just signed therefore he has been removed from contention.

 

[Manzana]

5 more years for Dani. Let's go!