Puntland minister wants the population to reach 8-10 million by 2040

[Chaseyourdreamzz]

Now this video is from January 2022 but I thought it was interesting According to this minister of puntland he estimates the population to be 3 mill plus and he hopes to increase the population by more then 2-3 times in 18 years what do y’all think about this

 

[DR OSMAN]

I think it's closer to 4.5 million if u include Darawish/Makhir. 3 million is the estimate of Majerten Zone. I've used various models to reach that conclusion. I used Garissa which is censused by Kenya to 900k-1 million. Garissa is 45,000 SQ KM. Majerteniya is 150,000 SQ KM. That's 3 times the size of Garissa, so it's 3 million. I also estimated against Hamar.

PL is 50 districts(that's short changing it) as some districts exist that hasn't been given it's due process. Hamar is 16 district for 1.5 million. 16 districts x 3 = 48 districts. That's essentially 3 Mogadishus x 1.5 million= 4.5 million for Harti Puntland zone. PL and Harti as a whole can create 3 mogadishus. Not including Doolo or Lower Jubba.

Every model I use for PL including Makhir/SSC is around 4 to 4.5 million

 

[El Nino]

Now this video is from January 2022 but I thought it was interesting According to this minister of puntland he estimates the population to be 3 mill plus and he hopes to increase the population by more then 2-3 times in 18 years what do y’all think about

High fertility populations will double in 20 years time so it will not be 8 mil but 6 million.

The population could get higher if maternal healthcare is provided to all even among the rural areas, FGM is outlawed and we have huge amount of gyneagologist reversing the damage this horrific practise has done to women. We must also provide food and safe, clean space for people so their children survive.

 

[Chaseyourdreamzz]

I think it's closer to 4.5 million if u include Darawish/Makhir. 3 million is the estimate of Majerten Zone. I've used various models to reach that conclusion. I used Garissa which is censused by Kenya to 900k-1 million. Garissa is 45,000 SQ KM. Majerteniya is 150,000 SQ KM. That's 3 times the size of Garissa, so it's 3 million. I also estimated against Hamar.

PL is 50 districts(that's short changing it) as some districts exist that hasn't been given it's due process. Hamar is 16 district for 1.5 million. 16 districts x 3 = 48 districts. That's essentially 3 Mogadishus x 1.5 million= 4.5 million for Harti Puntland zone. PL and Harti as a whole can create 3 mogadishus. Not including Doolo or Lower Jubba.

Every model I use for PL including Makhir/SSC is around 4 to 4.5 million

What would you estimate the population of bari to be because in my opinion the population there has been undercounted especially the nomadic population of that region

 

[Chaseyourdreamzz]

High fertility populations will double in 20 years time so it will not be 8 mil but 6 million.

The population could get higher if maternal healthcare is provided to all even among the rural areas, FGM is outlawed and we have huge amount of gyneagologist reversing the damage this horrific practise has done to women. We must also provide food and safe, clean space for people so their children survive.

Somali population in Kenya and Ethiopia is growing faster then Somalia due to better maternal health care and child mortality rates Somalias civil war screwed us up but the situation is getting better mch centres are popping up in tuulos all across the country even compared to 10 years ago we are in a better place

 

[DR OSMAN]

If we want to increase population we need to ensure the following;

1. MCH to reduce infant mortality in rural areas.
2. Heavy investments into senior services to extend their life after identifying what the common diseases are that is killing them early.
3. General GP services provided to the rest of the population to address ailments before it gets serious.

Since we are region that simply hates collecting n storing data, how we monitor our progress with health investments is going to be difficult. I mean a population of 4 million, should be a simple census and data retention.

We would secure so much FDI and loans if we operated like other goverenments on statistic n data, no-one wants to throw funds to something that can't be tracked it's benefits and losses.

 

[GemState]

The higher the birth rate the higher the economic growth has to be. A lot of African countries have actually become poorer over the last 40 years since population growth is higher than economic growth. Somewhere like Somalia needs 5% GDP growth just not to get poorer.

Somalia isn't a South Sudan or CAR where it can easily feed 4-5x its population just through stability + increasing agricultural output. We will surpass our carrying capacity very soon, what the minister is saying is insane. Forget PL, all of Somalia should not have more than 8 million

 

[Chaseyourdreamzz]

The higher the birth rate the higher the economic growth has to be. A lot of African countries have actually become poorer over the last 40 years since population growth is higher than economic growth. Somewhere like Somalia needs 5% GDP growth just not to actually get poorer.

Somalia isn't a South Sudan or CAR where it can easily feed 4-5x its population just through stability + increasing agricultural output. We will surpass our carrying capacity very soon, what the minister is saying is insane. All of Somalia should not have more than 8 million

What then happens when Somalia passes carrying capacity could you explain also where do you see somalia by 2040

 

[GemState]

What then happens when Somalia passes carrying capacity could you explain

It means Somalia can't feed itself even after completely developing the Juba valley.

 

[DR OSMAN]

The higher the birth rate the higher the economic growth has to be. A lot of African countries have actually become poorer over the last 40 years since population growth is higher than economic growth. Somewhere like Somalia needs 5% GDP growth just not to get poorer.

Somalia isn't a South Sudan or CAR where it can easily feed 4-5x its population just through stability + increasing agricultural output. We will surpass our carrying capacity very soon, what the minister is saying is insane. Forget PL, all of Somalia should not have more than 8 million

Food security is about how you 'use' fertile land not how big your 'acreage' fertile land is. Holland can outproduce the whole sub-sahara continent's fertile land with a land mass the size of Garissa.

 

[GemState]

Food security is about how you 'use' fertile land not how big your 'acreage' fertile land is. Holland can outproduce the whole sub-sahara continent's fertile land with a land mass the size of Garissa.

Holland has some of the highest human capital on the planet and the land is comprised of some of the most fertile soil in the world, similar to Bangladesh. Literally nothing we can learn from them. If Niger or Mali ever escape the malthusian trap, thats what we can learn from

 

[DR OSMAN]

@GemState is right about population control vs economic growth. China single child policy reduced it's population while they were rebuilding it's economy, where-as India didn't and you can see the drastic difference in both country GDP.

What Gemstate forget to analyse is If Somalia economy grows at a stable 5% a year, we want to add 5% growth to our population each year. If we are 4 million in 2022, in 2040 we want to be somewhere near 5% x 20 years=100% growth, that's 8 million the minister was right. 8-10 Million.

We won't be richer GDP per capita but will maintain the same living standard. The minister criticism I have is, he needs to identify 'big earning GDP activities' for puntland population, not 'farming' which is the cheapest commodity and simply a poor man's economy. There is no nation where farming is the primary GDP activity that is first or even second world.

We should only do farming to secure our food security and then ditch it immediately not put time/effort of puntites into a dead industry where it's only heading to 'third world' status becuz the produces are cheap and time n financial effort put in is 'measly returns' and the supply chain across the board will be penny chasers kkkkk

 

[Chaseyourdreamzz]

Somalia will be an interesting place in 20-30 years I wonder what the population projections will be

 

[JaredAbdullahiKushner2000]

Somalia will be an interesting place in 20-30 years I wonder what the population projections will be

Mass starvation, wiped out by disseases, weak government implodes, country becomes unbearable hell hole.

 

[Dima&Damo]

 

[Hilmaam]

Climate change will make somalia very harsh place to live. Will get hotter and dryer and more reoccurring droughts. This seems like recipe for disaster unless some of us are able to move to Ethiopian highlands

 

[Dima&Damo]

Climate change will make somalia very harsh place to live. Will get hotter and dryer and more reoccurring droughts. This seems like recipe for disaster unless some of us are able to move to Ethiopian highlands

I have suggested to my tool maybe madagascar would be more fortunate for us somaliyee can be our museum

 

[Chaseyourdreamzz]

Mass starvation, wiped out

Climate change will make somalia very harsh place to live. Will get hotter and dryer and more reoccurring droughts. This seems like recipe for disaster unless some of us are able to move to Ethiopian highlands

Climate change is already having its effects I think there will be a lot of climate refugees in the next few decades unfortunately and with a fastest growing population = more displacement

 

[Aurelian]

But can he feed them all?

 

[JaredAbdullahiKushner2000]

Climate change is already having its effects I think there will be a lot of climate refugees in the next few decades unfortunately and with a fastest growing population = more displacement

Maybe this is not the permanent solution but this is a long term solution. Read this thread I made Thread Also what we must do is take over the Bale mountains. The wars in the future are fought over water and Ethiopia and Kenya have plenty of water. Somalia is in a better position than both Kenya and Ethiopia. Ethiopia is dealing with a civil war, and Kenya is a debt ridden poor country we can easily outperform economically. We have a huge population too that could become the largest ethnic group maybe in 2030 and in Ethiopia we have the highest birthrate and we are the third largest ethnicity of 11 million.
Again its up to us, to actually avoid the end of our dear ethnicity.