Removing the soviets: Siyaad Barre's biggest blunder?

[Revolutionarry]

Look at this shit, The soviets gave Ethiopia 11 billions dollars worth of weapons in 1977. This is on top of the 19k Cuban soldiers they brought to defend them, plus all the soviet generals training them. Damn wallahi it shocks me how much help they needed to defend themselves. Basically if the soviets stayed out and the U.S never intervened, we would have cooked them like steaks!


This is the weapons.

I did a quick conversion and this is how much that money would be today. "$11,000,000,000 in 1977 is equivalent in purchasing power to about $55,679,966,996.70 today". This would be enough to sort out our military to match Ethiopia today. It would get us enough tanks and airplanes and ships.

 

[Keep it a boqol]

siad barre was a horrible diplomats and low iq. only good move he made was the arab union

 

[Man with a garuun]

After Mengistu overthrew Haile Selassie in 1974, he shifted his allegiance to the Soviets. And since Somalia was already pro-Soviets, Fidel Castro of Cuba and Soviets engineered a confederation plan between Somalia and Ethiopia. Fidel Castro came to Somalia in 1976 and announced this confederation plan in front of the Somalia's consultative assembly. Somalia refused this plan.

Second, the Soviets shifted their military support to Ethiopia starting in the middle of 1970s after Mengistu seized power. They saw Ethiopia being a country with a bigger population and different ethnic groups to be a suitable environment for their socialist project.

In combination of those 2 items plus Somalia receiving promises of aid and military support from the Western and pro-Western "Muslim" regimes such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, Somalia did not have a choice but to expel the Soviets and Cuban advisers and shifted its alliance to the West. Had we stayed in the Soviets camp, we would have been Kilil6 of Ethiopia today. This was Brezhnev and Fidel Castro plan.

 

[Man with a garuun]

View attachment 315237Look at this shit, The soviets gave Ethiopia 11 billions dollars worth of weapons in 1977. This is on top of the 19k Cuban soldiers they brought to defend them, plus all the soviet generals training them. Damn wallahi it shocks me how much help they needed to defend themselves. Basically if the soviets stayed out and the U.S never intervened, we would have cooked them like steaks!


This is the weapons.
View attachment 315240


I did a quick conversion and this is how much that money would be today. "$11,000,000,000 in 1977 is equivalent in purchasing power to about $55,679,966,996.70 today". This would be enough to sort out our military to match Ethiopia today. It would get us enough tanks and airplanes and ships.

This was not aid. The Soviet Union was taking Somalia's banana exports which worth at the time $300 million USD annually plus fishing licenses that Somalia gave them. So per the Somali government's calculation, we were paying majority of the arms deliveries that we were receiving from the Soviet Union.

Besides, Soviet Union did not want Somalia to have more than 45,000 troops including infantry, air force, and naval forces. The Somali military leaders led by General Mohamed Ali Samater (AUN) was not happy with this plan. They,therefore, increased the Somali National Army to 75,000 soldiers without the consultation of Soviet leaders.

Furthermore, the top 300 posts of the Soviet government's leadership were once held by Zionist Jews. In 1972, we joined the Arab League. The Soviet Union had a plan of providing inferior weapons to Egypt, Syria, and Somalia compare to their adversaries. This is the reason why Israel always had a technological edge over its Arab opponents, and this is the reason why Ethiopia always had a better air force than Somalia. The Soviet support to Somalia was never about wholehearted support. It was designed to keep Somalia weak and always in a position that it required Soviet and Warsaw support. And it was this background that Anwar Al-Sadat of Egypt and Somalia left the Warsaw Pact.

 

[Aurelian]

After Mengistu overthrew Haile Selassie in 1974, he shifted his allegiance to the Soviets. And since Somalia was already pro-Soviets, Fidel Castro of Cuba and Soviets engineered a confederation plan between Somalia and Ethiopia. Fidel Castro came to Somalia in 1976 and announced this confederation plan in front of the Somalia's consultative assembly. Somalia refused this plan.

Second, the Soviets shifted their military support to Ethiopia starting in the middle of 1970s after Mengistu seized power. They saw Ethiopia being a country with a bigger population and different ethnic groups to be a suitable environment for their socialist project.

In combination of those 2 items plus Somalia receiving promises of aid and military support from the Western and pro-Western "Muslim" regimes such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, Somalia did not have a choice but to expel the Soviets and Cuban advisers and shifted its alliance to the West. Had we stayed in the Soviets camp, we would have been Kilil6 of Ethiopia today. This was Brezhnev and Fidel Castro plan.

no it didn't need to expel the soviet at least not like what happened back then, it was more like a russophobia. Siyaad barre could have dragged his feet with the confederation plan, and proposed a modification to it, in a way it will gave somalia the control of Somali-speaking areas of the confederation. Ethiopia was already going to have troubles and instability.

 

[Revolutionarry]

no it didn't need to expel the soviet at least not like what happened back then, it was more like a russophobia. Siyaad barre could have dragged his feet with the confederation plan, and proposed a modification to it, in a way it will gave somalia the control of Somali-speaking areas of the confederation. Ethiopia was already going to have troubles and instability.

He was relying on the U.S to support him since the soviets and the U.S were at cold war with each other. When Jimmy carter refused to support, that's when we lost. This is the only time U.S didn't support a country that was fighting another country that was supported by Russia. We have the worst luck lol.

 

[Revolutionarry]

This was not aid. The Soviet Union was taking Somalia's banana exports which worth at the time $300 million USD annually plus fishing licenses that Somalia gave them. So per the Somali government's calculation, we were paying majority of the arms deliveries that we were receiving from the Soviet Union.

Besides, Soviet Union did not want Somalia to have more than 45,000 troops including infantry, air force, and naval forces. The Somali military leaders led by General Mohamed Ali Samater (AUN) was not happy with this plan. They,therefore, increased the Somali National Army to 75,000 soldiers without the consultation of Soviet leaders.

Furthermore, the top 300 posts of the Soviet government's leadership were once held by Zionist Jews. In 1972, we joined the Arab League. The Soviet Union had a plan of providing inferior weapons to Egypt, Syria, and Somalia compare to their adversaries. This is the reason why Israel always had a technological edge over its Arab opponents, and this is the reason why Ethiopia always had a better air force than Somalia. The Soviet support to Somalia was never about wholehearted support. It was designed to keep Somalia weak and always in a position that it required Soviet and Warsaw support. And it was this background that Anwar Al-Sadat of Egypt and Somalia left the Warsaw Pact.

Even if they didn't support us massively, they would have stayed neutral. It's their support that won Ethiopia the war. Without this amount of weapons, Ethiopia would simply be too weak for us.

 

[Yazi]

You should read transcript of the meeting between Said Barre & Mengitsu in Aden. Afweyne was hella arrogant and disrespectful. He vilely threatened Ethiopia in the presence of the Soviets. Dude was a total nutcase I don't blame Soviets for dropping us, Barre was a mental.

https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/transcript-meeting-between-east-german-leader-erich-honecker-and-cuban-leader-fidel-castro

 

[Somali Saayid]

You should read transcript of the meeting between Said Barre & Mengitsu in Aden. Afweyne was hella arrogant and disrespectful. He vilely threatened Ethiopia in the presence of the Soviets. Dude was a total nutcase I don't blame Soviets for dropping us, Barre was a mental.

https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/transcript-meeting-between-east-german-leader-erich-honecker-and-cuban-leader-fidel-castro

Wtf would you be respectful or humble in front of bastard itoobiyan who were mopping up civil conflict in their country while MSB was leading Somalia throughly a golden age, they sure as hell aren’t humble today. Soviets were always gonna drop us and pick the itoobiyans it was just a matter of time. I wonder what would’ve happened when used collapsed, what would the effect on Somalia be, also why you calling his grandpa mental? He sure as hell wasn’t leading the country. I think people forget his name is Mohamed - Siyaad - Barre. Lool you would think his dad was president.

 

[Yazi]

TLDR: Soviets set a meeting in Aden between Barre & Mengitsu. Barre demanded Somali Galbeed. Mengitsu half-heartedly agreed & said we can negotiate that but not now as he is facing a rebellion. The Soviets warned Barre from attacking Mengitsu as they clearly consider Ethiopia's rebel that dethroned Selassie a socialist revolution. Barre claimed he'll never attack Ethiopia but then did.


This transcript tells us Said Barre was a shortsighted, arrogant and reckless politician who basically fumbled the bag. It was clear home-run for Somalia and Barre botched it. To think Somalia collapsed because this imbecile went mental and somehow, he's regarded as the best president in Somalia's history

 

[Yazi]

Wtf would you be respectful or humble in front of bastard itoobiyan who were mopping up civil conflict in their country while MSB was leading Somalia throughly a golden age, they sure as hell aren’t humble today.

Because your Superpower Alley who's handing most of your military equipments & training clearly said Ethiopia is a new alley against the west. Mengitsu kept quite and spoke with respect explaining his position to Soviets, clearly giving away Ogaden would set off the powderkeg in Ethiopia, turn his Allies against him and get him dethroned. Eventually he was dethroned a decade and a half later but he survived the Somali invasion and not only that, he caused the total destruction of his eternal rival in the region, Somalia. To this day, Ethiopia is the regional power in the horn and bullying everyone. On all metrics Said Barre failed Somalia in 1977 had he waited out Meles Zenawi marching into Addis we could have secured Ogaden and preserved the Somali State while playing the rebel groups in Ethiopia against each other preventing TPLF or any single group from emerging as a winner.

 

[Somali Saayid]

Because your Superpower Alley who's handing most of your military equipments & training clearly said Ethiopia is a new alley against the west. Mengitsu kept quite and spoke with respect to Soviets clearly giving away Ogaden would turn his Allies against him and get him dethroned. Eventually he was dethroned a decade and a half later but he survived the Somali invasion and practically destroyed his eternal rival in the region, Somalia. On all metrics Said Barre failed Somalia in 1977 had he waited out Meles Zenawi march into Addis we could have secured Ogaden and preserved the Somali State while playing the rebel groups in Ethiopia against each other.

What would we have preserved, I hope you do realize by then, numerous officers were planning coups, if Ethiopia stabilized they most def would have planted foreign and local agents to instigate rebellion and conflict, the Ogaden war was literally started in the premise of “This is the time to strike now”. Somalia didn’t have a decade or a half up until then, the events of the SNM and ssdf rebellions would have happened already and Somalia would be in an even weaker state. You obviously don’t understand the events that happened after the 1977 war and how those events led to the civil conflict which ended goverment control.

 

[reer]

Because your Superpower Alley who's handing most of your military equipments & training clearly said Ethiopia is a new alley against the west. Mengitsu kept quite and spoke with respect explaining his position to Soviets, clearly giving away Ogaden would set off the powderkeg in Ethiopia, turn his Allies against him and get him dethroned. Eventually he was dethroned a decade and a half later but he survived the Somali invasion and not only that, he caused the total destruction of his eternal rival in the region, Somalia. To this day, Ethiopia is the regional power in the horn and bullying everyone. On all metrics Said Barre failed Somalia in 1977 had he waited out Meles Zenawi marching into Addis we could have secured Ogaden and preserved the Somali State while playing the rebel groups in Ethiopia against each other preventing TPLF or any single group from emerging as a winner.

the ussr were already pivoting towards ethiopia before the war.

 

[Yazi]

What would we have preserved, I hope you do realize by then, numerous officers were planning coups, if Ethiopia stabilized they most def would have planted foreign and local agents to instigate rebellion and conflict, the Ogaden war was literally started in the premise of “This is the time to strike now”. Somalia didn’t have a decade or a half up until then, the events of the SNM and ssdf rebellions would have happened already and Somalia would be in an even weaker state. You obviously don’t understand the events that happened after the 1977 war and how those events led to the civil conflict which ended goverment control.

What brought the coupe attempt and later SSDF? What brought the Ogaden refugees in northern Somalia and later SNM? Exactly. Our defeat in 1977 brought all these events later. There is a cause and effect. The Somali State was bankrupt after the war, a million refugee flooded the country and one third of the army perished in this gamble. Our "Golden Age" ended with the war. No one would have rebelled against Barre had he not lose the war. He was powerful and popular before it no body dared to stand up to him. This is common knowledge basic Somali history 101. Had he kept his cool and supported WSLF/Eritrea quietly we would be on the gates of Addis by 1991.

 

[Yazi]

the ussr were already pivoting towards ethiopia before the war.

I think it's clear from the transcript they never planned to drop Somalia. Pivoting and totally supporting Ethiopia against Somalia are two different things. Barre forced their hand and they throw their lot with Ethiopia, bringing an end the Somali State for the next 50 years.

 

[Zak12]

If Barre was smart he would have just played the long game and continued supporting rebel groups in Ethiopia. The country was already being wracked with civil war and invading a fellow communist country wasn't going to gurantee support from the Soviets.

 

[Nass010]

Barre forced their hands and should have embraced ethiopia as a short term alliance until meniscus end and than strike as that was the end of ethiopias communism

 

[Mudug_gyal]

Arent soviets like orthodox? Of course they’d help xabeshas over us cus we muslims

 

[Three Moons]

International context is important, Egypt had already evicted all of its resident Soviets a few years earlier, which was a diplomatic humiliation for Moscow. However they had no real leverage to retaliate against the Egyptians (and since Israel only took arms from the US, there was no point in trying to support them during the 73’ war to spite Egypt). When Somalia also evicted all of the Soviets a few years later, it opened the old wounds of the Egyptian eviction, they considered it a blow to Soviet prestige and superpower status.

The difference here is that the Soviets did have a willing ally in Mengistu in this situation to exact revenge, so Moscow first airlifted a gigantic amount of military hardware, but then realised Somalia had utterly annihilated the Ethiopian army, with nobody capable of operating tanks and armoured vehicles, so they airlifted tens of thousands of Cubans, Yemenis and Libyans, and all of the operations were led by Soviet generals. This was done to sent a message not just to Somalia but to any partner of the Soviet Union that had ideas of leaving or cutting ties with the Warsaw Pact.

If there had been no eviction, then the Ogaden would have remained in Somali hands for years to come, and with the Reagan administration taking office, those gains could have been permanently consolidated. Barre instead made an irrational decision without actual assurances in writing from the Carter administration that they would back him, and what is worse is the fact that the latter admin even blocked Iran, Egypt, Saudi and Iraq from replenishing the Somali Army with US hardware during the War.

One thing is for sure, the civilian administrations knew exactly what they were doing when they remained ‘non-aligned’ by keeping the superpowers at a safe distance. Play with fire and you will eventually get burned.

 

[Yazi]

International context is important, Egypt had already evicted all of its resident Soviets a few years earlier, which was a diplomatic humiliation for Moscow. However they had no real leverage to retaliate against the Egyptians (and since Israel only took arms from the US, there was no point in trying to support them during the 73’ war to spite Egypt). When Somalia also evicted all of the Soviets a few years later, it opened the old wounds of the Egyptian eviction, they considered it a blow to Soviet prestige and superpower status.

The difference here is that the Soviets did have a willing ally in Mengistu in this situation to exact revenge, so Moscow first airlifted a gigantic amount of military hardware, but then realised Somalia had utterly annihilated the Ethiopian army, with nobody capable of operating tanks and armoured vehicles, so they airlifted tens of thousands of Cubans, Yemenis and Libyans, and all of the operations were led by Soviet generals. This was done to sent a message not just to Somalia but to any partner of the Soviet Union that had ideas of leaving or cutting ties with the Warsaw Pact.

If there had been no eviction, then the Ogaden would have remained in Somali hands for years to come, and with the Reagan administration taking office, those gains could have been permanently consolidated. Barre instead made an irrational decision without actual assurances in writing from the Carter administration that they would back him, and what’s worse the latter even blocked Iran, Egypt, Saudi and Iraq from replenishing the Somali Army during the War.

One thing is for sure, the civilian administrations knew exactly what they were doing when they remained ‘non-aligned’ by keeping the superpowers at a safe distance. Play with fire and you will eventually get burned.

I didn't know about the Egyptian precedent but it makes sense now. I read before that the same Soviet officers & generals who trained the Somali army were airlifted to Ethiopia. They knew exactly how the Somali Army would fight and planned a devastating counter offensive. It's one of the main reasons why the Somali Army was defeated so quickly. They had inside-out knowledge about the capabilities of the Somali army.