Removing the soviets: Siyaad Barre's biggest blunder?

[Nass010]

Yep, the majority of the Somali Air Force losses weren’t even inflicted by the Ethiopians in the air but on the ground at their hangars in Hargeisa and Berbera. The Soviets also targeted all of the early warning radars at Berbera because they knew exactly where they were located. The use of Soviet satellite imagery also outflanked what would have been a strong Somali defence and counter attack. Somalia was an African country with a capable military operating outside its borders but it was not equipped at all to deal with a higher form of conventional military warfare spearheaded by a superpower, even great powers would have struggled to put up a fight.

Barre was an incompetent leader, the moment he had evicted the Soviets he should have ordered all of the military commands to shift their hardware equipment to alternate air fields and bases. He did not give Somali pilots enough flight hours before the war, he did not set up secret bases outside the purview of the Soviets, he did not get written guarantees from the Carter administration, he did not allow field commanders to take their own initiative, and he did not simultaneously activate the Oromo, Afar, Tigray and Eritrean independence groups for a multi-prong attack on the Derg.

The lightening fast capture of the Ogaden was entirely based on the grit and tenacity of the Somali Army.

One of the best criticism I have ever seen on this site, absolutely spot on

 

[Man with a garuun]

Somalia did not devise a multi-prong attack with the Eritreans, the latter simply used the golden opportunity that the Somali Blitzkrieg of Ethiopia provided to capture various Eritrean cities. Yes, Somalia trained and funded the EPLF and yes their leaders and officials lived in Mogadishu and carried Somali passports but that doesn’t equal a coordinated operation to dismantle the Ethiopian Empire.

Nope. It was the Eritreans who were actually leading the offensive first. The Somali military's attack on Ethiopia came second. The Oramos and Afars were also armed and trained by Somalia. Even the Sidama had a rebel group supported by Somalia. However the Eritreans were far ahead from the rest of groups and were better organized.

So we did engage with multiple front attacks against Ethiopia. Somalia was buying weapons from different countries, shipping the weapons to Port Said, Sudan, and the weapons were delivered to EPLF and TPLF, mostly EPLF though.

The Somali government also engaged with the Arab League countries to support the Eritreans.

Instead of capturing cities in the Ogaden or Eritrea for example, a multi-prong attack would have instead focused all efforts on capturing Addis Ababa with forces coming from every corner of the region. The Derg would have ceased to exist, and mirror what actually happened in 91’ or what Tanzania did against Idi Amin when Somalia withdrew its soldiers from the Uganda-Tanzania borders.

Under the circumstances, the plans that the Somali military leaders planned worked. By the end of 1977, both the Somali military had the whole of Ogaden and the Eritreans seized most of all of Eritrea.

The difference was the direct intervention of the Soviet Union.

Only then could you evict a superpower that is your main military supplier, without suffering retaliation.

We did not have a choice to evict the Russians. Our goal was to militarily match Ethiopia or do better. Soviets were drugging their feet. The same thing they did to Egyptians and Syrians in 1973 is what they did to us as well.

Starting in 1975, the Somali and Soviet relations were getting worse. For a starter, the Soviets were reducing the number of Somali officers they were training. Most of the arms shipments were heavily reduced. The Soviets knew we were preparing a war with Ethiopia, and starting in 1974 after the Mengistu seized power, they did everything in their power to undermine it.

The issue was not about the retaliation of the Soviet Union; it was expected, although it was not clear they would come in the big way as they did. The problem was the alliance we had and the promises and agreements made to us by the Saudis, Iranians, Egyptians, and Zbigniew Brzezinski did not materialize.

Here you had an American national security adviser who made promises and commitments that his president would not keep. We got into the conflict having secured the support of Iranians, Egyptians, Saudis, and the Americans.

It was only after the Soviets joined the battle in a big way that Carter and Brezhnev made an agreement that the Soviets would save the Ethiopian regime, and drive the Somali and Eritreans out, but the Ethiopians would not cross into Somalia's border. This was a big powers' moment. Carter did not want to get into conflict with the Soviets for his reasons.

We need to try to put things in perspective. In the 1973 war between Egypt and Syria vs Israel, the Egyptian and Syria armed forces defeated the Israelis in the initial phase of the conflict. Then America decided to intervene in the conflict in a big way. They informed the Russians. So to avoid a clash between them, the Soviets decided to stop assisting the Egyptians and Syrians. This is how Israel recaptured Sinai and Golan Heights.

Similar things happened in the Ogaden War. The Soviet Union came in a big and Americans decided not to support us. We're trying to rationalize our loss. It was simply due to a big game between superpowers.

Barre signed a Friendship Treaty with the Soviet Union and at the same time allowed American officials to visit a Soviet base in Berbera unannounced. Do you know how batshit crazy you have to be to invite one superpower to spy on the military installations of a rival superpower and think the latter will just forget about it?

By the time we invited the Americans, our relations with the Soviets were at their lowest point. The rift between Somalia vs Soviet Union started as soon as Mengistu seized power. As I said before, the Soviets heavily reduced the officer training to SNA and virtually all of arms shipments were reduced starting in 1975. So the Somali govt had no choice but to seek other alliances. Berbera was after all not owned by Russia, and the Somali govt was not breaking any lease.

The Saudis, Egyptians, Iraqis and Iranians all were ready to ship military hardware worth billions today but the US blocked it. That doesn’t equal a betrayal on the part of the Arabs or Iranians. In-fact during Reagan’s era the Somali military was completely resupplied by its allies.

You're mixing apples and oranges. When we were involved in the Ogaden war, Carter was president. He was an evangelical Christian whose views on Somalia and Ethiopia were completely part. Don't forget the time President Reagan came to power in 1981, the Ogaden war ended 3 years earlier.

Reagan was also a staunch anti-Soviet who supported Somalia only to defend its border. We were not fighting in Ogadenia at the time.

Keep in mind, that all economic and military assistance to Somalia from America was restricted and tied to Somalia relinquishing all claims to Ogadenia. They even requested MSB to make the proclamations at an AU summit. This policy started during the Carter administration and continued during the Reagan administration.

I can understand we all wanted to win, but we need to understand the circumstances without casting blame. We were a small country whose hands and arms were twisted by big powers. This is a reality that we need to accept.

If Barre had a better understanding of the Carter administration and its policies it could have foreseen the lack of support and maintained its ties with the Soviets, even if they were double-dealing or dragging their feet.

No, we could not foresee it. First, we did not have a lobby group in Washington. Second, even though they initially made promises, they did not carry out at the end because they did not want toget into conflict with the Soviet Union on our behalf.

Somalia had one of the strongest air forces on the continent, their biggest obstacle was a lack of flight hours being approved by senior command, which is criminal. Their equipment however was top-notch. When Iraq saw India’s performance in the Bangladesh Liberation War in the early 70s, the Iraqis sent 120 pilots to be trained in India, which came in handy during their future war with Iran. MSB lacked that foresight and completely underestimated the importance of giving pilots enough flight hours in simulated combat scenarios.

We did not. Egypt, Ethiopia, Algeria, and Libya had better air force than us. When it came to air force, we were no match with Ethiopia. The Americans provided them with F-5E fighter jets. That was their best 3.5 fighter jets. We had no planes that can match them. Our strength was ground forces. Even the SAMs the Soviets provided were not numerous enough to defend all of Somalia.

The Somali military had already passed its test when it fought a much larger Ethiopian army in the 1964 war, Barre only expanded upon that. You need to stop worshipping historic men and focus on the institutions and the hundreds of thousands of people that were part of them.

You will become a lot more objective.

I don't worship any man. The truth is the development of SNA was a good effort under MSB. He had his flaws, but blaming the debacle on Ogaden solely on him was not right in my view. Our efforts to free Ogadenia (Western Somalia) were caught up in big powers' competition, and neither one of them was committed to us (Somalia).

Our belief that Arabs and other Muslims coming to our aid in terms of supporting us financially and arms support was another debacle. We learned they get an order from Washington and London, they oblige, and whatever ties us with them is irrelevant to their leadership. The Gazans are today finding out this fact.

 

[LiveFrom]

Nope. It was the Eritreans who were actually leading the offensive first. The Somali military's attack on Ethiopia came second. The Oramos and Afars were also armed and trained by Somalia. Even the Sidama had a rebel group supported by Somalia. However the Eritreans were far ahead from the rest of groups and were better organized.

So we did engage with multiple front attacks against Ethiopia. Somalia was buying weapons from different countries, shipping the weapons to Port Said, Sudan, and the weapons were delivered to EPLF and TPLF, mostly EPLF though.

The Somali government also engaged with the Arab League countries to support the Eritreans.



Under the circumstances, the plans that the Somali military leaders planned worked. By the end of 1977, both the Somali military had the whole of Ogaden and the Eritreans seized most of all of Eritrea.

The difference was the direct intervention of the Soviet Union.



We did not have a choice to evict the Russians. Our goal was to militarily match Ethiopia or do better. Soviets were drugging their feet. The same thing they did to Egyptians and Syrians in 1973 is what they did to us as well.

Starting in 1975, the Somali and Soviet relations were getting worse. For a starter, the Soviets were reducing the number of Somali officers they were training. Most of the arms shipments were heavily reduced. The Soviets knew we were preparing a war with Ethiopia, and starting in 1974 after the Mengistu seized power, they did everything in their power to undermine it.

The issue was not about the retaliation of the Soviet Union; it was expected, although it was not clear they would come in the big way as they did. The problem was the alliance we had and the promises and agreements made to us by the Saudis, Iranians, Egyptians, and Zbigniew Brzezinski did not materialize.

Here you had an American national security adviser who made promises and commitments that his president would not keep. We got into the conflict having secured the support of Iranians, Egyptians, Saudis, and the Americans.

It was only after the Soviets joined the battle in a big way that Carter and Brezhnev made an agreement that the Soviets would save the Ethiopian regime, and drive the Somali and Eritreans out, but the Ethiopians would not cross into Somalia's border. This was a big powers' moment. Carter did not want to get into conflict with the Soviets for his reasons.

We need to try to put things in perspective. In the 1973 war between Egypt and Syria vs Israel, the Egyptian and Syria armed forces defeated the Israelis in the initial phase of the conflict. Then America decided to intervene in the conflict in a big way. They informed the Russians. So to avoid a clash between them, the Soviets decided to stop assisting the Egyptians and Syrians. This is how Israel recaptured Sinai and Golan Heights.

Similar things happened in the Ogaden War. The Soviet Union came in a big and Americans decided not to support us. We're trying to rationalize our loss. It was simply due to a big game between superpowers.



By the time we invited the Americans, our relations with the Soviets were at their lowest point. The rift between Somalia vs Soviet Union started as soon as Mengistu seized power. As I said before, the Soviets heavily reduced the officer training to SNA and virtually all of arms shipments were reduced starting in 1975. So the Somali govt had no choice but to seek other alliances. Berbera was after all not owned by Russia, and the Somali govt was not breaking any lease.



You're mixing apples and oranges. When we were involved in the Ogaden war, Carter was president. He was an evangelical Christian whose views on Somalia and Ethiopia were completely part. Don't forget the time President Reagan came to power in 1981, the Ogaden war ended 3 years earlier.

Reagan was also a staunch anti-Soviet who supported Somalia only to defend its border. We were not fighting in Ogadenia at the time.

Keep in mind, that all economic and military assistance to Somalia from America was restricted and tied to Somalia relinquishing all claims to Ogadenia. They even requested MSB to make the proclamations at an AU summit. This policy started during the Carter administration and continued during the Reagan administration.

I can understand we all wanted to win, but we need to understand the circumstances without casting blame. We were a small country whose hands and arms were twisted by big powers. This is a reality that we need to accept.





No, we could not foresee it. First, we did not have a lobby group in Washington. Second, even though they initially made promises, they did not carry out at the end because they did not want toget into conflict with the Soviet Union on our behalf.




We did not. Egypt, Ethiopia, Algeria, and Libya had better air force than us. When it came to air force, we were no match with Ethiopia. The Americans provided them with F-5E fighter jets. That was their best 3.5 fighter jets. We had no planes that can match them. Our strength was ground forces. Even the SAMs the Soviets provided were not numerous enough to defend all of Somalia.



I don't worship any man. The truth is the development of SNA was a good effort under MSB. He had his flaws, but blaming the debacle on Ogaden solely on him was not right in my view. Our efforts to free Ogadenia (Western Somalia) were caught up in big powers' competition, and neither one of them was committed to us (Somalia).

Our belief that Arabs and other Muslims coming to our aid in terms of supporting us financially and arms support was another debacle. We learned they get an order from Washington and London, they oblige, and whatever ties us with them is irrelevant to their leadership. The Gazans are today finding out this fact.

Very insightful comment thats a part of a very insightful discussion. The analysis here is uplifting and you two are putting together important pieces of the puzzle that arent easily found.

 

[Zak12]

Somalia did not devise a multi-prong attack with the Eritreans, the latter simply used the golden opportunity that the Somali Blitzkrieg of Ethiopia provided to capture various Eritrean cities. Yes, Somalia trained and funded the EPLF and yes their leaders and officials lived in Mogadishu and carried Somali passports but that doesn’t equal a coordinated operation to dismantle the Ethiopian Empire.

Instead of capturing cities in the Ogaden or Eritrea for example, a multi-prong attack would have instead focused all efforts on capturing Addis Ababa with forces coming from every corner of the region. The Derg would have ceased to exist, and mirror what actually happened in 91’ or what Tanzania did against Idi Amin when Somalia withdrew its soldiers from the Uganda-Tanzania borders.

Only then could you evict a superpower that is your main military supplier, without suffering retaliation.



Who disputed that?



Barre signed a Friendship Treaty with the Soviet Union and at the same time allowed American officials to visit a Soviet base in Berbera unannounced. Do you know how batshit crazy you have to be to invite one superpower to spy on the military installations of a rival superpower and think the latter will just forget about it?

The Saudis, Egyptians, Iraqis and Iranians all were ready to ship military hardware worth billions today but the US blocked it. That doesn’t equal a betrayal on the part of the Arabs or Iranians. In-fact during Reagan’s era the Somali military was completely resupplied by its allies.

If Barre had a better understanding of the Carter administration and its policies it could have foreseen the lack of support and maintained its ties with the Soviets, even if they were double-dealing or dragging their feet.



Somalia had one of the strongest air forces on the continent, their biggest obstacle was a lack of flight hours being approved by senior command, which is criminal. Their equipment however was top-notch. When Iraq saw India’s performance in the Bangladesh Liberation War in the early 70s, the Iraqis sent 120 pilots to be trained in India, which came in handy during their future war with Iran. MSB lacked that foresight and completely underestimated the importance of giving pilots enough flight hours in simulated combat scenarios.



The Somali military had already passed its test when it fought a much larger Ethiopian army in the 1964 war, Barre only expanded upon that. You need to stop worshipping historic men and focus on the institutions and the hundreds of thousands of people that were part of them.

You will become a lot more objective.

While Barre cutting ties with the Soviets was a very bad decision I think the worst possible thing he did was his handling of the war's fallout. Instead of cracking down hard on his opponents and bombing cities, he should have peacefully stepped down