Removing the soviets: Siyaad Barre's biggest blunder?

[Three Moons]

I didn't know about the Egyptian precedent but it makes sense now. I read before that the same Soviet officers & generals who trained the Somali army were airlifted to Ethiopia. They knew exactly how the Somali Army would fight and planned a devastating counter offensive. It's one of the main reasons why the Somali Army was defeated so quickly. They had inside-out knowledge about the capabilities of the Somali army.

Yep, the majority of the Somali Air Force losses weren’t even inflicted by the Ethiopians in the air but on the ground at their hangars in Hargeisa and Berbera. The Soviets also targeted all of the early warning radars at Berbera because they knew exactly where they were located. The use of Soviet satellite imagery also outflanked what would have been a strong Somali defence and counter attack. Somalia was an African country with a capable military operating outside its borders but it was not equipped at all to deal with a higher form of conventional military warfare spearheaded by a superpower, even great powers would have struggled to put up a fight.

Barre was an incompetent leader, the moment he had evicted the Soviets he should have ordered all of the military commands to shift their hardware equipment to alternate air fields and bases. He did not give Somali pilots enough flight hours before the war, he did not set up secret bases outside the purview of the Soviets, he did not get written guarantees from the Carter administration, he did not allow field commanders to take their own initiative, and he did not simultaneously activate the Oromo, Afar, Tigray and Eritrean independence groups for a multi-prong attack on the Derg.

The lightening fast capture of the Ogaden was entirely based on the grit and tenacity of the Somali Army.

 

[LiveFrom]

Arent soviets like orthodox? Of course they’d help xabeshas over us cus we muslims

This is the dominant pov with the elders, whats strange though is that one of the big deeals with the whole communism thing was denouncing religion, which in russia was that orthodox Christianity. They hated christianity and what came with it, and by the point of the ogaden war the USSR had been in existence for like 60yrs so even the kids were raised in a communistic athiest environment.

I like this theory out of @Yazi , he lost the favour of the heavy revolutionary govts (cuba and ussr) due to the, from their pov, unilateral invasion that Barre did. To do this while ethiopia is fragile and willing to concede ground, is pretty indicative that Barre saw the unstable ground in Ethiopia as an opportune time to strike. However i dont buy that mengitsu wouldve actually given up the Ogaden, he simply knew the hand he was dealt wasnt enough to contest it.

The soviets helped the revolution in ethiopia happen in 1974, so when their investment was threatened 3 yrs later in '77 (ogaden war), by an african man you have nothing in common with outside of the concept of "the international revolution", they protected their investment

 

[Man with a garuun]

Because your Superpower Alley who's handing most of your military equipments & training clearly said Ethiopia is a new alley against the west. Mengitsu kept quite and spoke with respect explaining his position to Soviets, clearly giving away Ogaden would set off the powderkeg in Ethiopia, turn his Allies against him and get him dethroned. Eventually he was dethroned a decade and a half later but he survived the Somali invasion and not only that, he caused the total destruction of his eternal rival in the region, Somalia. To this day, Ethiopia is the regional power in the horn and bullying everyone. On all metrics Said Barre failed Somalia in 1977 had he waited out Meles Zenawi marching into Addis we could have secured Ogaden and preserved the Somali State while playing the rebel groups in Ethiopia against each other preventing TPLF or any single group from emerging as a winner.

You are running with Fidel Castro's claims. What preceded that meeting in Yemen? Fidel Castro was acting as if he was the defacto president of all the pro Soviet countries. Where is the meeting he came to Mogadishu and declared the confederation nonsense and his "viva Ethiopia in Somalia's national assembly?

Second, starting 1975, all aid was already shifted towards Ethiopia and Somalia was treated as a not that important ally. The requirement of Somali air force that Somali military leaders wanted to be a match with the Ethiopia's air force never materialized because Soviets somehow did not want to deliver the fighter jets.

We won the first phase of the war but the US led by Jimmy Carter did not carry the promises made by Zbigniew Brzezinski to the Somalis.

MSB won by making sure he helped to free Eritrea from Ethiopia and would've freed Ogadenia had the Somali rebels not sided with Mengistu and destroyed the country.

You're mixing apples and oranges. The collapse of Somalia and the subsequent anarchy was one that was sponsored by the West. It had nothing to do with kicking out Soviet Union.

 

[Man with a garuun]

Barre was an incompetent leader, the moment he had evicted the Soviets he should have ordered all of the military commands to shift their hardware equipment to alternate air fields and bases. He did not give Somali pilots enough flight hours before the war, he did not set up secret bases outside the purview of the Soviets, he did not get written guarantees from the Carter administration, he did not allow field commanders to take their own initiative, and he did not simultaneously activate the Oromo, Afar, Tigray and Eritrean independence groups for a multi-prong attack on the Derg.

The Eritreans were heavily involved and actually captured all of Eritrea at that point. The Somali Abo (Oramo Liberation Front) and Tigrayans were formed and assisted. The Somali govt under its budget support and arms were sustaining these groups. The involvement of Soviets first focused on them and carried a huge arial campaign against them. Today, President Isaias Afewerki still talks about how the support from Somalia was crucial to Eritrean independent struggle. He hardly mentions Sudan and Egypt, but he always mentions Somalia.

The rest of your claims are gibberish. With the limited economic means we had, we beat Ethiopia. We were betrayed by useless Gulf Arabs and President Carter himself. What written agreement are you talking about? As soon as he saw the Soviets coming in a big way, Carter did not want to fully commit his support to the Somalis. The agreement was there but he did not deliver it.

The air force that you mentioned had Mig-17 and Mig 19 that Soviets provided while Ethiopia was fighting with F-5E, a 3.5 generation fighter. The Soviets dragging their feet was one of the reasons we abandoned it. They did the same thing to Egypt and Sadat abandoned them as well.

The lightening fast capture of the Ogaden was entirely based on the grit and tenacity of the Somali Army. You don't know what you're talking about.

The Somali military were developed under the leader of President MSB.

 

[FBIsomalia]

View attachment 315237Look at this shit, The soviets gave Ethiopia 11 billions dollars worth of weapons in 1977. This is on top of the 19k Cuban soldiers they brought to defend them, plus all the soviet generals training them. Damn wallahi it shocks me how much help they needed to defend themselves. Basically if the soviets stayed out and the U.S never intervened, we would have cooked them like steaks!


This is the weapons.
View attachment 315240


I did a quick conversion and this is how much that money would be today. "$11,000,000,000 in 1977 is equivalent in purchasing power to about $55,679,966,996.70 today". This would be enough to sort out our military to match Ethiopia today. It would get us enough tanks and airplanes and ships.

Because they are christian nation.

 

[LiveFrom]

You are running with Fidel Castro's claims. What preceded that meeting in Yemen? Fidel Castro was acting as if he was the defacto president of all the pro Soviet countries. Where is the meeting he came to Mogadishu and declared the confederation nonsense and his "viva Ethiopia in Somalia's national assembly?

Second, starting 1975, all aid was already shifted towards Ethiopia and Somalia was treated as a not that important ally. The requirement of Somali air force that Somali military leaders wanted to be a match with the Ethiopia's air force never materialized because Soviets somehow did not want to deliver the fighter jets.

We won the first phase of the war but the US led by Jimmy Carter did not carry the promises made by Zbigniew Brzezinski to the Somalis.

MSB won by making sure he helped to free Eritrea from Ethiopia and would've freed Ogadenia had the Somali rebels not sided with Mengistu and destroyed the country.

You're mixing apples and oranges. The collapse of Somalia and the subsequent anarchy was one that was sponsored by the West. It had nothing to do with kicking out Soviet Union.

Damn, do you have any other examples of castro showing preference to ethiopia before the war (like the viva ethiopia). Them getting more aid from 75 makes sense if their revolution was in 74, but did they reduce support to somalia? What im trying to get a sense of is who turned on who first, MSB or castro / ussr. I wouldnt be surprised if Castro/ ussr took issue with MSB for not kissing the ring and giving them decision making over regional affairs.

Good point on eritrea gaining independence, thats been a longterm problem for ethiopia

Its fair to say the collapse of somalia, while sponsored and exasperated by the west, were catalyzed by losing the ogaden war. Speaking of, if you get the chance can you share some insights on how the west took part in the collapse?

 

[Mayor]

MSB should’ve never invaded Ethiopia in the first place. WSLF should’ve kept fighting while Somalia arms them. If the invasion never happened Ethiopia probably wouldn’t have received the $11B worth of aid it got from the USSR. Ethiopia was going through famine and ethnic conflicts, it was on a path towards self destruction. That aid was probably the lifeline that kept the DERG in power and prevented the country from balkanizing

 

[Yazi]

This is the dominant pov with the elders, whats strange though is that one of the big deeals with the whole communism thing was denouncing religion, which in russia was that orthodox Christianity. They hated christianity and what came with it, and by the point of the ogaden war the USSR had been in existence for like 60yrs so even the kids were raised in a communistic athiest environment.

I like this theory out of @Yazi , he lost the favour of the heavy revolutionary govts (cuba and ussr) due to the, from their pov, unilateral invasion that Barre did. To do this while ethiopia is fragile and willing to concede ground, is pretty indicative that Barre saw the unstable ground in Ethiopia as an opportune time to strike. However i dont buy that mengitsu wouldve actually given up the Ogaden, he simply knew the hand he was dealt wasnt enough to contest it.

The soviets helped the revolution in ethiopia happen in 1974, so when their investment was threatened 3 yrs later in '77 (ogaden war), by an african man you have nothing in common with outside of the concept of "the international revolution", they protected their investment

I agree. I don't believe Mengitsu would have concede the Ogaden, had he won against the TPLF he would consolidate his power and try to expand into Somalia by that nonsense communist union. We now knew that Mengitsu wasn't gonna last forever Meles Zenawi & Isias Afwerki toke him out. Had a Somali state existed at that time we would become the new rulers of the horn. Ditching the dying Soviets for Americans like Meles Zenawi.

 

[Yazi]

You are running with Fidel Castro's claims. What preceded that meeting in Yemen? Fidel Castro was acting as if he was the defacto president of all the pro Soviet countries. Where is the meeting he came to Mogadishu and declared the confederation nonsense and his "viva Ethiopia in Somalia's national assembly?

This transcript was literally 3 months before Ogaden War. Check the date, 3rd of April 1977 and he was right. Everything he said manifested into reality. Said Barre was stupid enough to attack Mengitsu and tryna take advantage of the Ethiopian civil war despite their clear and repeated warnings. It's a primary source, from the horse's mouth, the Cuban President, Cuban forces played a decisive role in Ethiopia winning the Ogaden war. This is Fidel Castro a year later in Addis witnessing a parade by the army he saved few months eariler. You can't get more verifiable than that, his word hold wight 50 years later.

 

[Man with a garuun]

Damn, do you have any other examples of castro showing preference to ethiopia before the war (like the viva ethiopia). Them getting more aid from 75 makes sense if their revolution was in 74, but did they reduce support to somalia? What im trying to get a sense of is who turned on who first, MSB or castro / ussr. I wouldnt be surprised if Castro/ ussr took issue with MSB for not kissing the ring and giving them decision making over regional affairs.

Bro, I never bothered going to Western sources or some article. I sit down with former Somali govt offiicials who were privy to the decisions that led to severing ties with the Soviet Union and Cuba. Under the circumstances we were in and how the Soviets and Cubans were behaving, Somali govt did not have much choice but to kick them out. It is one thing to take directions from Russia, it is another when middle man named Fidel Castro is acting the man to go to before you get to the Russians

Good point on eritrea gaining independence, thats been a longterm problem for ethiopia

Both Eritrean and Tigrayan rebel forces who seized power in 1991 were heavily supported from Somalia.

Its fair to say the collapse of somalia, while sponsored and exasperated by the west, were catalyzed by losing the ogaden war. Speaking of, if you get the chance can you share some insights on how the west took part in the collapse?

First, the Western powers first tied any military and financial support to Somalia with the Somali govt relinquishing all territorial claims of the Ogadenia region.

Second, the IMF loans and dictations to focus on producing cash crops instead of food self-sufficiency were other factors that contributed to Somalia's economic decline and the higher inflation that ruined the livelihoods of ordinary people.

Third, both SNM and USC rebel groups were formed and funded by UK and US intelligence agencies respectively. These 2 rebel groups were used to destroy and fracture the country.

Fourth and finally, after discovering oil, gas, and minerals, the West and the Somali govt would not agree on how much share each would have. And even when the Somali govt tried to go alone with some of their (Western) demands, it was not good enough for the West's deep state. From 1980 to the present day, the West were destroying Somalia and keeping it tatters - of course with the Somali agents implementing their plans.

 

[Gaandheri]

@Revolutionarry the soviets were the same ones that told Sadat to not attack Israel in 1973. The west/any other group will never allow the borders of Africa to change Siad tried, Gaddafi tried, Amin tried. Somalia would become to powerful to control by east or west and not just a regional power but a global power.

 

[Man with a garuun]

This transcript was literally 3 months before Ogaden War. Check the date, 3rd of April 1977 and he was right. Everything he said manifested into reality. Said Barre was stupid enough to attack Mengitsu and tryna take advantage of the Ethiopian civil war despite their clear and repeated warnings. It's a primary source, from the horse's mouth, the Cuban President, Cuban forces played a decisive role in Ethiopia winning the Ogaden war. This is Fidel Castro a year later in Addis witnessing a parade by the army he saved few months eariler. You can't get more verifiable than that, his word hold wight 50 years later.

This transcript was literally 3 months before Ogaden War. Check the date, 3rd of April 1977 and he was right. Everything he said manifested into reality. Said Barre was stupid enough to attack Mengitsu and tryna take advantage of the Ethiopian civil war despite their clear and repeated warnings. It's a primary source, from the horse's mouth, the Cuban President, Cuban forces played a decisive role in Ethiopia winning the Ogaden war. This is Fidel Castro a year later in Addis witnessing a parade by the army he saved few months eariler. You can't get more verifiable than that, his word hold wight 50 years later.

Source: https://www.voanews.com/a/fidel-castro-left-mark-on-somalia-horn-africa/3612803.html

"
Castro's vision

"He [Castro] was representing the Soviet Union, although he did not say that at the meeting. He said Somalia and Ethiopia should join up, and said that Yemen will join up, too," Galal said.

According to Galal, Castro told them that the merger would create a strategic alliance that would control the Red Sea, Suez Canal, the Arabian Gulf and the Indian Ocean.

Castro also explained to the leaders that setting up the new alliance would bring another benefit to the region: solving the conflict between Somalia and Ethiopia over the ethnic Somali Ogaden region.

"We told him that this is about the self-determination of people, and if this federation is going to unite ethnic Somalis, we are up for it," Galal said.

The meeting ended without progress. At the time, Somalia was already in an advanced stage of a military buildup to take the Ogaden region, regarded by the Somali government as a territory "occupied" by Ethiopia.
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"I read a book Castro wrote, saying he brought Somalia to its knees. ... He was a bad man who hated Somalis," Galal said."



The Cubans were acting as if they were the middle man between Somalia and Soviet Union. Somalia was not having that nonsense. Fidel Castro running around acting as if he were intermediary between African countries and Soviet Union was a thing that would not make sense to Somali leaders. Besides, his suggestion that Somalia and Ethiopia should join up to resolve the Ogaden issue was unacceptable to the any Somali govt official.

Who cares who you like and who you hate. We beat Ethiopia had the Soviet Union did not heavily intervened.

 

[Yazi]

Fidel Castro was also right about Siad Barre's fake "Socialist" persona. We all know after falling out with the Communists he immediately dropped thier doctrine and "Scientific Socialism" rhetorics. Castro saw right through Siad Barre lies and all that parade was for Somaliweyn not communism, he called it out first.

Castro called it first.

 

[Garaad Awal]

He’s biggest blunder was being a tribalist, him being an illiterate idiot who knew nothing about géo-politics was just additional proof that he had no business being in control of the Somali Republic

 

[seldiboy]

1977 wasn’t a mistake per se but just an issue of timing. Obviously hindsight is 20/20 but if MSB had held off until 1983, when the Derg started to show serious cracks in it’s military prowess, then we would have seen a true balkanisation of Ethiopia. At that point, no amount of Cuban or Soviet troops would have helped

 

[Revolutionarry]

Because they are christian nation.

exactly, Jimmy carter said and I quote "Americans weapons won't be used to kill Christians" or something along those lines. It's the same reason why Ethiopia has never been ruled by Muslims despite being majority Muslim, same for Eritrea. It's also why South Sudan got independence very quickly while Galbeed didn't.

 

[techsamatar]

My Hatred for Communism and their Founders the Jews will never die down, Moscow Atheistic Jews could not have Muslim dominant power to become future threat to their Masters in Israel.

 

[Revolutionarry]

55billion dollars today would get us 125 abrams tanks, American made and best in the world, and it's not even close.

150 F22 raptors, the best in the world, second only to its successor f35 raptor.

train, equip and pay good salary(1500 a month) to 500k new soldiers for the next 5 years.

and about 15billion bucks left over for heavy weapons like machines guns, artillery, ant air craft guns and drones.

Somalia would have to increase its GDP by a lot tho, to cover operational costs maintenance moving forward.

btw Ethiopia currently has 42 sovieta era jets ready for combat, and something like 440 soviet and old ass tanks ready for combat. Going against them with American made abrams and f22s would be like , they would stand zero chance! We would mow them and cut them down wallahi. damn. I almost got emotional drinking my own coolaid here.

 

[EritreanPost_]

exactly, Jimmy carter said and I quote "Americans weapons won't be used to kill Christians" or something along those lines. It's the same reason why Ethiopia has never been ruled by Muslims despite being majority Muslim, same for Eritrea. It's also why South Sudan got independence very quickly while Galbeed didn't.

America invaded Serbia Cuba Nicaragua

 

[Three Moons]

The Eritreans were heavily involved and actually captured all of Eritrea at that point. The Somali Abo (Oramo Liberation Front) and Tigrayans were formed and assisted. The Somali govt under its budget support and arms were sustained these groups. The involvement of Soviets first focused on them and carried a huge arial campaign against them. Today, President Isaias Afewerki still talks about how the support from Somalia was crucial to Eritrean independent struggle. He hardly mentions Sudan and Egypt, but he always mentions Somalia.

Somalia did not devise a multi-prong attack with the Eritreans, the latter simply used the golden opportunity that the Somali Blitzkrieg of Ethiopia provided to capture various Eritrean cities. Yes, Somalia trained and funded the EPLF and yes their leaders and officials lived in Mogadishu and carried Somali passports but that doesn’t equal a coordinated operation to dismantle the Ethiopian Empire.

Instead of capturing cities in the Ogaden or Eritrea for example, a multi-prong attack would have instead focused all efforts on capturing Addis Ababa with forces coming from every corner of the region. The Derg would have ceased to exist, and mirror what actually happened in 91’ or what Tanzania did against Idi Amin when Somalia withdrew its soldiers from the Uganda-Tanzania borders.

Only then could you evict a superpower that is your main military supplier, without suffering retaliation.

The rest of your claims are gibberish. With the limited economic means we had, we beat Ethiopia.

Who disputed that?

We were betrayed by useless Gulf Arabs and President Carter himself. What written agreement are you talking about? As soon as he saw the Soviets coming in a big way, Carter did not want to fully commit his support to the Somalis. The agreement was there but he did not deliver it.

Barre signed a Friendship Treaty with the Soviet Union and at the same time allowed American officials to visit a Soviet base in Berbera unannounced. Do you know how batshit crazy you have to be to invite one superpower to spy on the military installations of a rival superpower and think the latter will just forget about it?

The Saudis, Egyptians, Iraqis and Iranians all were ready to ship military hardware worth billions today but the US blocked it. That doesn’t equal a betrayal on the part of the Arabs or Iranians. In-fact during Reagan’s era the Somali military was completely resupplied by its allies.

If Barre had a better understanding of the Carter administration and its policies it could have foreseen the lack of support and maintained its ties with the Soviets, even if they were double-dealing or dragging their feet.

The air force that you mentioned had Mig-17 and Mig 19 that Soviets provided while Ethiopia was fighting with F-5E, a 3.5 generation fighter. The Soviets dragging their feet was one of the reasons we abandoned it. They did the same thing to Egypt and Sadat abandoned them as well.

Somalia had one of the strongest air forces on the continent, their biggest obstacle was a lack of flight hours being approved by senior command, which is criminal. Their equipment however was top-notch. When Iraq saw India’s performance in the Bangladesh Liberation War in the early 70s, the Iraqis sent 120 pilots to be trained in India, which came in handy during their future war with Iran. MSB lacked that foresight and completely underestimated the importance of giving pilots enough flight hours in simulated combat scenarios.

The Somali military were developed under the leader of President MSB.

The Somali military had already passed its test when it fought a much larger Ethiopian army in the 1964 war, Barre only expanded upon that. You need to stop worshipping historic men and focus on the institutions and the hundreds of thousands of people that were part of them.

You will become a lot more objective.