Russia-Ukraine War
- Thread starter Kool-Aid
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Ukraine will have their country built from up from scratch as the West have already earmarked billions for reconstruction.
After that, you may very well be right that demographics will get to them.
But Russia will be in the same boat. There have been more deaths than births in Russia for 30 years.
When you add the brain drain we have witnessed over the past few months (Russia’s tech association claims 70K tech workers fled) and the eventual squeeze from sanctions, the future is bleak.
Russia's young, educated tech and creative class are fleeing in droves. It could mean bad news for the already-faltering economy | Fortune
Six months since Russia invaded Ukraine, young Russians are still leaving the country in an immigration wave comparable to the one that followed the fall of the Soviet Union.
fortune.com
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How can you build your country back up when nearly 8 million left and you already have one of the lowest birth rates in the world (you need a workforce).
They haven't. They genuinely don't even know how much it'll cost to rebuild or what it looks like. They EU and media purposefully lowball or don't report the public figures of reconstruction costs to not put people off Ukraine.
Keep in mind there Russia controls Ukraine's industrial heartland, 90% of its energy resources (including all of its offshore oil), and its critical ports and shipping. 70% of Ukraine's Exports (35billion yearly) have to go through the Black Sea. It's already highly likely that Ukraine will lose some of its production capacity permanently – e.g. just the destruction of Mariupol and its two large steel and metal work plants will mean a permanent loss of about a third of metals output. The Ukrainian GDP will contract by 35-50%, and the forecast recovery path for Ukraine is far shallower since recovery tends to be much harder in industrial or service-based supply chains, and the impact on capital and total factor productivity is therefore going to be far larger.
There won't be a 15% GDP growth or a Ukrainian miracle as soon as the conflict freezes, It'll be incremental 2-3% GDP Growth, see here.
https://www.fitchsolutions.com/coun...d-2023-no-return-pre-war-gdp-sight-10-10-2022
In 2021 Ukraine was already the fastest shrinking society in the world and probably the first nation in history outside of war where there were 3 times more deaths than births. The demographic situation is way worse in Ukraine.
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Here you go mate;
'Close to the limit': The US is running out of essential weapons to send to Ukraine
Washington is "learning lessons" from the conflict about ammunition needs in a great power war, which are "far greater" than expected, a US military official says.
www.abc.net.au
The United States will soon be unable to provide Ukraine with certain types of ammunition that are essential to Kyiv's battle against Russia's invasion, as supplies are being used up faster than they can be replaced.
Key points:
What Ukraine desperately needs is shells, the US has almost run out of artillery ammunition to send. Personally I believe its bull, as the MIC can offset all that excess ammunition lying around and make more bank, no one is invading the States, neither are they in a state of war with anyone.
1. Russia has always had a HDI index of 0.8+, while not perfect, is still an excellent score for a nation of 150 million.
Refer to above.
2. It's to show your hypocrisy and everyone here supporting the Ukraine, the United States can practically declare war on Sovereign nations who wish to nationalise their resources and energy, all to protect their security/economic interests, but Russia is the devils incarnate for refusing to border a hostile NATO attack dog on its doorstep, a dog willing to house Nukes and aim it at Moscow (to be clear, I'm not 100% sure the West were on board with this, but the Ukies would have no qualms doing so).
3. Actually, who knows? There are many Americans living in China calling into question the vast discrepancies of what it's like to live in the States compared to China. And the US isn't this utopia you envision, rust belt cities are empty & devoid of economic activity, cities like Seattle and San-Francisco are becoming shitholes, homelessness and rampant drug-abuse has been on the rise for decades, wealth inequality is reaching its breaking point. Housing is unaffordable with most Americans living paycheck to paycheck.
That article is from 2018, so no inflation/covid excuses here.
Here you go mate;
'Close to the limit': The US is running out of essential weapons to send to Ukraine
Washington is "learning lessons" from the conflict about ammunition needs in a great power war, which are "far greater" than expected, a US military official says.
The United States will soon be unable to provide Ukraine with certain types of ammunition that are essential to Kyiv's battle against Russia's invasion, as supplies are being used up faster than they can be replaced.
Key points:
What Ukraine desperately needs is shells, the US has almost run out of artillery ammunition to send. Personally I believe its bull, as the MIC can offset all that excess ammunition lying around and make more bank, no one is invading the States, neither are they in a state of war with anyone.
You haven’t provided a list of the most-armed nations on earth.
Even that article is stating that the US is giving surplus ammunition to Ukraine.
You haven’t provided a list of the most-armed nations on earth.
Even that article is stating that the US is giving surplus ammunition to Ukraine.
Guess you're not going to respond to my other post huh?
Trust me when I say this, Russia Is a finished power, sure they might secure some kind of L, but as a great power, they're no more.
Guess you're not going to respond to my other post huh?
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1. Russia is 42nd in the world for inequality adjusted HDI. Belarus is higher than that….
2. Comparing the US invasions to Russia’s is pure whataboutism. I don’t think you’ll find anyone that will defend American actions but the US never set out to annex parts of Iraq or Afghanistan, unlike Russia in Ukraine.
Ukraine was never able to join NATO whilst Russia held Crimea, Zelensky himself said it was impossible.
If you know about Article 6, you would know that if NATO accepted Ukraine after 2014 they would obliged to join its conflict in the Donbass.
3.
I probably criticise the American economy more than any other on SSpot, so I am well aware of its faults.
However, China and Russia with their demographic time bombs and other standard of living issues will make their average citizens already bleak existence even worse.
No one is denying that Ukraine is in a bleak situation. Even if they take back their land, it’s gonna be rough.
The West has billions upon billions confiscated from Russia in their reserves that they’ll probably give to Ukraine.
However, Russia had 1 million more deaths than births in 2021. They probably suffered a similar number plus brain drain in 2022.
Ukraine may very well be finished as a nation but Russia is finished as a major power.
I don’t live in the EU….
More than a quarter of South Africa's population is unemployed?! No wonder the crime rate is through the roof in that country.
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