Sanaag Politician 'Dhoobo Daareed' to FGS “if you continue disrespecting us (Warsangali) we will join SL and make their seceding plans come true”

[Kanan]

Somaliland missed the bus on recognition in the 20 years between 1991 and 2011. As soon as the TFG ended and a fully recognized FGS was created, the serious hopes for secession came to an end. The most ripe period was the warlord era, between 1991 and 2000, before Cabdiqassim's government. This is when the south was in complete anarchy.

What did the Isaaq do during this period? They had a civil war.

No UN member will ever unilaterally recognize the secession of Isaaq because Somalia is not at war with Somaliland.

The other reason why Isaaq's hopes for secession are growing cold is the shrinking gap in population growth between the Isaaq and Harti. As of 2014, Harti is as large as Isaaq with both at roughly ~2.2-2.3 million. Harti are also growing about 30% faster than Isaaq due to a difference in fertility of more than 2.2 children per woman. Recognizing the secession of the Isaaq would lead to a war that would dwarf the USC-Darod conflict. No one wants another South Sudan.

A simple map of fertility tell you all you need to know about the future likelihood of Isaaq recognition.

View attachment 201076

Let's be honest most of Dhulbahante in Sool & Sanaag might support a united Somalia but they are pragmatic and will work with Somaliland as long as some sub clans support Hargeisa admin.


The only Darood willing to go to war with Hargeisa are found in Buuhoodle & Baran. There will be no large scale war. I think you underestimate how brutal and devastating 2006 war between TFG & ICU actually was.


The most serious war between Isaaq and MJ was in Tukaraq has killed merely 300 people max mind you this conflict was running for over 20 years. 2002, 2004, 2007 & 2018 wars between Somaliland & Puntland casualty was less than 500 people.


2006 war in Mogadishu and subsequent insurgency killed tens of thousands directly and indirectly. The two events are not even comparable.

There is no comparison the only way forward is through a peaceful referendum. Military solution is not an option.


Isaaq & Harti are averse to conflict the IC & most importantly Ethiopia will never allow war to go in northern Somalia.

 

[Kanan]

@Thegoodshepherd more people died in Somaliland vs Khatumo conflict in early 2010s than Somaliland vs Puntland since 1998.


No body is preparing for war, relax.

 

[Gantaal97]

Somaliland missed the bus on recognition in the 20 years between 1991 and 2011. As soon as the TFG ended and a fully recognized FGS was created, the serious hopes for secession came to an end. The most ripe period was the warlord era, between 1991 and 2000, before Cabdiqassim's government. This is when the south was in complete anarchy.

What did the Isaaq do during this period? They had a civil war.

No UN member will ever unilaterally recognize the secession of Isaaq because Somalia is not at war with Somaliland.

The other reason why Isaaq's hopes for secession are growing cold is the shrinking gap in population growth between the Isaaq and Harti. As of 2014, Harti is as large as Isaaq with both at roughly ~2.2-2.3 million. Harti are also growing about 30% faster than Isaaq due to a difference in fertility of more than 2.2 children per woman. Recognizing the secession of the Isaaq would lead to a war that would dwarf the USC-Darod conflict. No one wants another South Sudan.

A simple map of fertility tell you all you need to know about the future likelihood of Isaaq recognition.

View attachment 201076

Dude learn how demographics work instead of rep[eating bs stuff like how come Harti a sub is larger than Isaaq


You know that most of Sanaag is HY HJ settlement where largest cities or populous settlement is Ceerigabo and Ceelafwenyn and Western Sool like Caynaba district and west of Xudun District is HY HJ settlements so fertility rate you posted shows that both HY/HJ Reer Sheekh Isaxaaq and Dhulbahante/Warsangeli Harti Darood have higher fertility rate.


There was no "Isaaq" civil war it was Cigaal govt vs armed Garxajis forces and Samaroon took part of he conflict on the side of Cigaal govt and that war ended in 1997 when negotiation prevailed where everyone came out as winner with Cigaal winning a second term and GX getting more seats in both houses of parliament.

Like I said before don't speak of stuff you don't know about naafyahow

 

[Gantaal97]

1991 to 1997/8/9 was complete chaos and anarchy. late 1999 to 2006 was the frozen conflict warlord era. if sl couldnt get ictiraaf then its unlikely to come. sl has a chance if amisom leave and arsenal seize konfuria.

Xamar can't keep the status quo as it's bad of their politics and they can't use military force against Somaliland that will eventually force Somalia to go back to square 1 with another civil war. There's one outcome Xamar letting go of Somaliland and have closer relations with Somaliland in terms of economic and security.

 

[reer]

Xamar can't keep the status quo as it's bad of their politics and they can't use military force against Somaliland that will eventually force Somalia to go back to square 1 with another civil war. There's one outcome Xamar letting go of Somaliland and have closer relations with Somaliland in terms of economic and security.

there is no direct harm from the status quo. "its bad of their politics" kulahaa. meeshaan shumis iyo jaceyl kama jirto. a waqooyi galbeed with no ictiraaf in limbo is better for konfuria than a independent somaliland. 10000 times better.

 

[Gantaal97]

there is no direct harm from the status quo. "its bad of their politics" kulahaa. meeshaan shumis iyo jaceyl kama jirto. a waqooyi galbeed with no ictiraaf in limbo is better for konfuria than a independent somaliland. 10000 times better.

How's better for Xamar when half of their territory messing and they keep repeating "One Somalia" ?? you know the economic magnitude that Somaliland has that Xamar politicians want to get it under its hands and let's not forget a breakaway region that officials in Xamar having no authority or even unable to visit s bad for them in international stage.

 

[Afro Asiatic]

Dude learn how demographics work instead of rep[eating bs stuff like how come Harti a sub is larger than Isaaq


You know that most of Sanaag is HY HJ settlement where largest cities or populous settlement is Ceerigabo and Ceelafwenyn and Western Sool like Caynaba district and west of Xudun District is HY HJ settlements so fertility rate you posted shows that both HY/HJ Reer Sheekh Isaxaaq and Dhulbahante/Warsangeli Harti Darood have higher fertility rate.


There was no "Isaaq" civil war it was Cigaal govt vs armed Garxajis forces and Samaroon took part of he conflict on the side of Cigaal govt and that war ended in 1997 when negotiation prevailed where everyone came out as winner with Cigaal winning a second term and GX getting more seats in both houses of parliament.

Like I said before don't speak of stuff you don't know about naafyahow

Warya why did you neglect to mentioned the thousands of Oromo militia who fought along side alcoholic egal,

 

[reer]

How's better for Xamar when half of their territory messing and they keep repeating "One Somalia" ?? you know the economic magnitude that Somaliland has that Xamar politicians want to get it under its hands and let's not forget a breakaway region that officials in Xamar having no authority or even unable to visit s bad for them in international stage.

nope. i would rather have a rogue region i have no control over than give up claims. i will not give up claims of the red sea even if you kick me out. its mine until some white men say otherwise.