serious question, do you ever see somalia becoming developed in 20 or 30 years?

[mr steal your naag 3]

is that too low of a number or?

 

[Nes]

No. Somalia will not be a developed country in 30 years. It will probably not even be a lower middle income country in 20 years.

If Somalia manages to have a:

1. GDP growth rate of 6.5%
2. Population growth rate of 2.6

With a GNI per capita of $590 today, it would have a GNI per capita of $1,244 in 20 years (2044) and $1,806 in 30 years (2054). The current threshold for lower middle income is $1,146. In 20 year's time we will be where Tanzania is today and in 30 years where Nigeria is now.

btw no country in Africa has ever sustained a 6.5% GDP growth rate for 30 years.

It depends on turkey exploration of oil we have a short window where we can get our economy to plus 200-300 billion using our oil to jumpstart industrialization

 

[Aseer]

Never, It was good while it lasted (1960–1991)

From this:

To this:

We literally devolved as a race, Only people I feel sorry for is the SYL all their efforts in setting us up gone to waste. Wasnt even worth it if current somalia is the fruit of their labour.

 

[Crook]

Spoiler

You don't have permission to view the spoiler content. Log in or register now.

 

[Zak12]

Very possible if Somalia taps into its oil resources,. Guyana, a formerly poor country saw its GDP per capita catapulted to the highest in South America after its oil discovery, with a staggering 62% growth back in 2022. Now granted we don't know exactly how much oil Somalia has yet but at least a couple of million barrels worth will be enough to allow Somalia to catch up to its neighbors.

 

[The Oponian Guild]

From this: View attachment 351153

To this:
View attachment 351156

We literally devolved as a race, Only people I feel sorry for is the SYL all their efforts in setting us up gone to waste. Wasnt even worth it if current somalia is the fruit of their labour.

Let’s address the elephant in the room sxb

 

[The Oponian Guild]

Very possible if Somalia taps into its oil resources,. Guyana, a formerly poor country saw its GDP per capita catapulted to the highest in South America after its oil discovery, with a staggering 62% growth back in 2022. Now granted we don't know exactly how much oil Somalia has yet but at least a couple of million barrels worth will be enough to allow Somalia to catch up to its neighbors.

Guyana was a stable country beforehand with a relatively competent bureaucracy and cadre of political leaders. Oil doesn’t bring peace or solve anything unless you’re a stable and somewhat developing nation.

 

[Aseer]

Let’s address the elephant in the room sxb

Nah I am not ascribing to that line of thought yet, if this xaar fest goes on for another 40 years then I might consider it...

 

[The Oponian Guild]

Nah I am not ascribing to that line of thought yet, if this xaar fest goes on for another 40 years then I might consider it...

It’s been going on for thirty years, deep down you know it’s true.

Somalia collapsed yes, but the peace process and rebuilding of the country would’ve been done long ago if these people weren’t in the equation. for how can you govern the ungovernable?

 

[Zak12]

Guyana was a stable country beforehand with a relatively competent bureaucracy and cadre of political leaders. Oil doesn’t bring peace or solve anything unless you’re a stable and somewhat developing nation.

Stability will very much happen in the coming years. Oman, Saudi Arabia, Emirates ect had trash human capital prior to their oil discovery and are now rich today.

So as long as corruption is dealt with and Somalia becomes stable, it will easily become richer.

 

[The truth seeker]

With the way things are going I’ll be an old man reminiscing on the 100th anniversary of the war and people will be talking about more aid for Somalia

 

[Aseer]

It’s been going on for thirty years, deep down you know it’s true.

I dont want to be thinking like those animals back home, I am better than that.

 

[MaliMohamed]

All Somali states will most likely always be a shitholes until the Somali ethnicity ceases to be

 

[The Oponian Guild]

Stability will very much happen in the coming years. Oman, Saudi Arabia, Emirates ect had trash human capital prior to their oil discovery and are now rich today.

So as long as corruption is dealt with and Somalia becomes stable, it will easily become richer.

I’m afraid corruption is only a symptom of a larger problem, how can stability be brought in the coming years when Al shabab occupies vast swathes of the south, when there’s internecine and almost never ending clan warfare/grudges? When the government controls nothing more than xamar and relies on fickle and ever shifting clan patronage to keep people on side?

It’s simply the truth, you cannot govern the ungovernable.

 

[The truth seeker]

All Somali states will most likely always be a shitholes until the Somali ethnicity ceases to be

Kenya and Ethiopia will annex us they already have American and Chinese support

 

[The Oponian Guild]

I dont want to be thinking like those animals back home, I am better than that.

There are people back home who lived through it, you can’t call them animals for simply relaying what they saw. this issue is the Somali races kryptonite. No one wants to tackle the problem head on.

 

[Zak12]

I’m afraid corruption is only a symptom of a larger problem, how can stability be brought in the coming years when Al shabab occupies vast swathes of the south, when there’s internecine and almost never ending clan warfare/grudges? When the government controls nothing more than xamar and relies on fickle and ever shifting clan patronage to keep people on side?

It’s simply the truth, you cannot govern the ungovernable.

That is why AS must be defeated and 4.5 dismantled with proper constitutional changes and reconciliation between regions. All huge challenges that won't happen over night but within 20-30 years I believe that is realistic.

Remember that 13 years ago the government didn't even control Mogadishu and piracy was at an all time high. There is an observable trend of improvements happening in Somalia even if its slow.

 

[Aseer]

There are people back home who lived through it, you can’t call them animals for simply relaying what they saw. this issue is the Somali races kryptonite. No one wants to tackle the problem head on.

You know who I mean that are animals its not the innocents its all people who took part in the destruction whether it was by gun, hands or word of mouth.

 

[The Oponian Guild]

You know who I mean that are animals its not the innocents its all people who took part in the destruction whether it was by gun, hands or word of mouth.

People were attacked and defended themselves. That’s it. Condemning people who did nothing wrong just aggravates the situation.

 

[The Oponian Guild]

Kenya and Ethiopia will annex us they already have American and Chinese support

Why? It’s enough of a headache for them just keeping Somali Galbeed and NFD in line.