serious question, do you ever see somalia becoming developed in 20 or 30 years?

The alchemist

The alchemist

VIP
Thegoodshepherd said:
No. Somalia will not be a developed country in 30 years. It will probably not even be a lower middle income country in 20 years.

If Somalia manages to have a:
  1. GDP growth rate of 6.5%
  2. Population growth rate of 2.6

With a GNI per capita of $590 today, it would have a GNI per capita of $1,244 in 20 years (2044) and $1,806 in 30 years (2054). The current threshold for lower middle income is $1,146. In 20 year's time we will be where Tanzania is today and in 30 years where Nigeria is now.

btw no country in Africa has ever sustained a 6.5% GDP growth rate for 30 years.
Click to expand...
GDP is a lousy metric for success. But if we use it, it is theoretically possible to rise 10 times in GDP from 500 USD per capita within a decade from 20,000 USD to 30,000 USD. Or perhaps it is around equivalent.

And we haven't gotten the rapid GDP rise because key industries have not surfaced. If certain semi-coherent systems are set up, it could be 5 years of "miracles", then hypothetical stagnation or even cyclical variance, with a sharp uprise again.

We need macro-game theory parameters where sectors' output influences others' input. When that is not clearly defined, inefficiency in economic growth is almost completely diffusionist and cannot be channeled, behaving like entropy.

The Somali economy has always been unique in that it has been extremely flexible. There is a deep historical explanation for this. Issues arise with such a mode of participation in the modern nation-state model., i.e., a lack of competent guidance without boundary discipline; you cannot even define bare minimum policy measures that can be effective without the pre-requisite. Things are too unrefined, there is much more to tap into when certain formations set the stage to define gradual growth. I think it is going to be a stagnant rise with boom cycles, rather than a gradual increase model (plateau-like shifts). Things have to reach a certain stage first.

GDP narrows discrepancies between rural life and urban concentration. There are big problems with this. It does not speak to the urban potential in itself as the nexus for economic highlight, and it reduces the rural informal value-added gains. What I am saying is, for all those reasons, GDP captures more consistent value in any developed country, even developing countries such as Egypt, than Somalia or Somaliland. There is too much vigor that is uniquely untapped. Don't be surprised if the rigid measures suddenly skyrocket. We're going to see a potential inverse situation as Japan. They suddenly saw a bubble, we're going to suddenly stumble upon growth. Meaning that the incremental growth is extremely meaningful (it's rarely incremental on the ground). It serves a formational definition, not a gradual growth purpose, for it to shoot up. This is my perspective on this.

The cashflow systems in medium to small businesses have unstable credit and market risk assessment. We need more fine-tuning and that can only occur through comprehensive incremental patient systemic buildup. It doesn't even need to be perfect, just imperfect key pre-conditions. After that, you will see an unusual rise; an inverse bubble. There is a reason why Somalis had very low economic growth for a long time.
 
AbrahamFreedom

AbrahamFreedom

🇨🇦
Staff Member
Idilinaa said:
Incorrect. The fact that Somalis score high in trust is what makes us seperate from other Africans

Entrust We Must: The Role of "Trust" in Somali Economic Life​

research.cbs.dk

Entrust We Must: The Role of "Trust" in Somali Economic Life

research.cbs.dk

In Somali business success, trust plays a vital role​


btw @Shimbiris @Midas
I also forgot to add, the other added advantage Somalia has is that it's economy and resources is largely in the hands of Somalis, if you discount the cut Alshabab makes in it. This is unlike many other African countries like Kenya, South Africa and even Ethiopia who's economy is ran by foreigners. That and also zero debt as a starting point.

It's not an hyper bole to say that the future situation for Somalia looks more hopeful considering this.
Click to expand...

Business people are regularly extorted and threatened by Al Shabab, they evade paying taxes to government authorities because they know it won't go towards basic services like infrastructure which would benefit their business, there is zero property rights and corrupt people regularly take advantage and make up false stories about owning the business decades ago and come up with fake paperwork to prove it. Workers are many times denied pay and businesses are regularly fooled by lazy workers who promise to deliver but chew khat on the job. Amina Hersi is one of the most successful business people in East Africa yet has zero business presence in her native Somaliland for instance. And the thousands of others in Dubai and Eastleigh. They trust South African townships more.
 
I

Idilinaa

AbrahamFreedom said:
Business people are regularly extorted and threatened by Al Shabab, they evade paying taxes to government authorities because they know it won't go towards basic services like infrastructure which would benefit their business, there is zero property rights and corrupt people regularly take advantage and make up false stories about owning the business decades ago and come up with fake paperwork to prove it. Workers are many times denied pay and businesses are regularly fooled by lazy workers who promise to deliver but chew khat on the job. Amina Hersi is one of the most successful business people in East Africa yet has zero business presence in her native Somaliland for instance. And the thousands of others in Dubai and Eastleigh. They trust South African townships more.
Click to expand...

Most of the heavy extortion etc are limited to Alshabab controlled areas of Somalia. Most often it just results in them paying a tax , outside of that most the business operate on high trust, social ties and institutions people build with eachother. No one is extorting each other or known to forge false business records.

You mentioned Somaliland and Amina Hersi or the sucessful businesses in other African countries.

Somalis actually own business in more than one country, so the people who invest in Somali enclaves in Kenya, South Africa and Dubai also invest in Businesses in Somalia/Somaliland and Ogaden

1735158941518.png



If there is something that prevents them it isn't lack of trust but political stability in the country.

I remember this article of a Somali owned Engineering firm in Dubai stating that they wanted to bring it to Somalia but was waiting for the country's situation to stabilize itself.

Engineering design firm wants to ‘bring Dubai to Africa’​

www.howwemadeitinafrica.com

Engineering design firm wants to ‘bring Dubai to Africa’

A leading UAE-based architectural and engineering design consultancy talks about setting up shop in Africa to explore new opportunities on the continent.
www.howwemadeitinafrica.com www.howwemadeitinafrica.com
We have some work in the pipeline in Somalia as well [and are] waiting for the country’s situation to stabilise.
Click to expand...

If lack of trust was a major issue, how would we form successful corporate businesses in other African countries and UAE to begin with , when we don't even trust eachother or extort eachother? Why do we employ other Somalis?

What they are doing is replecating and relocating something that began in Somalia, hence why researchers call it ''Somali East Africa''

South Africans, Ugandans and Kenyans don't trust eachother at all, like we do. That's why they fail in business.
 
Last edited:
Thegoodshepherd

Thegoodshepherd

Galkacyo iyo Calula dhexdood
VIP
The alchemist said:
GDP is a lousy metric for success. But if we use it, it is theoretically possible to rise 10 times in GDP from 500 USD per capita within a decade from 20,000 USD to 30,000 USD. Or perhaps it is around equivalent.

And we haven't gotten the rapid GDP rise because key industries have not surfaced. If certain semi-coherent systems are set up, it could be 5 years of "miracles", then hypothetical stagnation or even cyclical variance, with a sharp uprise again.

We need macro-game theory parameters where sectors' output influences others' input. When that is not clearly defined, inefficiency in economic growth is almost completely diffusionist and cannot be channeled, behaving like entropy.

The Somali economy has always been unique in that it has been extremely flexible. There is a deep historical explanation for this. Issues arise with such a mode of participation in the modern nation-state model., i.e., a lack of competent guidance without boundary discipline; you cannot even define bare minimum policy measures that can be effective without the pre-requisite. Things are too unrefined, there is much more to tap into when certain formations set the stage to define gradual growth. I think it is going to be a stagnant rise with boom cycles, rather than a gradual increase model (plateau-like shifts). Things have to reach a certain stage first.

GDP narrows discrepancies between rural life and urban concentration. There are big problems with this. It does not speak to the urban potential in itself as the nexus for economic highlight, and it reduces the rural informal value-added gains. What I am saying is, for all those reasons, GDP captures more consistent value in any developed country, even developing countries such as Egypt, than Somalia or Somaliland. There is too much vigor that is uniquely untapped. Don't be surprised if the rigid measures suddenly skyrocket. We're going to see a potential inverse situation as Japan. They suddenly saw a bubble, we're going to suddenly stumble upon growth. Meaning that the incremental growth is extremely meaningful (it's rarely incremental on the ground). It serves a formational definition, not a gradual growth purpose, for it to shoot up. This is my perspective on this.

The cashflow systems in medium to small businesses have unstable credit and market risk assessment. We need more fine-tuning and that can only occur through comprehensive incremental patient systemic buildup. It doesn't even need to be perfect, just imperfect key pre-conditions. After that, you will see an unusual rise; an inverse bubble. There is a reason why Somalis had very low economic growth for a long time.
Click to expand...

Somalia can mobile the resources of its diaspora and bootstrap its development. We need dependable business law, courts that can fairly apply that law and security forces that can enforce judgments. If something like that were built in Puntland or Banadir etc.. the volume of investment that would arrive would be massive and would allow for very fast growth. You create that legal system, combined with transparent markets and you can jumpstart development.

Somalia should be exporting frozen lamb, beef, fish, goat and camel. There are huge profits to be made from, we know exactly what kind of infrastructure we need to do this, and we know we have the money. The barriers to Somali economic development are mostly political. Unfortunately we suck at politics and play a zero sum game there.

Somalia needs large publicly traded joint stock companies, but these companies only function if there is a legal system in place. Garacad's Wadaagsan skirts this by leveraging clan based trust. This kind of trust is unstable and does not scale.

Thankfully Somalis have a lot of respect for private property. Dahabshiil's business in Sool is open and so is Telesom although these are Somaliland companies. Instituting a property law system should not be so difficult in such a setting.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Trending

Latest posts

Top