Somalia Says No To Continued Ethiopian Presence Past 2024 And Quint Partners Concur

[Pastoralist]

View attachment 347199

Sxb Hassan wanted foreigners to stay after ATMIS. There was no rush on the offensive, he could have slowly gained power financially like he’s trying to do now, but he purposefully rushed the offensive which inexperienced heads of defence which lead to many Somali lives lost for little reason. He put the dumb timeframe of 5 months which all stakeholders criticized. Hassan is a puppet who will seek AUSSOM assistance past 2029. This was all to keep ATMIS troops within Somalia. Inshallah sharif comes out on top.

 

[Pastoralist]

look at all the ethiopian forces dont look like they leaving border regions anytime soon. this map confirms i been spitting facts

So they’ll probably stay in Somalia past December ?

 

[Sup]

I think the problem comes from people not realizing how big of a gap exists between subsharan african countires and the arab ones.
1) ethiopias economy after the currency devaluation has gone to about $100 billion dollars which i still think is somewhat higher than it really is. Whereas eygpts is $400 billion "offcialy but it's really much higher since their economy is a black box

2) eygpts elite is very much connected to the western elite and has been since the early 1800s when they got semi colonized by the British and French. You have lots of wealthy families in eygpt where these peoples have been going to elite western universities for multiple generations. Whereas in places like Ethiopia and the rest of africa. The elites only started getting a western education post 1960s there was no real educated class in the country before the late 70s or early 80s.

I wouldn’t say North Africans countries are exactly “better” than their Sub - Saharan counterparts. Although they too suffer from mass corruption and poverty, they are differently in a better position. Due to many factors involved, better leaders (somewhat I suppose) for example, Morocco for example gets billions of dollars of support from the EU, just to keep out Africans from using their territory to get to Europe.

Egypt on the other hand influence, come from the fact they are the guardians of the Suez Canal, the importance of that region is self explanatory I’m sure. And most importantly, for the protection of Israel. They receive billions of dollars in cold hard cash and military hardware, every year. Just so they don’t break the peace deal that was signed not too long ago. Hence why they have become an important geopolitical partner for the United States and the EU. I’m sure there’s many other factors involved. But in saying that, with all these financial and military contributions, their economy is a joke. I’d argue without these contributions, they’d be another Sudan, with no relevance whatsoever.

 

[Hilmaam]

Sxb Hassan wanted foreigners to stay after ATMIS. There was no rush on the offensive, he could have slowly gained power financially like he’s trying to do now, but he purposefully rushed the offensive which inexperienced heads of defence which lead to many Somali lives lost for little reason. He put the dumb timeframe of 5 months which all stakeholders criticized. Hassan is a puppet who will seek AUSSOM assistance past 2029. This was all to keep ATMIS troops within Somalia. Inshallah sharif comes out on top.

i dont know exact timeline but alot of the fighting started because clans in hirshabelle and Galmduug fighting back. He started empowering macwisley while same time having govt troops attack. He definitely caused al shabab pain and freed alot of land and took over bases from atmis. But al shabab to powerful to eliminate look at how much land they still have. Southwest state and jubbaland cooked basically the food center of the country and rivers occupied

Kenya and ethiopia each build buffer for their country borders. If HSM asked either to leave I dont think they will, to risky for them. Al shabab is like zombie virus that can infect people very quickly.

 

[Hilmaam]

article i got map from

Three’s a crowd: Why Egypt’s and Somalia’s row with Ethiopia can embolden al-Shabaab

Somalia’s new defence pact with Egypt has angered Ethiopia, undermining coalition efforts to contain al-Shabaab, a Jihadist group. European diplomats can help revert this dangerous path

ecfr.eu

 

[Pastoralist]

i dont know exact timeline but alot of the fighting started because clans in hirshabelle and Galmduug fighting back.

is this implication that he didn’t start the offensive, but rather it was pushed onto him ?

if so he’s forgiven. If not, just an all around terrible leader for his misjudgment.

 

[Hilmaam]

is this implication that he didn’t start the offensive, but rather it was pushed onto him ?

if so he’s forgiven. If not, just an all around terrible leader for his misjudgment.

HSM and somali clans in south got pushed to limit because al shabab was slaughtering them. Look what they did under farmajo when they killed 300 in 1 day during zobe explosion. under HSM they did similar bloody attacks as well. HSM and clans had to push back because its either attack al shabab on their turf or wait for them to come blow up capital.

this doucemnt does decent summary

Somalia Situation Update: September 2023 | The Government and al-Shabaab Vie for the Support of Clan Militias

acleddata.com

 

[Idilinaa]

Ethiopia will be removed because abiy is not the kind of guy to back down. He seems himself as the emperor of Ethiopia and has a god complex.
But also eygpt has far deeper ties and influence in the American govt than Ethiopia which how basically none. I mean the eygptians literally bribe American politicians and get away with it. They probably have several American politicans on their payroll.

My thoughts always go back to this, this was the most blatant bribery case i have seen yet and it was Egyptians bribing a senator. The guy literally came back from Egypt with his pockets stuffed with Gold bars

Egypt faces scrutiny in US after Senator Menendez’s bribery indictment

US lawmakers are demanding probe into allegations that Egypt was involved in bribery scheme with Senator Bob Menendez.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[RiceMuncher]

look at all the ethiopian forces dont look like they leaving border regions anytime soon. this map confirms i been spitting facts

Since when is Geriley FOB overrun by AS? And when did ATMIS leave Kismayo?

 

[Hilmaam]

Since when is Geriley FOB overrun by AS? And when did ATMIS leave Kismayo?

Al-Shabab Attacks Somali Base Handed Over by AU Forces

Officials say three soldiers, including two officers and a civilian, were killed in the attack by al-Shabab

www.voanews.com

 

[Zak12]

look at all the ethiopian forces dont look like they leaving border regions anytime soon. this map confirms i been spitting facts

Only the unauthorized ones aren't. ATMIS Ethiopian troops are leaving.

 

[RiceMuncher]

Al-Shabab Attacks Somali Base Handed Over by AU Forces

Officials say three soldiers, including two officers and a civilian, were killed in the attack by al-Shabab

www.voanews.com

View attachment 347211

Its closed according to you links

 

[Hilmaam]

Its closed according to you links

What’s closed?

 

[Hilmaam]

Only the unauthorized ones aren't. ATMIS Ethiopian troops are leaving.

it makes sense if that happens

 

[RiceMuncher]

What’s closed?

It says Serille is closed. I thought they meant Geriley

 

[Midas]

I wouldn’t say North Africans countries are exactly “better” than their Sub - Saharan counterparts. Although they too suffer from mass corruption and poverty, they are differently in a better position. Due to many factors involved, better leaders (somewhat I suppose) for example, Morocco for example gets billions of dollars of support from the EU, just to keep out Africans from using their territory to get to Europe.

Egypt on the other hand influence, come from the fact they are the guardians of the Suez Canal, the importance of that region is self explanatory I’m sure. And most importantly, for the protection of Israel. They receive billions of dollars in cold hard cash and military hardware, every year. Just so they don’t break the peace deal that was signed not too long ago. Hence why they have become an important geopolitical partner for the United States and the EU. I’m sure there’s many other factors involved. But in saying that, with all these financial and military contributions, their economy is a joke. I’d argue without these contributions, they’d be another Sudan, it's not that they are way better it's more that ssa is unique in

I wouldn’t say North Africans countries are exactly “better” than their Sub - Saharan counterparts. Although they too suffer from mass corruption and poverty, they are differently in a better position. Due to many factors involved, better leaders (somewhat I suppose) for example, Morocco for example gets billions of dollars of support from the EU, just to keep out Africans from using their territory to get to Europe.

Egypt on the other hand influence, come from the fact they are the guardians of the Suez Canal, the importance of that region is self explanatory I’m sure. And most importantly, for the protection of Israel. They receive billions of dollars in cold hard cash and military hardware, every year. Just so they don’t break the peace deal that was signed not too long ago. Hence why they have become an important geopolitical partner for the United States and the EU. I’m sure there’s many other factors involved. But in saying that, with all these financial and military contributions, their economy is a joke. I’d argue without these contributions, they’d be another Sudan, with no relevance whatsoever.

Nah eygpt would always be relevant it's thr largest Arab country. With the largest city in the arab world and has been one of the hearts of the Muslim world since the beginning. The salafi movment didn't begin in saudi arabia it began in eygpt in the early 20th century.

But to the main point about these countries being "better" it's not that there better it's that's sub sahran africa is behind the rest of the world. When it comes to institution building. Every country is ultimately ruled by it's elite class and the quality of them is what defines a country. Most anywhere you go in the world there was significant and cohesive class of elites who could read and write and had some form of administrative and bureaucrtic system which they governed with.

For example if I went most anywhere region in the world in the year 1800 (so right before colonization) and I asked them take me to your royal/government archives so I can understand the situation of your government . They would say "right this way it's down the hall" . Whereas in ssa they mainly didn't have writing so the idea of record keeping and the idea of an archive simply did not exist (with a few exceptions) . It's the same thing if I asked them take me to the royal/state library.

This meant that most of ssa had to play catch up and develop these institutions and societal knwoldege that other societies had developed several centuries ago. You can still see that today .

 

[Hilmaam]