Ethiopia has troops outside ATMIS in the country today in Jubbaland and hirshabelle their leaders already said Ethiopia should stay and FGS hasn't done anything to kick them out. I dont think HSM will pull off removing Ethiopia. Country to fragmented and he has to many people who distrust him
Ethiopia will demand buffer against al shabab. For all they know Egypt will purposefully spread chaos and give weapons to groups like al shabab to attack ethiopia. They can also support rebels inside country. I dont see this happening. If HSM pulls it off I will become one of his biggest supporters for life kkk
The FGS was specifically told not to remove the Ethiopian deployments.
I think one way this resolves is that AUSSOM is not approved and the ATMIS mandate is extended. There's a lack of interest in financing a new program under new UN rules too which might be the excuse, if there's no new mission there's no reason to finance it under the new rules.