It's two weeks since Somaliland rolled into the Puntland held town of Tukaraq in eastern Sool region. The town was apparently captured without much resistance. As it stands now, these are the facts:
Somaliland is still in possesion of the town. Their official position is that they will move to their so called eastern border which is a few kilometres from Garoowe. The time lines for this are not clear
Puntland has mobilised it's forces near the town. Their official position is that they will not only recapture the town, but the whole of Sool region . The time lines for this are not clear.
Khaatumo or whatever remains of it is clearly out of the picture and has not been heard of in this issue.
The local Dhulbahante, as usual, are divided and remain pawns of both administrations where they are represented politically and militarily. However, they have no decision making role in the issue despite the fact that the major combatants and casualties of any war in this region will be Dhulbahante, as they are well represented in the two administrations miltias, and represent the civilian population of the area.
The Somali Federal Government has no interest in this and have neither spoken about it or indicated what their official position is with regard to this issue, despite the fact that the Somali President was an hour's drive from the crime scene. I expect that this will remain so in the foreseeable future.
In this case therefore, what are the possible scenarios with regard to Tukaraq:
That the status quo remains and Somaliland establishes a new frontier in Eastern Sool. If this scenario prevails, there is nothing to stop Somaliland from moving to Yoocada, on the outskirts of Garoowe after some period.
That Puntland retakes Tukaraq and proceeds no further, thus restoring the earlier status quo.
That Puntland goes beyond Tukaraq and restores it's border at Lebida Gaatama, on the outskirts of Burco.
In the short term it looks like the regional power Ethiopia may prevail on Somaliland to exit Tukaraq and restore it to Puntland. In this way, the issues between Somaliland and Puntland remain perrenial and a source of future conflict. This is of course in line with Ethiopia ' s aim of keeping Somalis weak.
A more lasting solution would be to have a regional administration in Sool, Sanaag and Cayn under the Federal government. It is a path that has been tried before, but has not succeeded because both Somaliland and Puntland have been averse to this idea and the SFG has been reluctant to wade unto this issue. Somaliland has also had the backing of the international community in laying claim to this region and these actors have pressured the SFG and Puntland to keep off these areas.
However, in politics nothing remains constant. There are new realities now that may reshape the old order in Northern Somalia which basically recognised Somaliland and Puntland as the only legitimate entities in Northern Somalia, thus disenfranchising the Dhulbahante and Warsangeli clans who inhabit SSC:
The SFG, despite its major weaknesses, is slowly gaining strength, both politically and militarily. This of course diminishes the power and influence of the peripheries as time goes.
Puntland may not risk a war with Somaliland, given the divided loyalty of their kinsmen in SSC and the economic and human cost of any war.
Somaliland is breaking at the seams as there is a clear and growing divide between the western and sections of the eastern clans. They also do not enjoy a clear loyalty by most people in SSC. The economic and human cost of a war is the same as Puntland.
All Somalis are tired of conflict, a political settlement is preferable to bloodshed. A new regional administration in the north is a win win situation for all. The only tradeoff would be the creation of another regional entity in the south to balance the clan dynamics in Somalia.
Let me repeat, these are potential scenarios. Given that both Somali and regional and international actors prefer things to remain the way they are ( stagnation in other words), since this confers considerable benefits on them, I think that most probably a pre Somaliland invasion Tukaraq scenario and retention of that status quo will be the most likely scenario.
Which is sad, because we'll probably be having this same debate over the same issue for the next couple of decades.
Somaliland is still in possesion of the town. Their official position is that they will move to their so called eastern border which is a few kilometres from Garoowe. The time lines for this are not clear
Puntland has mobilised it's forces near the town. Their official position is that they will not only recapture the town, but the whole of Sool region . The time lines for this are not clear.
Khaatumo or whatever remains of it is clearly out of the picture and has not been heard of in this issue.
The local Dhulbahante, as usual, are divided and remain pawns of both administrations where they are represented politically and militarily. However, they have no decision making role in the issue despite the fact that the major combatants and casualties of any war in this region will be Dhulbahante, as they are well represented in the two administrations miltias, and represent the civilian population of the area.
The Somali Federal Government has no interest in this and have neither spoken about it or indicated what their official position is with regard to this issue, despite the fact that the Somali President was an hour's drive from the crime scene. I expect that this will remain so in the foreseeable future.
In this case therefore, what are the possible scenarios with regard to Tukaraq:
That the status quo remains and Somaliland establishes a new frontier in Eastern Sool. If this scenario prevails, there is nothing to stop Somaliland from moving to Yoocada, on the outskirts of Garoowe after some period.
That Puntland retakes Tukaraq and proceeds no further, thus restoring the earlier status quo.
That Puntland goes beyond Tukaraq and restores it's border at Lebida Gaatama, on the outskirts of Burco.
In the short term it looks like the regional power Ethiopia may prevail on Somaliland to exit Tukaraq and restore it to Puntland. In this way, the issues between Somaliland and Puntland remain perrenial and a source of future conflict. This is of course in line with Ethiopia ' s aim of keeping Somalis weak.
A more lasting solution would be to have a regional administration in Sool, Sanaag and Cayn under the Federal government. It is a path that has been tried before, but has not succeeded because both Somaliland and Puntland have been averse to this idea and the SFG has been reluctant to wade unto this issue. Somaliland has also had the backing of the international community in laying claim to this region and these actors have pressured the SFG and Puntland to keep off these areas.
However, in politics nothing remains constant. There are new realities now that may reshape the old order in Northern Somalia which basically recognised Somaliland and Puntland as the only legitimate entities in Northern Somalia, thus disenfranchising the Dhulbahante and Warsangeli clans who inhabit SSC:
The SFG, despite its major weaknesses, is slowly gaining strength, both politically and militarily. This of course diminishes the power and influence of the peripheries as time goes.
Puntland may not risk a war with Somaliland, given the divided loyalty of their kinsmen in SSC and the economic and human cost of any war.
Somaliland is breaking at the seams as there is a clear and growing divide between the western and sections of the eastern clans. They also do not enjoy a clear loyalty by most people in SSC. The economic and human cost of a war is the same as Puntland.
All Somalis are tired of conflict, a political settlement is preferable to bloodshed. A new regional administration in the north is a win win situation for all. The only tradeoff would be the creation of another regional entity in the south to balance the clan dynamics in Somalia.
Let me repeat, these are potential scenarios. Given that both Somali and regional and international actors prefer things to remain the way they are ( stagnation in other words), since this confers considerable benefits on them, I think that most probably a pre Somaliland invasion Tukaraq scenario and retention of that status quo will be the most likely scenario.
Which is sad, because we'll probably be having this same debate over the same issue for the next couple of decades.
