I seriously doubt there will be an all out war between the two. Both administrations are too poor to wage and sustain a war. As Napoleon said, the army marches on its stomach. It's all about logistics. Last year's drought in the Northern regions is still fresh in our minds and another one is looming as we speak. If you remember, both administrations struggled to mitigate the drought and its effects are still with us. If you can't feed the people, how can you feed the army?
Skirmishes, yes. These happen every so often between the various administrations or clans. There are numerous examples of this, and one is currently happening in Ceelafweyn. The minute the casualties exceed twenty, administrations, clan elders, and regional powers, in more serious cases ,intervene, we have the usual calls for peace and we are one people, we are Muslims,and the fighting subsides. Both sides declare victory, retreat to a safe corner and lick their wounds. Then the next round of skirmishes begin and the cycle begins again.
In the worst case scenario, this will happen in Tukaraq. In the best case scenario, Somaliland will retreat having scored a phyrric victory and show the world how peace loving they are and why Gambia should recognise them and Puntland will come back and man the customs house that looks like a pigsty and continue collecting their revenue.
Until the next cycle.
In the meantime, there is no effort on the part of anyone to seek a more durable solution.That's the real tragedy.