Sudan Conflict Updates: Army vs RSF

Nilotic

Nilotic

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JustSomeGuy said:
Aren't they your people? I remember you mentioning something about being from that region of Africa, surely? How do you personally feel about this unfortunate & horrifying conflict?
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The Nilotic tribes of Blue Nile State are closely related to my people -- with the only real difference being religion; and the Nuba are also closely related to South Sudanese and were our brothers in arms during the North-South war.

The indigenous tribes of Darfur are more distantly related to my people; these Nilo-Saharans are the only groups I relate to and sympathise with.
 
The alchemist

The alchemist

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RSF receives military infrastructure with financial support from the UAE. By putting pressure on the Emirates, their weighted influence can channel a ceasefire. A dirty compromise through promising protection for these war criminals to not face consequences is the only way they will consider ending things. The result of these hypothetical discussions is a state where these military and auxiliary forces are incorporated into the establishment.

Viewing the conflict realistically, all the clash is to draw leverage in a ceasefire discussion. Give me what I want, at least be nice to me, or I can keep the damage further. That's the sad reality. Death and destruction are the bread and butter for these people, making their propensity for turmoil a normalized business.

What regime emerges from these frankly best-scenario developments will not resemble any democratic setup in its systemic functions. An election-based cycle brings uncertainty into the long-term self-interested contracts the disputing groups want to form.

I won't be surprised if a distributive Sisi-type rule takes shape.

Any notion of "revolution" or fair reforms is unrealistic. If an out described above is presented, Sudan should take it. Otherwise, you can look at years of prolonged dispute, and if anyone wins, the results will end in a dictatorial government, anyway.

What's left is making the best choices out of all the bad.
 
Asaana

Asaana

The alchemist said:
RSF receives military infrastructure with financial support from the UAE. By putting pressure on the Emirates, their weighted influence can channel a ceasefire. A dirty compromise through promising protection for these war criminals to not face consequences is the only way they will consider ending things. The result of these hypothetical discussions is a state where these military and auxiliary forces are incorporated into the establishment.

Viewing the conflict realistically, all the clash is to draw leverage in a ceasefire discussion. Give me what I want, at least be nice to me, or I can keep the damage further. That's the sad reality. Death and destruction are the bread and butter for these people, making their propensity for turmoil a normalized business.

What regime emerges from these frankly best-scenario developments will not resemble any democratic setup in its systemic functions. An election-based cycle brings uncertainty into the long-term self-interested contracts the disputing groups want to form.

I won't be surprised if a distributive Sisi-type rule takes shape.

Any notion of "revolution" or fair reforms is unrealistic. If an out described above is presented, Sudan should take it. Otherwise, you can look at years of prolonged dispute, and if anyone wins, the results will end in a dictatorial government, anyway.

What's left is making the best choices out of all the bad.
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Talk of the devil:


Sudan will definitely come out of this with a dictatorship. It will be influenced by whoever finances reconstruction, which is why the UN, Turkey, and Arab countries are already talking about the rebuilding process. That's one of the many reasons why I and other Sudanis believe that this war was planned from within, as plenty of local elites stand to benefit from this.

From those that I interacted with (various tribes/regions and social classes), it seems like the majority Sudanis prefer a dictatorship over a democracy. Even those that were hardcore pro-democracy are now yearning for an authoritarian government, especially after years of anarchy and a civil war.
 
The alchemist

The alchemist

VIP
Asaana said:
Talk of the devil:


Sudan will definitely come out of this with a dictatorship. It will be influenced by whoever finances reconstruction, which is why the UN, Turkey, and Arab countries are already talking about the rebuilding process. That's one of the many reasons why I and other Sudanis believe that this war was planned from within, as plenty of local elites stand to benefit from this.

From those that I interacted with (various tribes/regions and social classes), it seems like the majority Sudanis prefer a dictatorship over a democracy. Even those that were hardcore pro-democracy are now yearning for an authoritarian government, especially after years of anarchy and a civil war.
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Indeed. Preemptive first-mover anxiety by elites at the end of the Al-Bashir rule was one of the big reasons fueling the tensions to seek a greater share of leadership and economic dominance. This includes the influential financial, political, and ethnic-tribal regional elites who had a section of the pie, with help from the broader instrumentalization of regional players.

The issue with democracy is that it is not truly a neutral project. For it to work, certain societies require a tremendous shift. The dirty secret is that shift is done through excessive violence when the mean social organization has an Overton window somewhere else entirely with different ground-based relational rules between traditional forces. When you have made that change, you still have the realities on the ground that threaten such a setup, so you have to take an authoritarian role, otherwise, you're removed quickly, leading toward a once-more regional de-stabilization -- case in point, Afewerki.

Introducing words of democracy and revolution is irresponsible in such a reality. Changes have to come from iteration in the social sphere, slowly. This ephemeral going to the street business does not lead to anything fruitful. For example, Egypt had a stable country for several decades with the previous dictator, Hosni Mubarak. An overturn took place. They got a democratically elected person who happened to be religious-leaning, which the higher classes did not want. These middle-class-and-up people started marching against a rightfully elected person to overthrow him at the cost of security, all to have the junta come in and take over. Now, the middle and above economic class demographic supports the dictator because Sisi happens to be more liberal. Out goes those superficial (yet pragmatic) slogans of freedom and democracy. Not to mention, the West is happy since Sisi plays things in their favor.

Revolution is appreciated in the West because the current paradigm is the victor of such change. It's a system validating itself. And revolution can be a way for the West to influence foreign powers when their interests are rejected. How many revolutions and coups did America incite in Latin America at the cost of the people there to meet their external objectives? The current leadership of Iran was supported by America when the Shah rejected exploitation by building a pipeline through the country. The Shah was ideologically closer to the West than the current regime.

In considerable observations, people choose self-interests above principles of values. But the language of principles of values comes into play as a mechanism to gain their self-interests.
 
Garaad Awal

Garaad Awal

War is coming.
Sudan is doomed.Neither side will achieve decisive quick victory and regain control of the entire country.It will continue to fragment with outside powers like the UAE,Egypt,Ethiopia,Russia & US looking to exploit
 
Khalumi

Khalumi

Sudan is my country of origin and always will be. I don’t enjoy seeing my country in so much pain but I know deep down that things needed to change. This war is probably the only thing that was left to make things right and it had to happen sooner or later.

I am proud of my Baggara people but extremely sad for the destruction of Sudan. It will be rebuilt InshaAllah under fair and equal terms.
 
Garaad Awal

Garaad Awal

War is coming.
Khalumi said:
Sudan is my country of origin and always will be. I don’t enjoy seeing my country in so much pain but I know deep down that things needed to change. This war is probably the only thing that was left to make things right and it had to happen sooner or later.

I am proud of my Baggara people but extremely sad for the destruction of Sudan. It will be rebuilt InshaAllah under fair and equal terms.
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Most Sudanese view Baggara as invading Chadians tbh
 
Khalumi

Khalumi

Garaad Awal said:
Most Sudanese view Baggara as invading Chadians tbh
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The same Sudanese that lost a half of their territory to South Sudan with 80% of the oil? The same Sudanese that were on the state sponsor of terrorism list for over 30 years loooool

We baggara exist in 4 or 5 different countries and we proud 🔥😉
 
Khalumi

Khalumi

Port Sudan going through a lot of shit 👀

IMG_8663.png


“Port Sudan, the northeast African country’s main seaport and the source of 90 per cent of its international trade, faces a looming health crisis as billions of flies infiltrate homes, offices and food supplies.

“This is the worst outbreak in Port Sudan in history,” Professor Ayman Ahmed of the Institute of Endemic Diseases, University of Khartoum, told the Telegraph. “The entire city is infested.”

The infestation has become so intense in Port Sudan that performing basic activities such as sitting, eating and working have become near impossible.

Pictures from the city show markets selling bread and tea covered in flies, while in video clips people can be seen batting swarms away in vain. “
 
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