The fast development of Ethiopia

[Midas]

Once they do a rebase like how they did in Ghana and Nigeria, it will surprise many.

In 2018/2020 it was estimated that there was 2.7 billion transaction a month which is essentially 32 billion a year.

https://downloads.unido.org/ot/21/18/21185699/1_UNIDO_MoCI%20Report%20Financial%20Sector_final.pdf

Just from that you can tell the 11 or 34 PPP billion stats sounds bonkers and we can even take it further and contrast and compare it to the mobile money markets of Kenya ($38 billion) and Ghana ($36 billion) in 2018, which are two of the most technological advanced countries in Africa and both with formal economies in the $150-200 billion range, then its clear that there is a lot more wealth in circulation in Somalia than what official stats show.

I explained it @Shimbiris recently and it's baffling because so much money is circulating while Somalia was experiencing decades long economic sanctions and embargos , the last of which have been opened up between 2020-2024.

Incredible $30 billion circulating a year but we somehow only have a gdp of 11? That's impossible. It honestly in hindsight makes a lot of sense. If you go to Kenya and you see nariobi it's a lot better than Mogadishu but it's not night and day. Which would make no sense if kenya actually had 10 times the gdp of Somalia. Amd if you see mombasa I wouldn't rate that much higher than bossaao. But this changes everything a gdp of $1300 per capita wouldn't be that shocking if they rebase it.

You know it's kinda funny that were having a discussion about the fact somalias real gdp might be double what it is on paper and ethiopias gdp is likely half of what it is on paper. Very ironic in a sense

 

[World]

I’m not pro-Greater Northeast Africa, it’s a very cringe idea honestly. I just don’t have hate blinders on for Ethiopia and try to look at things impartially without letting my internal biases get in the way. I simply believe that as Somalis, we should take every potential threat at face value. If Ethiopia is indeed growing at the pace its figures suggest, that’s a potentially catastrophic scenario for us, given our slow pace of recovery. The resources that disparity in GDP affords them compared to a Somalia whose military is still in its infancy and whose economy has not even begun to properly gain momentum, should concern every Somali. I feel like we’re in a “frog in boiling water” scenario when people talk about Ethiopia's and Kenya's progress.

Their domestic tax revenue was $3.9 billion in 23/24, and their fake GDP was $163 billion. Ethiopia is an outlier in terms of its tax revenue-to-GDP ratio. Its ratio of 2.39% is exceptionally low compared to both global and regional averages. For reference, Kenya's GDP in 23/24 was $107 billion with a tax revenue of $16.34 billion, giving them a ratio of 15.27 % which is inline of the African average. Uganda's tax revenue is $6.7 billion, much higher than Ethiopia despite having a $49 billion GDP.

 

[Maintainnnin]

Their domestic tax revenue was $3.9 billion in 23/24, and their fake GDP was $163 billion. Ethiopia is an outlier in terms of its tax revenue-to-GDP ratio. Its ratio of 2.39% is exceptionally low compared to both global and regional averages. For reference, Kenya's GDP in 23/24 was $107 billion with a tax revenue of $16.34 billion, giving them a ratio of 15.27 % which is inline of the African average. Uganda's tax revenue is $6.7 billion, much higher than Ethiopia despite having a $49 billion GDP.

Yeah, that's a pathetically low ratio, and it's been consistently dropping too. I assumed their economy was at least $100 billion, given that their trade volume is similar to Kenya's and almost double that of Uganda's. I’ve also read some of the conditions of the recent IMF bailout, and along with floating their currency, they’re expected to dramatically increase tax collection for the fiscal year 2024/25. They're aiming for $12.5 billion in tax revenue, but that's such a large jump 90% sure they won't even come close.

Honestly, the more I look into it, the less I believe they have a $50 billion over Kenya’s economy, it just doesn’t add up. I was taking the economic metrics at face value, assuming they’d be roughly in the same ballpark as reality but that's clearly not the case.

 

[World]

Yeah, that's a pathetically low ratio, and it's been consistently dropping too. I assumed their economy was at least $100 billion, given that their trade volume is similar to Kenya's and almost double that of Uganda's. I’ve also read some of the conditions of the recent IMF bailout, and along with floating their currency, they’re expected to dramatically increase tax collection for the fiscal year 2024/25. They're aiming for $12.5 billion in tax revenue, but that's such a large jump 90% sure they won't even come close.
View attachment 351941

Honestly, the more I look into it, the less I believe they have a $50 billion over Kenya’s economy, it just doesn’t add up. I was taking the economic metrics at face value, assuming they’d be roughly in the same ballpark as reality but that's clearly not the case.

The peak of Ethiopia's domestic revenue appears to have been in 2012, and it has been steadily declining since then. That's because 2012 was the year that Meles Zenawi, the TPLF chairman who ruled Ethiopia from 1991-2012 passed away. He was perhaps the smartest and greatest Ethiopian leader in history, and his death was a blessing for Somalia.

 

[Midas]

The peak of Ethiopia's domestic revenue appears to have been in 2012, and it has been steadily declining since then. That's because 2012 was the year that Meles Zenawi, the TPLF chairman who ruled Ethiopia from 1991-2012 passed away. He was perhaps the smartest and greatest Ethiopian leader in history, and his death was a blessing for Somalia.

People have no idea that one of the greatest blessings that we've received in the last 30 years is the death of meles zenawi. The guy was extermely shrewd and starting in 2003 he started the state led development growth model and began inviting all sorts of foerign economists to give him advice on what to do and these guys all sung his praises because of his effectiveness.

He was also able to keep all of Ethiopias ethnic tensions under control since he'd been in charge since 1991. He also was able to keep all of somalia wrapped around his finger since he was interfering since the beginning of somalias collapse. The level of influence Ethiopia used to have over somalia if you look at some of the documentaries from the 2000s is unreal.

 

[Idilinaa]

Incredible $30 billion circulating a year but we somehow only have a gdp of 11? That's impossible. It honestly in hindsight makes a lot of sense. If you go to Kenya and you see nariobi it's a lot better than Mogadishu but it's not night and day. Which would make no sense if kenya actually had 10 times the gdp of Somalia. Amd if you see mombasa I wouldn't rate that much higher than bossaao. But this changes everything a gdp of $1300 per capita wouldn't be that shocking if they rebase it.

You know it's kinda funny that were having a discussion about the fact somalias real gdp might be double what it is on paper and ethiopias gdp is likely half of what it is on paper. Very ironic in a sense

What's going to keep Kenya and Ethiopia back these next few years is debt as well. They already defaulted and huge chunk of the expenditure is going to go towards debt servicing instead of development, which will experience huge cuts in various sectors and even salaries like we are seeing now, its further compounded by the amount of money they have wasted on useless mega projects. Ethiopia has hit a historic low in devaluation, so even the wages they do get is not enough and things aren't affordable.

Somalia is basically free from that, so any revenue it generates that the government acquires from it will be available to go directly into development. Best case scenario.

 

[Midas]

What's going to keep Kenya and Ethiopia back these next few years is debt as well. They already defaulted and huge chunk of the expenditure is going to go towards debt servicing instead of development, which will experience huge cuts in various sectors and even salaries like we are seeing now, its further compounded by the amount of money they have wasted on useless mega projects. Ethiopia has hit a historic low in devaluation, so even the wages they do get is not enough and things aren't affordable.

Somalia is basically free from that, so any revenue it generates that the government acquires from it will be available to go directly into development. Best case scenario.

This honestly the only silver lining in our situation with this ridculous govt we have in charge. Who as of today have agreed to allow ethiopia to rejoin aumissom

 

[Idilinaa]

This honestly the only silver lining in our situation with this ridculous govt we have in charge. Who as of today have agreed to allow ethiopia to rejoin aumissom

They are treasonous traitors , simple as that. I rest my hope on 2025-2026 direct elections that we can remove them and replace them with real patriots that care about the country and it's citizens.

 

[Midas]

They are treasonous traitors , simple as that. I rest my hope on 2025-2026 direct elections that we can remove them and replace them with real patriots that care about the country and it's citizens.

The worst aspect of it all is the orwelleian double speak going on. For some reason they don't want fully admit they allowed ethiopia back into amisomm so they wont use plain language. Just look at the difference between the ethiopia and somalia offcial press release.

 

[Idilinaa]

The worst aspect of it all is the orwelleian double speak going on. For some reason they don't want fully admit they allowed ethiopia back into amisomm so they wont use plain language. Just look at the difference between the ethiopia and somalia offcial press release.

Most idiotic thing. How is ethiopia going to be part of peacekeeping mission in Somalia when they can't even sustain peace within their own borders let alone control areas outside Addis.

One of the main reasons they maintain a prescense inside Somalia port atmis is because they depend on the revenue that UN/US funds and at the same time ensure their meddling.

I thought at first it was clever of them to swop ethiopia for egypt. Why would they backtrack on that?

 

[Midas]

Most idiotic thing. How is ethiopia going to be part of peacekeeping mission in Somalia when they can't even sustain peace within their own borders let alone control areas outside Addis.

One of the main reasons they maintain a prescense inside Somalia port atmis is because they depend on the revenue that UN/US funds and at the same time ensure their meddling.

I thought at first it was clever of them to swop ethiopia for egypt. Why would they backtrack on that?

Yeah this is a slap on the face to eygpt there not gonna take this lying down. Also I doubt the u.s will bring back funding especially since Trump is taking over in like 3 weeks.

Also I heard from that somali cowboy tiktok guy. That hsm is being promised a Nobel peace prize like the one abiy got in 2018. I dont know how true this is but somali cowboy has never brought up info he wasn't sure about before.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

USDA’s estimated MY 2023/24 wheat area is approximately the same as the previous two years. Satellite imagery analysis by USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service and several other researchers indicated that irrigated wheat area did not increase by two million hectares as claimed by Ethiopia’s Ministry of Agriculture.

https://downloads.usda.library.corn.../5q47rn72z/tm70pd08x/n5840d235/production.pdf

 

[Idilinaa]

Yeah this is a slap on the face to eygpt there not gonna take this lying down. Also I doubt the u.s will bring back funding especially since Trump is taking over in like 3 weeks.

Also I heard from that somali cowboy tiktok guy. That hsm is being promised a Nobel peace prize like the one abiy got in 2018. I dont know how true this is but somali cowboy has never brought up info he wasn't sure about before.

It's also slap to Eritrea, it makes the whole Red Sea Alliance a meaningless PR stunt.

Why would they give him the Nobel peace prize?

 

[Midas]

It's also slap to Eritrea, it makes the whole Red Sea Alliance a meaningless PR stunt.

Why would they give him the Nobel peace prize?

I think the reasoning is that him making peace with ethiopia? Although the logic doesn't seem sound but it's such a strange claim to make that I don't think he would have said it unless somebody had some inside info.

 

[X29]

Most idiotic thing. How is ethiopia going to be part of peacekeeping mission in Somalia when they can't even sustain peace within their own borders let alone control areas outside Addis.

One of the main reasons they maintain a prescense inside Somalia port atmis is because they depend on the revenue that UN/US funds and at the same time ensure their meddling.

I thought at first it was clever of them to swop ethiopia for egypt. Why would they backtrack on that?

They need hard currency the economy in Ethiopia is abysmal

 

[Idilinaa]

Despite the fact that the Ethiopian economy is not doing to well, at least Ogaden is on the come up.


It will benefit Somalia economically because what they are doing by developing the Garacad port and the road which is meant to be a gateway, it will make central Somalia transit/import point to agricultural and manufacturing products from Ogaden and the same with Somalis living between Garacad-Galkacyo-Galgadob who are mainly farmers providing them with an outlet to distribute their produce to other regions and export of goods and products going to Central Somalia and Eastern Ethiopia.

Garacad Seaport

dekadagaracad.com

Construction of Gara’ad port project envisages to be a marine gateway that connects Central Somali and Eastern Ethiopian business community to the rest of the world trade.

AFRICA/SOMALIA - From the port of Garacad a road that brings development and hope to the entire area

Garowe (Agenzia Fides) - There is recent news of an important road project launched in Somali Puntla

www.fides.org

The port of Garacad, in the Modug region, borders Ethiopia to the west and the Somali regions to the north and south, and is a development point for the whole area. The Garacad-Galkacyo-Galdogob corridor crosses an area inhabited by about 1,000,000 Somalis, most of them farmers in an area under development

The study of the 309 km that will connect the cities is carried out by the Puntland Highway Authority, the government body responsible for road transport and infrastructure in the state of Puntland in Somalia, and sees the participation of the KAAD Institute and foreign engineers and will allow transport goods arriving in the port of Garacad as far as Ethiopia. (GF/AP) (Agenzia Fides, 8/9/2022)

 

[Midas]

Despite the fact that the Ethiopian economy is not doing to well, at least Ogaden is on the come up.


It will benefit Somalia economically because what they are doing by developing the Garacad port and the road which is meant to be a gateway, it will make central Somalia transit/import point to agricultural and manufacturing products from Ogaden and the same with Somalis living between Garacad-Galkacyo-Galgadob who are mainly farmers providing them with an outlet to distribute their produce to other regions.

Garacad Seaport

dekadagaracad.com

AFRICA/SOMALIA - From the port of Garacad a road that brings development and hope to the entire area

Garowe (Agenzia Fides) - There is recent news of an important road project launched in Somali Puntla

www.fides.org

This will be incredibly beneficial since it will create opportunities in mudug and they'll stop killing each over land disputes. Plus there's no major port on the northern part somalia's Indian ocean coast.

 

[Idilinaa]

This will be incredibly beneficial since it will create opportunities in mudug and they'll stop killing each over land disputes. Plus there's no major port on the northern part somalia's Indian ocean coast.

Noticed that area is a hotspot over dispute over resources and provisions. This is meant to be an attempt to enhance food security in the whole Federation and facilitate import of food supplies.

Mudug is the most fertile land in northern central region and the farmers have been experiencing flooding,locusts etc

Garacad will be the first deep water port in the general area and is expected to provide many more oppurtunities for local communities. There are only 4 other deep water ports Mogadishu, Berbera, Kismayo and Bosasso

Stage 1 of the port was completed and it was funded by the regional government and private local investors.

 

[Inquisitive_]

Our private sector takes the initiative to do things and are self-reliant because they have no choice but to be, we barely have a functioning state. Just look at what Somali entrepreneurs are doing across East Africa. Hass Petroleum is a multi billion dollar Somali company that's based in Kenya.



Uganda uses Somali investors to build factories that can't be financed in Somalia due to our pathetic governments incompetency.



Other countries are taking advantage of our peoples enterprising spirit and business acumen while in Somalia all of our businesses have to operate with one hand tied behind their backs because of our lack of effective governance.

You can't build factories in Somalia even there was total peace due to the cost of Energy.

Somalia has the highest cost anywhere in the world its around $1 per KWh, Uganda in comparison is $0.123 per kWh FOR BUSINESS

We still use diesel generators, we never had a national power grid, nor did we ever have the money or will to build this.

Country	Average Electricity Cost (USD per kWh)
Cabo Verde	0.31
Kenya	0.22
Mali	0.22
Burkina Faso	0.21
Togo	0.20
Uganda	0.19
Benin	0.17
Rwanda	0.17
Senegal	0.17
Ghana	0.16
Namibia	0.15
South Africa	0.14
Zimbabwe	0.14
Angola	0.13
Somalia	0.50–1.25
Nigeria	0.06
Egypt	0.05
Algeria	0.04
Sudan	0.04
Libya	0.004
Ethiopia	0.01

Ethiopia is the lowest after Libya, 90% Hydropower in Ethiopia and the rest Wind, as for Libya its all Oil and Natural Gas which they have in abundance.

Germany is a power house in Europe because of cheap Russian Gas which has now come to an end due to internal suicide, they were able to manufacture at cheaper prices then other European countries.

We have no other choice but Solar/Wind and my concern with both of them is that it's not proven or reliable e.g. no country in the world produces the majority of their energy using those two, China has the highest and it makes up just 3.5% of their total output.

That's still enough to power Somalia 15000x which is crazy, but the cost of the panels, and even worse lithium battery storage, and maintenance is astronomical, totally reliant on China for your energy not smart business unless you can manufacture them yourself.

Our coal reserves are non existent, so we either discover Oil or Gas, or its going to be bust for us.

 

[Zak12]

large Solar/Wind farms

Solar/wind power is a meme. It doesn't provide enough energy and can be wildely inconsistent due to how it works. There is a reason why conventional energy sources like hydropower and fossil fuels are used the most. Somalia needs to construct dams and establish oil rigs to make it happen. High energy costs are simply due to lack of infastructure and poor regulation from the government, it can easily be solved when Somalia becomes stable and the government starts enacting energy policies.

Solar and wind can still be used to power homes and such but it cannot sustain entire industries.