Am not really sure this is will happen. In the west there is rise in right wing racist and anti immigrant sentiment. I predict that a lot of Somali diaspora will leave the west to either Somalia, Kenya and Middle East.
The fertility rate of Somali 1.5 and 2. generation Somalis is 2
- Thread starter AraragiKoyomi
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Two educated, working parents, with one or two children is the ideal situation for the Somali diaspora. I’m seeing this a lot with the new generation. If Somalia does a Vietnamese style economic resurgence in the next 10 years or becomes the African Oman down the line, then that’s a couple of billions less in remittances that no longer need to be sent back to the country and could be utilised by diaspora Somali families to buy better homes, start businesses and get their kids the best education. We’ll have a smaller but a much wealthier, educated and politically active diaspora.
If these diaspora communities melt away in the next 100 years, who cares, 100 years ago these communities didn’t even exist. Besides, the Somali population in Greater Somalia itself would be 75 million to 100 million by then.
If these diaspora communities melt away in the next 100 years, who cares, 100 years ago these communities didn’t even exist. Besides, the Somali population in Greater Somalia itself would be 75 million to 100 million by then.
Sxb this isnt about married women only. You measure fertility rate, by looking at how many kids women who physically capable of having kids have and that is 2. So if you are saying that maried women have more than 2, there are still many women who arent married or have kids yet you have to consider when calculating the TFR.
Women in average should have more than 2.1 kids otherwise that is under replacement level, meaning that the Somali population will shrink.
TFR in a diaspora context is just silly, especially when there is a giant landmass in Africa populated with the same people that have the highest fertility rate in the world. Only in Greater Somalia should TFR be an important metric for the future prospects of the Somali people. A well educated, wealthy and politically active Somali diaspora in the 2050s with either a shortage of Somali males or females could always return to the homeland to hitch with a fellow Somali. The Asian diaspora communities have been doing that for ages, and the Chinatowns and Koreatowns are still thriving alongside their original countries.
Below replacement level shrinks a population. To sustain a population you need at least 2.1.
The western economic model is based on consumerism, if there are no consumers(young people) our economic model will not work.
Having a below replacement fertility rate also means that it will shrink the workforce.
Thus the western countries have to fight over young immigrants and immigration isnt a permanent solution, because the immigrants will also adapt and have less kids.
So high life expectancy
A shrinking population
Means that the few young workers have to sustain the old unproductive majority. This will lead to high tax rates and working longer hours. This is exactly what is already happening in some countries. Greece just introduced a 6 day work week from the normal 5 day work week.
And the end result when young people cant afford a living, taxed a lot and working more hours, will lead to young people migrating out. So imagine a society with only old dying people. What do you think will happen?
Thats an interesting point. Its just that its very depressing barely seeing any Somali children and all the young ones grew up. Shit is depressing and it brights my day when I see Somalis. Not seeing any makes me feel like a lone wolf.
They are all in after school tuition. The less you see them, the better. It means they are either at school, home or doing something productive, with parents that keep them busy and off the street. It’s the previous generation that still hang around betting shops like lamp-posts that are truly a depressing sight.
Vast majority of somali women get married and when they do, they have atleast 2-3 kids. I think whats going on is that TFR counts women/girls aged 15-49 and the 15-25 age group dwarfs the rest and these women are not yet married.
And from this 15-25 age group, 15-20 age range dwarfs the 20-25 range. You can see what I mean.
how did you come to this conclusion? I mean I do get the wealthier part but having less kids far outweighs the good. 3-5 kids is good.
The 1.5 generation who were born in Somalia but grew up in the west are in their early 30s by now and according to the report
"For example, in Somalia the fertility rate is about seven. In Norway, Somalian women in generation 1.5 or 2 gave birth to about two children."
- the report
"The term 1.5 generation or 1.5G, although not widely used, refers to first-generation immigrants who immigrated to the new country before or during their early teens, ages 5-13."
- wiki
And this research was conducted in Norway but I do believe its a solid reflection of all the other places in the west Somalis live.
I think the cause of this is liberalism, but liberalism in general.
Second wave feminism to be more specific. 50s 60s western model is best for Somalia. High birthrates, cheap housing and good quality of life. The boomers were eating good in the west.
Yeah like 10 years ago
I think the rate hasnt changed. Somali culture isnt that compatible with other cultures
I think it has for both genders. It’s inevitable since we live in the west
lots of stuff needs to happen before that, Somalia has nothing, no development no nothing its so infurating and sad. What is actually wrong? Im not even kidding but every single other africa country, regardless of what level their at. At least they have some sort of development like roads and proper downtown and national roads
Dalac Bilaash
☠ Emperor of The Horn ☠
If only that fertility rate happened back home we wouldn't have suffered
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