Things are getting spicy in Amhara region

[Yazir]

Don't forget that ENDF are severely weakened after the war. Many of their best soldiers perished or defected. Despite the massive support from Eritrea/EDF and Amharas/FANO, they could not even win the war.

Imagine ENDF without EDF and FANO? Tigrayans will most likely remain neutral. OLA are taking advantage of the weakened army to make gains and increase support.

Amharas may have an opportunity to turn the country to the brink of collapse.

Amhara are on their survival mode so they will do whatever it takes to take abiy down, imagine 5 miillion of your race evicted out there settlements, they tried to occupy occupy others lands and get the teste of their own medicine

Karma never fairer

 

[GaradShabeel]

How is abiy a lesser evil than amhara

Issa alone lost a land area equal to the Belgium with all its farms, towns, wells grazing lands and natural resources within just 5 years, Somalis in ethiopia are having it much harder than any ughur or falastiini under abiys rule, so its oxymoronic for me saying abiy is lesser evil than anyone

That's why I said that choosing between them is like picking between a rock and hard place Both Amharas and Abiy believe in centralization, their core ideology, but Amharas want to take it further with their Amharization policies. It's the very same reason Somalis, Tigrayans and Oromos see Amhara-ruled Ethiopia as a 'threat' to everyone in Ethiopia.

Regarding the land Cisse lost, that has more to do with ENDF, aka the establishment. They'll collaborate with however they deem to execute their interests best, irrespective of who's in charge in Addis. Afars are allied and more loyal to Ethiopia than Somalis are. Nothing surprising.

After TPLF-rule I was hesitant to Tigrayan rule again, but after the war, they seem to want an Ethiopia that resembles a confederal state (since their quest of secession won't be accepted by IC), something I support. Oromos want federalism with Oromo domination of the country at the same time. Not really ideal. But both of them are much better than Amharas/Abiy (Oromo in Amhara sheep clothes, lol).

 

[Yazir]

Seems FANO captured the capital of amhara, not a good news for the central government

I am sure ato abiy is in a big trouble, imagine running a country where signing a peace deal with one means an all out war for another

 

[GaradShabeel]

The map was last updated yesterday. Western Tigray is in the control of Amharas and Eritrea.

 

[GaradShabeel]

Gondar and (soon) Bahar Dar being captured within a day

 

[Cartan Boos]

 

[Heavy Mountains]

Amharas may have an opportunity to turn the country to the brink of collapse.

true i think there will be more increased ethnic tensions

right now, if you check social media. Lots of Amhara are still pro Ethiopia and are saying that FANO is fighting against Abiy's Oromo fascism

 

[GaradShabeel]

true i think there will be more increased ethnic tensions

right now, if you check social media. Lots of Amhara are still pro Ethiopia and are saying that FANO is fighting against Abiy's Oromo fascism

I'm not sure if I agree with last viewpoint. Amharas may be the most pro-Ethiopia of all ethnicities, but post-TPLF they've been all about their own interests.

Tbh, it's misleading to claim that they fought with the gov't to preserve the unity of the country in the Tigray war. Ever since they 'lost' (as they claim) Welkait and Raya, they've been on a mission to incorporate it to the Amhara region.

Prior to the Tigray war, they supposedly agreed with Abiy to participate in return for taking control of western Tigray and subsequently formally annexing to the Amhara region. This is the only reason FANO and other Amhara forces fought in Tigray. Remember how they limited themselves to western Tigray, i.e. to achieve their own interest. You may have also heard of them increasingly talking about aspirations of Addis being part of the Amhara region. Again Amhara interest.

Right now, aside from their issues with Abiy increasing Oromo influence in the gov't, the focal point remains that Abiy has not fulfilled his 'duty' of executing annexation as Amhara wished. With the disarming attempt of FANO, they viewed this as Abiy colluding with Tigrayans to do a u-turn on the western Tigray question. After all, disarming would render them powerless. This is the most decisive factor for the current 'Amhara struggle'.

 

[Heavy Mountains]

I'm not sure if I agree with last viewpoint. Amharas may be the most pro-Ethiopia of all ethnicities, but post-TPLF they've been all about their own interests.

Tbh, it's misleading to claim that they fought with the gov't to preserve the unity of the country in the Tigray war. Ever since they 'lost' (as they claim) Welkait and Raya, they've been on a mission to incorporate it to the Amhara region.

Prior to the Tigray war, they supposedly agreed with Abiy to participate in return for taking control of western Tigray and subsequently formally annexing to the Amhara region. This is the only reason FANO and other Amhara forces fought in Tigray. Remember how they limited themselves to western Tigray, i.e. to achieve their own interest. You may have also heard of them increasingly talking about aspirations of Addis being part of the Amhara region. Again Amhara interest.

Right now, aside from their issues with Abiy increasing Oromo influence in the gov't, the focal point remains that Abiy has not fulfilled his 'duty' of executing annexation as Amhara wished. With the disarming attempt of FANO, they viewed this as Abiy colluding with Tigrayans to do a u-turn on the western Tigray question. After all, disarming would render them powerless. This is the most decisive factor for the current 'Amhara struggle'.

Maybe Amhara diaspora might differ from the natives and FANO because diaspora amharas on Twitter are still supporting the idea of one Ethiopia and are claiming they're fighting against Oromofascism.

tho their idea of Ethiopianism is against ethnic federalism and ethnic identity.

for example these are some of the vocal amhara accounts on twitter.

 

[Burqad]

Maybe Amhara diaspora might differ from the natives and FANO because diaspora amharas on Twitter are still supporting the idea of one Ethiopia and are claiming they're fighting against Oromofascism.

tho their idea of Ethiopianism is against ethnic federalism and ethnic identity.

for example these are some of the vocal amhara accounts on twitter.

View attachment 286344

View attachment 286346

View attachment 286345

Ethiopian= Amhara.

It was true in the 1960’s and 1970s and it was true now. When Tadesse Biru staged a coup all the Amharas called it “tribalist”, when the two mingustus (Neway and Haile Maryam) staged their coups it was “Nationalist”, because they were Shewan Amharas. When Bale and Eritrea rose up they were “tribalists”, when Gojjam rebelled they were “freedom fighters”.

They have a cuunsuri bone in their brain that makes their eyes bulge out.

 

[Craftman10]

I think Abiy is finish this time, no Eritrea to help him , ENDF is weak asf which isn't a surprise and Fano/Amharas are armed to the teeth well-motivated and getting closer to Addis day after day.

I'm not sure even if Oromos are ready to die defending his regime, they will most likely barricade themselves in their regions and defend their towns.

We may be on the verge of a regime change in Ethiopia, but what impact this will have, especially for the Somali region, remains to be seen.

 

[Burqad]

I think Abiy is finish this time, no Eritrea to help him , ENDF is weak asf which isn't a surprise and Fano/Amharas are armed to the teeth well-motivated and getting closer to Addis day after day.

I'm not sure even if Oromos are ready to die defending his regime, they will most likely barricade themselves in their regions and defend their towns.

We may be on the verge of a regime change in Ethiopia, but what impact this will have, especially for the Somali region, remains to be seen.

People always say that but #nothinghappens

 

[Asaana]

I think Abiy is finish this time, no Eritrea to help him , ENDF is weak asf which isn't a surprise and Fano/Amharas are armed to the teeth well-motivated and getting closer to Addis day after day.

I'm not sure even if Oromos are ready to die defending his regime, they will most likely barricade themselves in their regions and defend their towns.

We may be on the verge of a regime change in Ethiopia, but what impact this will have, especially for the Somali region, remains to be seen.

Oromos will defend him if it’s Amharas trying to overthrow the regime. Abiy is a US puppet that was sent to destabilize Ethiopia.

 

[waffl3r]

How is abiy a lesser evil than amhara

Issa alone lost a land area equal to the Belgium with all its farms, towns, wells grazing lands and natural resources within just 5 years, Somalis in ethiopia are having it much harder than any ughur or falastiini under abiys rule, so its oxymoronic for me saying abiy is lesser evil than anyone

Did they lose it to afars?

 

[waffl3r]

I think Abiy is finish this time, no Eritrea to help him , ENDF is weak asf which isn't a surprise and Fano/Amharas are armed to the teeth well-motivated and getting closer to Addis day after day.

I'm not sure even if Oromos are ready to die defending his regime, they will most likely barricade themselves in their regions and defend their towns.

We may be on the verge of a regime change in Ethiopia, but what impact this will have, especially for the Somali region, remains to be seen.

Spoiler

You don't have permission to view the spoiler content. Log in or register now.

 

[Craftman10]

Spoiler

You don't have permission to view the spoiler content. Log in or register now.

it seems obvious to me that the ENDF Oromo soldiers are unwilling to fight in the Amhara region, they really don't care as long as it's not their region.

Add to this the fact that Amhara officers and soldiers, both in the police and the ENDF, have defected and rallied to their FANO brothers and you'll understand why the whole Amhara region is in their hands.

Definitely interesting time ahead of us, Abiy seems cornered and doesn't have the resources and the international support he had when TPLF was threatening Addis-Ababa last year.

 

[Wild daisy 💐🌻💮]

They are so close to adis adaba I wonder what going to happen once they capture the capital city

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

@Abba Sadacha
Let us ask our resident Oromo, what is the likelihood of Adis being run over?

 

[Abba Sadacha]

@Abba Sadacha
Let us ask our resident Oromo, what is the likelihood of Adis being run over?

It's possible, you never know, but the bad part starts after that... because what is bound to occur when they try to expand into other regions? without having allies in those regions, especially in Oromia? OLA's ranks will swell and then we may see a major war. remember, when tplf, despite having the superior military, expanded outside of its region during the war against mengistu, they had to build alliances throughout the country prior to conquering the capital.

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

It's possible, you never know, but the bad part starts after that... because what is bound to occur when they try to expand into other regions? without having allies in those regions, especially in Oromia? OLA's ranks will swell and then we may see a major war. remember, when tplf, despite having the superior military, expanded outside of its region during the war against mengistu, they had to build alliances throughout the country prior to conquering the capital.

Is Abiy popular amongst Oromo? Is the OLA leadership canny enough to forge coalitions with other ethnicities to bring about a bloodless, or least bloody transformation?