Things are getting spicy in Amhara region

[GemState]

This is sheer lunacy; why can't African Countries maintain some semblance of peace and order?

I can't speak for other countries, but in the case of Ethiopia, there're no genuine will from the top leaders to ensure long term peace and stability, at least not in practice that doesn't contradict with their promises. Everyone in Addis want to rule without consideration of its people, which result in people revolting just to have their voice heard. Not as a first choice, but when peaceful demonstrations are limited/prohibited/answered with bullets, people turn to taking up arms.

Just look at the past 30 years, the four largest ethnic groups in Ethiopia have been involved in some form of conflict with the state, even lasting decades: Oromos, Tigrayans, Somalis and Amharas. The gov't always talks about creating a national dialogue to solve issues through mutual understanding, but it never materializes because it goes against their own interest. The same cycle continues over and over again, with no end date.

Until they respect the people they're supposed to represent, which can also happen without 'democracy', it will never lead to permanent peace. Some militant groups will also take advantage of these instability to push their own agenda, but overall most people just want peace.

Ethiopia is a failed nation-state, it failed the moment Oromos started becoming ethnically and linguistically conscious and becoming more Protestant/Muslim because this meant that assimilating them into the Orthodox/Habesha core became impossible. Amharas are starting to see this and will try to leave. Ethnic federalism just put the nail in the coffin, we're just waiting to see how longs this drags on before it totally implodes.

There is 0 trust in Ethiopia and the rest of Africa for other ethnic groups within the same country. Impossible to get anywhere if most the country doesn't even feel they have a common destiny. There's a good book on this topic which really opened my eyes on this. Only those societies with a high degree of social trust will be able to create the flexible, large-scale business organizations that are needed to compete and thrive in the modern world, and it will largely be the same socieites and people's that dominated in the past (East Asia/West)

 

[GaradShabeel]

The regional gov't of the Amhara state is one the verge of loosing control of the region

 

[Heavy Mountains]

The regional gov't of the Amhara state is one the verge of loosing control of the region

 

[GaradShabeel]

This can't be true

I can't believe that we're heading for a round two of the Tigray war, but in the Amhara region now. Well, FANO + Amhara militias are nothing compared to the once powerful TPLF, but considering how OLA is still 'fighting' the state, this country is repeating the previous disastrous war.

If Tigrayans, Amharas and Oromos manage to come to a collective agreement on their issues (unlikely, but hypothetically), it's done for this gov't. Let's see how they manage to maneuver their obstacles.

 

[GaradShabeel]

I can't believe that we're heading for a round two of the Tigray war, but in the Amhara region now. Well, FANO + Amhara militias are nothing compared to the once powerful TPLF, but considering how OLA is still 'fighting' the state, this country is headed for a disaster.

If Tigrayans, Amharas and Oromos manage to come to a collective agreement on their issues (unlikely, but hypothetically), it's done for this gov't. Let's see how they manage to maneuver their obstacles.

Confirmed by state media

 

[GaradShabeel]

 

[El Nino]

@GaradShabeel

Are the amharas armed enough to resist the ENDF, they certainly have the manpower but do they have the heavy weapons. Their liyuu forces supposedly have 1 million, taming even 10% of these guys will be bloody and reckless.

 

[GaradShabeel]

@GaradShabeel

Are the amharas armed enough to resist the ENDF, they certainly have the manpower but do they have the heavy weapons. Their liyuu forces supposedly have 1 million, taming even 10% of these guys will be bloody and reckless.

I'm not sure if they will last if it's FANO by themselves against ENDF. They don't have a manpower of 1 million, that's a gross overestimation. Also, along with the recent disarming campaign, quite a few Amaharas have been disarmed.

However, they do have good ties with Eritrea. Both of them still maintain presence in the Tigray region. Eritrea and Ethiopia aren't on the best of terms and Eritrea didn't like the condition in the Tigray war peace agreement. If Eritrea decides to throw their support being FANO, albeit unlikely, it's over for ENDF. The war has caused a lot of casualties for ENDF, in the 100s of thousands, which is why they are somewhat hesitant to initiate any action that may start an all out war again.

Just like the in Tigray, at the beginning of the war, TPLF managed to rally Tigrayans behind their support. Most Amharas seem to be on the same path with FANO and ready to die for their cause and thus easily recruit Amharas civilians.

ENDF don't have the capabilities of defeating any rebels by themselves. OLA have been engaged in low intense conflict since forever and they control some territory today, even close to Addis.

This FANO conflict will most likely end with a stalemate. These rebels knows how to infiltrate civilian areas, which takes a lot of casualties for ENDF to uproot them and at the same time don't guarantee success. Mountains area will also be an advantage for them. All in all, FANO may resist for some time, but ultimately, they'll need to move on through negotiation. Which is what the Amhara reg'l gov't is proposing now.

 

[World]

Ethiopia is a failed nation-state, it failed the moment Oromos started becoming ethnically and linguistically conscious and becoming more Protestant/Muslim because this meant that assimilating them into the Orthodox/Habesha core became impossible. Amharas are starting to see this and will try to leave. Ethnic federalism just put the nail in the coffin, we're just waiting to see how longs this drags on before it totally implodes.

There is 0 trust in Ethiopia and the rest of Africa for other ethnic groups within the same country. Impossible to get anywhere if most the country doesn't even feel they have a common destiny. There's a good book on this topic which really opened my eyes on this. Only those societies with a high degree of social trust will be able to create the flexible, large-scale business organizations that are needed to compete and thrive in the modern world, and it will largely be the same socieites and people's that dominated in the past (East Asia/West)

Or perhaps dictatorships only work in high trust societies?

I don’t think Ethiopia would be a failed state if they were democratic.

 

[convincation]

Tigray war season 2, Amxaaro arc

 

[Nin123]

Tigray war season 2, Amxaaro arc

Am waiting the Oromo arc

 

[Heavy Mountains]

Not looking good for amhara region

Ethiopia declares state of emergency following clashes in Amhara

The announcement comes as fighting across Ethiopia’s second most populous region develops into a security crisis.

www.aljazeera.com

“It was found necessary to declare a state of emergency as it had become difficult to control this outrageous activity based on the regular legal system,” a statement by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s office said.

The state of emergency allows, among other things, for roadblocks to be established, transport services to be disrupted, curfews to be imposed, and for the military to take over in certain areas.

 

[GemState]

Not looking good for amhara region

Ethiopia declares state of emergency following clashes in Amhara

The announcement comes as fighting across Ethiopia’s second most populous region develops into a security crisis.

www.aljazeera.com

It's begun.

 

[Arkan]

With the conflict raging in Sudan and Eritrea keeping an eye out on their border, Xabashis will start flocking into the Somali Region and Northern Somalia

 

[GaradShabeel]

With the conflict raging in Sudan and Eritrea keeping an eye out on their border, Xabashis will start flocking into the Somali Region and Northern Somalia

If they conflict exacerbates, then it’s bound will happen.

Considering the Amhara-Oromo conflicts in Oromia and likewise with Benishangul-Gumuz, those two regions are out of the question. Unless the UN or some other NGO set up displacement camps that ensures their safety.

They’ll most likely then head to Afar, Dir Dhaba, DDS. Though if the gov’t start targeting civilians for sympathizing with FANO like they did with TPLF, then Djibouti/Somalia (SL) may become their main place of refuge.

 

[Arkan]

If they conflict exacerbates, then it’s bound will happen.

Considering the Amhara-Oromo conflicts in Oromia and likewise with Benishangul-Gumuz, those two regions are out of the question. Unless the UN or some other NGO set up displacement camps that ensures their safety.

They’ll most likely then head to Afar, Dir Dhaba, DDS. Though if the gov’t start targeting civilians for sympathizing with FANO like they did with TPLF, then Djibouti/Somalia (SL) may become their main place of refuge.

Tigray war caused 1.8million+ IDPs in Tigray region alone.

Imagine the IDPs this potential war could cause in Amhara region considering they've the second largest population in Ethiopia

 

[Arkan]

@GaradShabeel I've recently heard of Ethiopian IDPs and migrants causing trouble in Djibouti.

It ain't looking good for them to try and enter Djibouti. They've bolstered up the countries forces targeting them back in April

 

[GaradShabeel]

Tigray war caused 1.8million IDPs in Tigray region alone.

Imagine the IDPs this potential war could cause in Amhara region considering they've the second largest population in Ethiopia

Way dhmaatay. Our traditionally Somali land will no longer be exclusive Somali land. Hadda ka dib, dhulka Soomaaliyeed way nala wadaagi doonaan.

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[Avalanche]

Shit is going to get crazy this time

 

[GaradShabeel]

@GaradShabeel I've recently heard of Ethiopian IDPs and migrants causing trouble in Djibouti.

It ain't looking good for them to try and enter Djibouti. They've bolstered up the countries forces targeting them back in April

Djibouti does regular deportations of Ethiopians, so it won't matter if many of them end up going there, IOG will send them back home in droves. Not uncommonly to the Somali region