Far from true for a few reasons. One being that Somalia had the excuse of non governance and civil war from 1991-TNG. Then IC bought into this excuse and annually poured billions to create TNG, TFG, SFG and FMS and 14 years later they see that no progress is made. The UNSC had a meeting last year discussing that this never ending funding has become a zero sum game and they are looking at alternate unconventional routes in the region. 1999-2007 the world was less globalized and less connected. In a more globalized and connected world and ever growing importance of Africa and trade routes vis a vis the Gulf of Aden/Suez Canal, untapped resources, growing middle class in china/india leading to outsourcing to Africa, the game is changing very quickly. Right now is the most pivotal time in the region. IGAD is falling apart, The westerners biggest ally in the region(Ethiopia) will be in a never ending civil war, Somalia is...well Somalia, and it's at loggerheads with Kenya. Djbouti has become a sublet of Chinese dominance. Eritrea has dragged itself in the war as well, same with Sudan. Egypt is playing a role behind the scenes since it has the most to lose from a stable ethiopia GERD/Nile dispute. Point being, the standard of yesterday is not a constant. Somaliland is looking better and better as days past and we see that by the huge statements made by political elites in the western world and gravitation of politicians from Middle east and Africa.
Somaliland will not get recognition because every year that goes by, the share of Isaaq in the borders of former British Somaliland declines. Recognition happens in 2 ways in diverse countries and in homogenous countries.
In diverse countries, like South Sudan or Eritrea, recognition happens when the various ethnic groups are unanimous on separation from the original country. The Dinka and Nuer don’t agree on anything but they were unanimous on independence. The Tigray and Muslims agreed on separating from Ethiopia. This is why the referendums in South Sudan and Eritrea gained the support of over 97% of each country.
In relatively homogenous breakaway states, like Kosovo, where a single ethnic group has an overwhelming majority there is no need for consensus among the various ethnic groups. Ethnic Serbs in Kosovo oppose secession from Belgrade, but they don't matter because 93% of Kosovo is Albanian and support for secession among them is 100%.
Former British Somaliland is more like South Sudan or Eritrea rather than Kosovo. The Dinka are about 36% of South Sudan and the Tigray are about 50% of the population of Eritrea. The Isaaq, making up something between 55-60% of former British Somaliland's present day population, are more like the Dinka or Tigray rather than the Kosovo Albanians at 93%. This means that the support for secession in the territory of former British Somaliland needs to reach the level of consensus reached by Eritrea and South Sudan. Unanimous support for secession among the Isaaq simply will not cut it. There are not enough Isaaq to actually impose a functioning state if 40-45% of the population does not support it.
Keep in mind that Eritrea and South Sudan, states that had 99% and 98% support for secession, are now failed states. The International community will not recognize a state where support for secession is probably under 70% and where the largest ethnic group, the Isaaq, will drop from being a majority to a plurality over the next 10 years. No one has an appetite for another failed state in East Africa.
If the Isaaq were serious about secession, they should have based their claim on genocide and on the right to self-determination as a consequence of genocide. The mistake they made was that they claimed their right to secession was ultimately based on a civic identity of belonging to British Somaliland and on popular support. This sort of made sense 30 years ago when the Isaaq were 70% of the population and acting like Kosovo Albanians was possible. Has Somaliland built unanimity on secession over the past 30 years? It has not, and that failure is why it will never gain recognition.
