UK ambassador subtly recognises Somaliland.

[Wir]

Makes sense look how densely populated it is compared to sool and eastern sanaag

Its completely empty lands mate. That's why there are no cities. Every density and settlement map produces the same result. Their lands are deserted

 

[Wir]

I think that one of the reasons of why Somaliland is still not recognized is that there are no cut clear border between them and Somalia, which has changed numerous times over the years through conflicts. Somaliland still does not have all of their claimed territories under control and if they were to be recognized today, conflicts over the border such as between Puntland and Somaliland are likely to rise. Thus the International Community may rather leave the case for now than have such complexities arising. Another reason is that other African countries are worried that it will inspire other groups to seek independence in their own countries without the approval of the government so they are against recognizing Somaliland. In conclusion, gaining recognition without the approval of Somalia will be difficult.

This doesnt make sense. The borders are defined by law and legally the country of Somaliland law was registered in the UN in 1960 with the same borders it claims today. Puntlands claims of its borders have no precedent and by admission of it's own constitution Puntlands borders are the only borders on earth that are based on clan. The argument of Somaliland recognition giving rise to other African countries wanting recognition is false and was proven wrong when South Sudan was recognized. This argument was first introduced in the early 2000s and is outdated

 

[Macalin dheerow]

Somaliland better hurry up with recognition because when, not IF, southern Somalia becomes stable peacefully and al shabaab is eradicated I’A, union could look promising for somaliland especially for average lander. When Rest of Somalia is peaceful and invests in SL, thus gaining goodwill for union, it could be problematic for dreams of independence.

Independence won’t happen if somali government proves that they are viable option for the average somalilander. This requires investments in key sectors. It should not take much to beat current SL government however the Somalias gov is currently in shambles. Time will tell

 

[0117]

Electorate is specific to voting and western nations produce not even 15%of their total population at the ballots let alone SL. But city sizes and settlement count gives a good understanding of overall demographics urban and rural

This is registered voters...
You can't run away from actual statistics and what's worrisome is that if eastern Sanaag electorate districs of Dhahar, Badhan and laasqorey we're fully registered than the numbers would be significantly higher.Even Laascaanod electorate district doesn't take into account the tuulos up to the border.

 

[Wir]

This is registered voters...
You can't run away from actual statistics and what's worrisome is that if eastern Sanaag electorate districs of Dhahar, Badhan and laasqorey we're fully registered than the numbers would be significantly higher.Even Laascaanod electorate district doesn't take into account the tuulos up to the border.

I know its registered voters but my point stands. America has roughly 50% of its voters as registered voters how is that indicative of its overall population? Hargeisa population is well over the 1million mark yet the total registered voters in all Somaliland is 1.2 million. You're using the wrong metric to measure a population, albeit there's not many metrics to accurately measure the countries pop aside from metropolitan indicators(large cities=large population) and rural settlements(indicative of large nomadic populations) both of which prove extremely low in eastern sool and eastern sanaag

 

[DalsanJubiland]

Recognition is waste of time
No Somali leader dear to do that
So guys don’t waste time come to your senses.
You just misleading poor folks.

 

[Wir]

@0117 let's entertain your POV for sake of discussion.

Let's compare darood inhabited districts vs the Isaaq sub sub sub sub sub sub clan Jibril abokor inhabited district of Gabikey

Lascaanood district: 61.2k
Taleex district: 7.7k
Xudun distrixt which is shares with my clan HY =7.8k, I will be generous and give them the full count of the district

Now sanaag

Badhan district: 8k
Dhahar district: 3k


That's all Darood in Somaliland. Now let's compare that to 1 district inhabited only by a sub sub sub sub sub sub clan of Isaaq, Jibril abokor of Sacad muuse

Total registered voters in darood land are 87.7k

Gabiley district=92.7k registered voters

 

[reer]

another isaaq vs mj fight

 

[0117]

@0117 let's entertain your POV for sake of discussion.

View attachment 183357




Let's compare darood inhabited districts vs the Isaaq sub sub sub sub sub sub clan Jibril abokor inhabited district of Gabikey

Lascaanood district: 61.2k
Taleex district: 7.7k
Xudun distrixt which is shares with my clan HY =7.8k, I will be generous and give them the full count of the district

Now sanaag

Badhan district: 8k
Dhahar district: 3k


That's all Darood in Somaliland. Now let's compare that to 1 district inhabited only by a sub sub sub sub sub sub clan of Isaaq, Jibril abokor of Sacad muuse

Total registered voters in darood land are 87.7k

Gabiley district=92.7k registered voters

Like I mentioned Dhahar and Badhan electorate districts weren't fully registered by locals.This is given as there are no council candidates for any of the parties as local don't want to be part of Somaliland yet. Plus it's missing the laasqorey electorate district....
A census would resolve this whole debate but as you know such policy is unachievable by the current SL regime unless it's a project proposed, funded and carried by a NGO....

 

[somebody]

This doesnt make sense. The borders are defined by law and legally the country of Somaliland law was registered in the UN in 1960 with the same borders it claims today. Puntlands claims of its borders have no precedent and by admission of it's own constitution Puntlands borders are the only borders on earth that are based on clan. The argument of Somaliland recognition giving rise to other African countries wanting recognition is false and was proven wrong when South Sudan was recognized. This argument was first introduced in the early 2000s and is outdated

Except that other countries only started recognizing South Sudan after Sudan did it itself, who was the first country to recognize the new state. Recognizong a new secessioned country without an agreement with its neighbors and former country can often be complex and problematic. And the legality of your border will not matter if you unlawfully exited the country in the first place.

 

[Wir]

Like I mentioned Dhahar and Badhan electorate districts weren't fully registered by locals.This is given as there are no council candidates for any of the parties as local don't want to be part of Somaliland yet. Plus it's missing the laasqorey electorate district....
A census would resolve this whole debate but as you know such policy is unachievable by the current SL regime unless it's a project proposed, funded and carried by a NGO....

So why pose the point to begin with. I mentioned that elections is not a good metric for measuring pop, but if we do use It then it shows that there's an extremely low population in those regions. Lasqoray district is broken down into Badhan and Dhahar. This was the biggest turnout in eastern sanaag and eastern sool and the results are reflective of what population density maps already prove, a very low population

 

[Wir]

And the legality of your border will not matter if you unlawfully exited the country in the first place.

Somaliland has every right to unilaterally exit the Somali Republic. Somaliland came into the union with a defined border and population recognized by the United Nations and all permanent members of the UN Security council as an independent country. The union of Somalia Italiana and Somaliland was in fact illegal since no bilateral act of union was ever ratified. Somalia has no legal claim over Somaliland whatsoever and it's only a matter of time before this issue is resolved

 

[World]

Somaliland will not get recognition because every year that goes by, the share of Isaaq in the borders of former British Somaliland declines. Recognition happens in 2 ways in diverse countries and in homogenous countries.

In diverse countries, like South Sudan or Eritrea, recognition happens when the various ethnic groups are unanimous on separation from the original country. The Dinka and Nuer don’t agree on anything but they were unanimous on independence. The Tigray and Muslims agreed on separating from Ethiopia. This is why the referendums in South Sudan and Eritrea gained the support of over 97% of each country.

In relatively homogenous breakaway states, like Kosovo, where a single ethnic group has an overwhelming majority there is no need for consensus among the various ethnic groups. Ethnic Serbs in Kosovo oppose secession from Belgrade, but they don't matter because 93% of Kosovo is Albanian and support for secession among them is 100%.

Former British Somaliland is more like South Sudan or Eritrea rather than Kosovo. The Dinka are about 36% of South Sudan and the Tigray are about 50% of the population of Eritrea. The Isaaq, making up something between 55-60% of former British Somaliland's present day population, are more like the Dinka or Tigray rather than the Kosovo Albanians at 93%. This means that the support for secession in the territory of former British Somaliland needs to reach the level of consensus reached by Eritrea and South Sudan. Unanimous support for secession among the Isaaq simply will not cut it. There are not enough Isaaq to actually impose a functioning state if 40-45% of the population does not support it.

Keep in mind that Eritrea and South Sudan, states that had 99% and 98% support for secession, are now failed states. The International community will not recognize a state where support for secession is probably under 70% and where the largest ethnic group, the Isaaq, will drop from being a majority to a plurality over the next 10 years. No one has an appetite for another failed state in East Africa.


If the Isaaq were serious about secession, they should have based their claim on genocide and on the right to self-determination as a consequence of genocide. The mistake they made was that they claimed their right to secession was ultimately based on a civic identity of belonging to British Somaliland and on popular support. This sort of made sense 30 years ago when the Isaaq were 70% of the population and acting like Kosovo Albanians was possible. Has Somaliland built unanimity on secession over the past 30 years? It has not, and that failure is why it will never gain recognition.

How did Isaaq go from 70 % to 55 %? Can you expand?

 

[mr steal your naag]

How did Isaaq go from 70 % to 55 %? Can you expand?

The delusion. if isaaq was only 55% Why didn all these other qabils that are pro Somalia in sl allready forced us in somalia?

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

How did Isaaq go from 70 % to 55 %? Can you expand?

Isaaq and Harti are growing at different rates due to differences in fertility. This is a result mainly of the fact that 70% of the Isaaq population live in two urban districts, Burco and Hargeisa. The rapid urbanization that took place in these two districts over the past 30 years has lowered Isaaq fertility to only 60% of that of the Harti. This has created a population growth rate that is about 30% greater among the Harti than the Isaaq. The Isaaq began their fertility transition before the Harti, mostly due to their lead in urbanization, this is very similar to the dynamic between the Kikuyu and Kalenjin in Kenya.

The Warsangeli and Dhulbahante have an average TFR of 7.8, while the Isaaq have a TFR of 5.6. The Harti have fertility that is the same as it was in the 1980s, marked by the red oval. Meanwhile the Isaaq resemble the early 2000s fertility of places like Kenya or Eritrea, marked by the blue oval.

Starting your demographic transition 15-20 years before your enemies do is a bad idea.

 

[mr steal your naag]

Isaaq and Harti are growing at different rates due to differences in fertility. This is a result mainly of the fact that 70% of the Isaaq population live in two urban districts, Burco and Hargeisa. The rapid urbanization that took place in these two districts over the past 30 years has lowered Isaaq fertility to only 60% of that of the Harti. This has created a population growth rate that is about 30% greater among the Harti than the Isaaq. The Isaaq began their fertility transition before the Harti, mostly due to their lead in urbanization, this is very similar to the dynamic between the Kikuyu and Kalenjin in Kenya.

The Warsangeli and Dhulbahante have an average TFR of 7.8, while the Isaaq have a TFR of 5.6. The Harti have fertility that is the same as it was in the 1980s, marked by the red oval. Meanwhile the Isaaq resemble the early 2000s fertility of places like Kenya or Eritrea, marked by the blue oval.

View attachment 184024

Starting your demographic transition 15-20 years before your enemies do is a bad idea.

Sxb isaaq will always be the Majority in SL. You act like isaaq will stop making kids

 

[World]

Isaaq and Harti are growing at different rates due to differences in fertility. This is a result mainly of the fact that 70% of the Isaaq population live in two urban districts, Burco and Hargeisa. The rapid urbanization that took place in these two districts over the past 30 years has lowered Isaaq fertility to only 60% of that of the Harti. This has created a population growth rate that is about 30% greater among the Harti than the Isaaq. The Isaaq began their fertility transition before the Harti, mostly due to their lead in urbanization, this is very similar to the dynamic between the Kikuyu and Kalenjin in Kenya.

The Warsangeli and Dhulbahante have an average TFR of 7.8, while the Isaaq have a TFR of 5.6. The Harti have fertility that is the same as it was in the 1980s, marked by the red oval. Meanwhile the Isaaq resemble the early 2000s fertility of places like Kenya or Eritrea, marked by the blue oval.

View attachment 184024

Starting your demographic transition 15-20 years before your enemies do is a bad idea.

Very interesting. Thank you.

 

[Wir]

Isaaq and Harti are growing at different rates due to differences in fertility. This is a result mainly of the fact that 70% of the Isaaq population live in two urban districts, Burco and Hargeisa. The rapid urbanization that took place in these two districts over the past 30 years has lowered Isaaq fertility to only 60% of that of the Harti. This has created a population growth rate that is about 30% greater among the Harti than the Isaaq. The Isaaq began their fertility transition before the Harti, mostly due to their lead in urbanization, this is very similar to the dynamic between the Kikuyu and Kalenjin in Kenya.

The Warsangeli and Dhulbahante have an average TFR of 7.8, while the Isaaq have a TFR of 5.6. The Harti have fertility that is the same as it was in the 1980s, marked by the red oval. Meanwhile the Isaaq resemble the early 2000s fertility of places like Kenya or Eritrea, marked by the blue oval.

View attachment 184024

Starting your demographic transition 15-20 years before your enemies do is a bad idea.

Give up mate. You were obliterated by @TabK in this thread below. There's no need to keep regurgitating the same topic

https://www.somalispot.com/threads/differential-fertility-in-northern-somalia.105950/

 

[0117]

Give up mate. You were obliterated by @TabK in this thread below. There's no need to keep regurgitating the same topic

https://www.somalispot.com/threads/differential-fertility-in-northern-somalia.105950/

The somnet posts killed it. I don't think I've ever seen anyone demolished on a Somali forum like that

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Give up mate. You were obliterated by @TabK in this thread below. There's no need to keep regurgitating the same topic

https://www.somalispot.com/threads/differential-fertility-in-northern-somalia.105950/

TabK never disputed the survey results from October 2020 in which the TFR of Sool at 7.8 is almost double that of Maroodijeex, i.e Hargeisa&Gebilay at 4.5 . He tried to nitpick my guess of how to divide the 1975 figures of Woqoyie Galbeed which at the time included Awdal.

There is no way to argue that Harti and Isaaq are growing at similar rates when the the two majority Harti states, Sool and Sanaag, have TFRs that are 73% than the Isaaq core. There is no getting around this fact.