Will Somalia suffer the same fate as Afghanistan when AMISOM leave?

[Ismail99]

why would a boon refugee be allowed by Ogaden back into their city

Nobody said they would be allowed, AS would take it by force.

 

[World]

@Thegoodshepherd

 

[Cerberus]

No because we have Turkey that is aligned with us and has military base in Somalia. Turkey has extreme military might.

 

[Dima&Damo]

If They Ever Set Their Red Eyes On Nugaal This Will Be The Outcome Of These Wayward Fools

 

[Aurelian]

Tribalism and ethnic divisions are a thing in afghanistan. In the late 90's and early 2000's the majority of the Taliban was Pashtun and as a result they had trouble capturing the non Pashtun north of Afghanistan which was receiving western funding. However this time they expanded to include much more non pashtun people and they captured the entirety of the north within 2 months.

The really went and utilized the "diversity is our strength "

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

@Thegoodshepherd

It is unlikely that Alshabab can take all of Somalia in a similar way. If Amisom were to leave, the only places south of Galkacyo that can resist Alshabab are Kismayo and Mogadishu.

D&M are almost all pro Alshabab, and will be the first to be taken over. Bantu are pro Alshabab. Hawiye yaryar like Galjecel, Murusade, Duduble are pro Alshabab. Cayr are chameleons and will join whatever group is winning, so they will join Alshabab. This means that Sacad and Salebaan will be taken over also since Cayr is the more powerful subclan. Most of Lower Juba and Gedo will fall since many Ogaden & Marehan are pro Alshabab, only a few towns on the edges will remain free. The only places in Southern Somalia that will remain free but besieged are Mogadishu and Kismayo. Ethiopia and Kenya will interfere if it ever looked like Alshabab were about to take over either port city. The Marehan in Gedo are able to fight

The question that remains is whether Alshabab would make the mistake of attacking Puntland, does Alshabab want to get into a conflict that will never end against a state that would never accept having its land occupied? Puntland would never accept Alshabab control and has the resources to defeat Alshabab in Mudug and probably drive them south to Hiiraan. The question is: will Alshabab accept being a regional power in southern Somalia, or will they attempt to start the third phase of Somalia's civil war?

 

[TekNiKo]

Yes I believe if Kenya leaves Kismaayo AS will capture it in 24 hours also if Ethiopians leave Baydhaba same thing. I say let AMISOM leave only strong clans like MX who can survive wallahi dad badan ba riyoodood dhamaan laha especially Madoobe

 

[reer]

It is unlikely that Alshabab can take all of Somalia in a similar way. If Amisom were to leave, the only places south of Galkacyo that can resist Alshabab are Kismayo and Mogadishu.

D&M are almost all pro Alshabab, and will be the first to be taken over. Bantu are pro Alshabab. Hawiye yaryar like Galjecel, Murusade, Duduble are pro Alshabab. Cayr are chameleons and will join whatever group is winning, so they will join Alshabab. This means that Sacad and Salebaan will be taken over also since Cayr is the more powerful subclan. Most of Lower Juba and Gedo will fall since many Ogaden & Marehan are pro Alshabab, only a few towns on the edges will remain free. The only places in Southern Somalia that will remain free but besieged are Mogadishu and Kismayo. Ethiopia and Kenya will interfere if it ever looked like Alshabab were about to take over either port city. The Marehan in Gedo are able to fight

The question that remains is whether Alshabab would make the mistake of attacking Puntland, does Alshabab want to get into a conflict that will never end against a state that would never accept having its land occupied? Puntland would never accept Alshabab control and has the resources to defeat Alshabab in Mudug and probably drive them south to Hiiraan. The question is: will Alshabab accept being a regional power in southern Somalia, or will they attempt to start the third phase of Somalia's civil war?

what would happen to tge fgs? would the fgs move to puntland? would it be replaced by an government in exile in doha etc?

Yes I believe if Kenya leaves Kismaayo AS will capture it in 24 hours also if Ethiopians leave Baydhaba same thing. I say let AMISOM leave only strong clans like MX who can survive wallahi dad badan ba riyoodood dhamaan laha especially Madoobe

bardera is close to saakow and salagle and gobolka bay. if they get baidoa and/or kismayo bardera could follow.

 

[TekNiKo]

what would happen to tge fgs? would the fgs move to puntland? would it be replaced by an government in exile in doha etc?

bardera is close to saakow and salagle and gobolka bay. if they get baidoa and/or kismayo bardera could follow.

Kismayo doesnt affect Bardhere but Bay your right they would have easy path access.

 

[reer]

Kismayo doesnt affect Bardhere but Bay your right they would have easy path access.

kismayo = funds and morale from mx shabab

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

what would happen to tge fgs? would the fgs move to puntland? would it be replaced by an government in exile in doha etc?

The FGS will continue to reside in Mogadishu. Ethiopia, Kenya and the US will not allow the façade of a central government to fall. If Southern Somalia were to fall to Alshabab, Puntland may end up simply declaring independence.

 

[Juliet]

God, I hope not. The way those terrorists quickly consolidated power as soon as the U.S. left is just scary

 

[Nilotic]

Yes I believe if Kenya leaves Kismaayo AS will capture it in 24 hours also if Ethiopians leave Baydhaba same thing. I say let AMISOM leave only strong clans like MX who can survive wallahi dad badan ba riyoodood dhamaan laha especially Madoobe

How in the world is Al-Shabab so strong when it seems to completely lack popular support? I suppose my perception may be skewed by the fact that forum members reside almost entirely in the West.

 

[TekNiKo]

How in the world is Al-Shabab so strong when it seems to completely lack popular support? I suppose my perception may be skewed by the fact that forum members reside almost entirely in the West.

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[Nilotic]

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That's very informative. Thank you.

 

[Kanan]

Tribalism and ethnic divisions are a thing in afghanistan. In the late 90's and early 2000's the majority of the Taliban was Pashtun and as a result they had trouble capturing the non Pashtun north of Afghanistan which was receiving western funding. However this time they expanded to include much more non pashtun people and they captured the entirety of the north within 2 months.

Northern Alliance had a powerful leader who managed to keep Taliban at bay. Shah Masoud.

There is no man of such caliber amongst the Afghan gov, they surrendered before fight begun.

 

[reer]

That's very informative. Thank you.

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[Jiron]

SNA has been doing all the heavy lifting in liberating our country from the forces of evil, Amisom haven't been relevant in years in terms of fighting capability. I think comparing shabaab to taliban is wrong, they are world apart literally and figuratively

 

[Qeelbax]

The fact that Somalis are divided by qabiil lines makes it easier for Al Shabab to conquer them. A divided enemy is easier to conquer than a united enemy. Will Marehan and Ogaden who are fighting each other in Jubbaland unite against Al Shabab? No they won’t. If Darood won’t unite to fight against Al Shabab, then what hope does the rest of the country have? Only Puntland and Somaliland could fight against them.

Who said we wont? WE WILL INSHALLAH!

 

[SPMLegend]

Garbahareey will be the first town to Fall to Alshabab because it’s besieged from all sides. These Marehans thinking supporting khawarijis will help them will learn it the hard way. After Baardheere comes Buurdhuubo,Luuq Doolow when the Ethiopians leave.