Will Somalia suffer the same fate as Afghanistan when AMISOM leave?

[Shaafici Mujaahid]

Somaliland and Puntland should merge and secede from becoming a terrorist state.

 

[codewebsduh]

American troops all left Somalia earlier this year , ofcourse none of you guys will talk about that.

AMISOM is drawing down its forces and Somalia is only increasing in strength. Kashmiris from Khaatumo along with their Isaaq masters wish for Somalia to fall back into hell.



This awaits you haters.

 

[IPushFatKids]

interesting discussion

taliban didn't face resistance, the governors surrendered after negotiations. i highly doubt shabaab would operate that way as they view almost everyone as murtads

I am convinced Al Shabab isn't guided by their radical beliefs as many would think.
Every fiber of my being tells me 99% can be bribed to desert their rank for a small sum of money (and given that their family is safe). These people are straught thugs who extort for their own greed and use Islam/zakah as a guise for their thuggery.

It is unlikely that Alshabab can take all of Somalia in a similar way. If Amisom were to leave, the only places south of Galkacyo that can resist Alshabab are Kismayo and Mogadishu.

D&M are almost all pro Alshabab, and will be the first to be taken over. Bantu are pro Alshabab. Hawiye yaryar like Galjecel, Murusade, Duduble are pro Alshabab. Cayr are chameleons and will join whatever group is winning, so they will join Alshabab. This means that Sacad and Salebaan will be taken over also since Cayr is the more powerful subclan. Most of Lower Juba and Gedo will fall since many Ogaden & Marehan are pro Alshabab, only a few towns on the edges will remain free. The only places in Southern Somalia that will remain free but besieged are Mogadishu and Kismayo. Ethiopia and Kenya will interfere if it ever looked like Alshabab were about to take over either port city. The Marehan in Gedo are able to fight

The question that remains is whether Alshabab would make the mistake of attacking Puntland, does Alshabab want to get into a conflict that will never end against a state that would never accept having its land occupied? Puntland would never accept Alshabab control and has the resources to defeat Alshabab in Mudug and probably drive them south to Hiiraan. The question is: will Alshabab accept being a regional power in southern Somalia, or will they attempt to start the third phase of Somalia's civil war?

can somone give a rough estimate on how many al shabab fighters there are? which is closest:

5k
10k
15k
20k
50k

?

my guess is 10k tops....

it is beyond pathetic less than 10k soldiers...prolly have of them kids... have been terrorising Somalia for over a decade.

 

[Maxaa kaa galay]

In one month, the Taliban has captured almost the entire country and the President has fled the country. Over a trillion dollars, 20 years building the Afghan army and government, and they crumbled in a matter of weeks.

Will Somalia’s government suffer the same fate as Afghanistan’s government? I mean we are not that different. Both of our government’s are extremely corrupt. Our soldiers are not real soldiers, they can’t fight Al Shabab without AMISOM backing and will probably flee at the first sign of real trouble. They are not motivated, hungry, unpaid. Somalia doesn’t have real control outside of Mogadishu, likewise Afghanistan didn’t really have control outside of Kabul.

No they wouldnt since amisom doesnt even fight against Al-shabab. And SNA has in shorter time liberated more areas than amisomians have done during their stay. Last month when SNA asked amisom to join the fight against Al-shabab, they refused.

 

[mr steal your naag]

interesting discussion



I am convinced Al Shabab isn't guided by their radical beliefs as many would think.
Every fiber of my being tells me 99% can be bribed to desert their rank for a small sum of money (and given that their family is safe). These people are straught thugs who extort for their own greed and use Islam/zakah as a guise for their thuggery.




can somone give a rough estimate on how many al shabab fighters there are? which is closest:

5k
10k
15k
20k
50k

?

my guess is 10k tops....

it is beyond pathetic less than 10k soldiers...prolly have of them kids... have been terrorising Somalia for over a decade.

I think between 10-15k max 20k. taliban has 200k

 

[mr steal your naag]

i just realised that Afghanistan has their own airplane

 

[reer]

@Thegoodshepherd genuine question do you think shabab will see this and decide to stick with somalia and go on a taliban esque campaign of "absorb and heshiis"? me una maleynayo because of ajaanibta ku jirta.

 

[Shaafici Mujaahid]

American troops all left Somalia earlier this year , ofcourse none of you guys will talk about that.

AMISOM is drawing down its forces and Somalia is only increasing in strength. Kashmiris from Khaatumo along with their Isaaq masters wish for Somalia to fall back into hell.



This awaits you haters.

Bro how many year will it take the army to even take ceelbuur

 

[Abdisamad]

why would a boon refugee be allowed by Ogaden back into their city

These niggaz would clime any tree to conquer kismaayo.. Are they a bunch of flees horta

 

[Jaale]

Not possible. You have Somaliland and Puntland which are autonomous and fully in control by Somali forces without external force.

Galmudug is getting there now shabab nearly eradicated in a month. All carried out by Somali forces unlike Afghanistan with all the equipment, NATO was doing the fighting.

To top it all off, we are doing this with an arms embargo so the soldiers have barely any equipment. While AMISOM sits in bunkers refusing to fight and collecting cheques.

It is very lucrative for our neighbours because it means the US and EU turns a blind eye to them while they act as a policeman (mercenary) for the them. It also means a huge chunk of their soldiers don't need to be funded by them. So more money for the corrupt elites.

 

[Xoxoxo]

Yeah it will most likely go the same way but somalis have 1 thing afghans dont have and its qabil every man would fight for his clan and protect their tuulos from terrorist. except the small clans they would fight with all shabab against gouverment troops. If they took over it would proberly look like this
View attachment 197593

Yeah I’ll never go to Mogadishu if that shut happens. If that day comes close I am officially a somalilander

 

[mr steal your naag]

Yeah I’ll never go to Mogadishu if that shut happens. If that day comes close I am officially a somalilander

Honnestly if you speak to some southerners they were very happy when ICU were ruling the south they had peace atleast

 

[Anubis]

Somalia is walking in Afghanistan’s footsteps

The nation-building experiment in Somalia will collapse, just like in Afghanistan, unless a different approach is taken.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[mr steal your naag]

Somalia is walking in Afghanistan’s footsteps

The nation-building experiment in Somalia will collapse, just like in Afghanistan, unless a different approach is taken.

www.aljazeera.com

Damm they allready made a article

 

[World]

Somalia is walking in Afghanistan’s footsteps

The nation-building experiment in Somalia will collapse, just like in Afghanistan, unless a different approach is taken.

www.aljazeera.com

Didn’t even bother to read after I saw the author was Kenyan.

 

[convincation]

i just realised that Afghanistan has their own airplane View attachment 197735

 

[Basra]

In one month, the Taliban has captured almost the entire country and the President has fled the country. Over a trillion dollars, 20 years building the Afghan army and government, and they crumbled in a matter of weeks.

Will Somalia’s government suffer the same fate as Afghanistan’s government? I mean we are not that different. Both of our government’s are extremely corrupt. Our soldiers are not real soldiers, they can’t fight Al Shabab without AMISOM backing and will probably flee at the first sign of real trouble. They are not motivated, hungry, unpaid. Somalia doesn’t have real control outside of Mogadishu, likewise Afghanistan didn’t really have control outside of Kabul.

in a heart beat. All this vlogs and tourism, and houses being built in Somalia now will look like ghost town.

 

[fais]