2023 FGS Budget Review

Hilmaam

Let him cook
VIP
FGS didn't meet Capital spend goal this is major projects like roads, electric.... due to lack of funding
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Hilmaam

Let him cook
VIP
Capital expenditure of $14.31 million is unbelievably low. All the FGS money is spent on salaries and maintaining status quo. Without govt capital expenditure country is stuck in standstill. There is a lot of money out there we probably missing out on due to bad governance and project managers if place was safer more competant people from west would help with this as there are many somalis in these fields

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Hilmaam

Let him cook
VIP
Money sent to each FMS from FGS. It seems Somaliland bypassing FGS don't see how they can lose all funding. Also 2023 actual money received is way less than what was planned with Puntland being hardest hit receiving 58% of planned money and 68% reduction from 2022
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Hilmaam

Let him cook
VIP
Overall don't think major projects in Puntland and other places being sabotaged by govt on purpose there was no funds at all for CapEx projects for whole country last year. Majority of it due to things outside FGS control like donors slashing budgets and others due to missed deadlines and not meeting milestones which was self inflicted
 

Hilmaam

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VIP
The national development plan 2020-2024 aka NDP 9 which was released in 2019 called out the need to invest in roads. NDP 10 should be coming out soon if pattern holds from NDP 9 should be released around November of this year

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Hilmaam

Let him cook
VIP
Project above were ongoing in 2019 when NDP 9 was released but shows how little is invested in infrastructure in the country and issues with even getting fresh fruit to capital due to bad roads and lack of safety. And most of the money on roads spent on rehabilitating existing roads which fell to disrepair. Roads don't have that long of a life. Unless there is significant increase in budgets we will be stuck maintaining and building gravel roads and not build badly needed new highways that will interconnect country

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Money sent to each FMS from FGS. It seems Somaliland bypassing FGS don't see how they can lose all funding. Also 2023 actual money received is way less than what was planned with Puntland being hardest hit receiving 58% of planned money and 68% reduction from 2022
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They way I understand is that Somaliland signed a deal with the Somali government in early 2010s which created the Somaliland special arrangement. Somaliland deals directly with international aid groups and receives financing that doesn't come through Mogadishu until a policial settlement is reached on the status of Somaliland. That's why you don't see Somaliland in the figure below (FGS transfers to FMS). The FGS i'm aware receives big grants from the World Bank in the form of budget support which is basically unearmarked cash to help with their budget (expected to be $186m this year). Somaliland doesn't normally tap into any funds sent to Mogadishu but did on a once off basis due to the damage caused by the Waheen Market fire in 2022.

Puntland's fund on the other hand are definitely being politicized. Recently the've been complaining and arguing for similar status to Somaliland. They have no independence claim at all. Just a bunch of pretenders minimizing Somaliland at every opportunity. Anyway rant over.
 

Gemstone

Sincerity is a dangerous thing.
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  • 2023 the domestic revenue was about 80% of the Grants received.
  • For context, Domestic/Grant revenue ratio for the year 2021 was about 43%.
  • And the same ratio for the fiscal year 2022 was about 36%.

As per usual Benadir carrying Somalia so hard. 329 million USD and this year it will hit 400 million USD.
 
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Gemstone

Sincerity is a dangerous thing.
Domestic revenue for fiscal year 2023 was 329 million USD, a 25% increase from the previous year. And for the first time, the fiscal balance was surplus. Birmade HSM and Mudane Hamza deserve a lot of credit. They have done a tremendous job.
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Even tax compliance by reer Benaadir has increased
 
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Hilmaam

Let him cook
VIP
They way I understand is that Somaliland signed a deal with the Somali government in early 2010s which created the Somaliland special arrangement. Somaliland deals directly with international aid groups and receives financing that doesn't come through Mogadishu until a policial settlement is reached on the status of Somaliland. That's why you don't see Somaliland in the figure below (FGS transfers to FMS). The FGS i'm aware receives big grants from the World Bank in the form of budget support which is basically unearmarked cash to help with their budget (expected to be $186m this year). Somaliland doesn't normally tap into any funds sent to Mogadishu but did on a once off basis due to the damage caused by the Waheen Market fire in 2022.

Puntland's fund on the other hand are definitely being politicized. Recently the've been complaining and arguing for similar status to Somaliland. They have no independence claim at all. Just a bunch of pretenders minimizing Somaliland at every opportunity. Anyway rant over.
I don't like talking independence it's pointless. Somalia will not be broken up. Can puntland and somaliland do own thing outside FGS of course and we have seen outside investment directly to these states while we are in this stalemate. But I will pull some of somaliland finance information into here. will take a bit to convert from shilling to usd will try and see if chat gpt can do it
 

Hilmaam

Let him cook
VIP
Using exchange rate of 1 USD = 8,660 SLSH, somaliland shilling, which is called out on page 4 as average exchange rate for 2023

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Hilmaam

Let him cook
VIP
Somaliland revenue was 281.6 million dollars. $259 million was domestic revenue collected by the government. The remaining 22.4 million was outside money provided to government. Its across board it looks like with lack of outside funding


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