An independent Puntland?
- Thread starter Abdisamad
- Start date
Somalias future will be one country two systems. That 2nd system will not be Puntland. Good luck dealing with zoo politics in the future 
You lost that chance in Aug 2023 Goojacade marathon if it ever even existedSomalias future will be one country two systems. That 2nd system will not be Puntland. Good luck dealing with zoo politics in the future
You don't have permission to view the spoiler content.
Log in or register now.
Chat GPT?
Maybe you need to feed it accurate information before posting.
You don't have permission to view the spoiler content.
Log in or register now.
The man who uses A.I to compose answers, has the nerve to tell me that I have a lack of understanding. LMAO
Get out of here. If Puntland wants to leave Somalia or stay within Somalia, it doesn't concern you, go focus on your own land.
Explain how the garacaad port was built
He will ask Chat GPT, give him a few minutes to copy and paste.
Somalias future will be one country two systems. That 2nd system will not be Puntland. Good luck dealing with zoo politics in the future
Your very sneaky as u know secessionist movements won't be accepted globally as it could lead to can of worms globally, imagine 6000 tribes in Africa using the somaliland recognition as some sort of justification for their independence movement. So the globe won't want to see potentially 6000 nations emerging in Africa in the UN general assembly lol,
they keep telling your leaders recognition won't come from external to Somalia that's for certain because if it came from Somalia then they can stop those 6000 tribes by telling them to negiotate with who u seek a divorce not come to the global world order and asking them to set up a bad trend of external recognition.Now your using the china two system one nation model but thru colonial borders so you can throw PL into the southern zoo. Nice trick. Puntland geologically isn't even southern, and it always had its kingdom before being sacked forcefully by Italy and forced in the political south. It was then when they arrived that independence movement even began as the south was happy being like south African blacks under white minority rule.
That cost-benefit analysis has been made every single day for the last thirty years by every president in Puntland, from the moment they wake up to the moment they go to bed. Until something truly momentous happens, like HSM refusing to step down after being voted out, the results will remain the same.
Roughly, there are two actually feasible scenarios:
- Secession gets declared. Xamar, like they did with Somaliland, manages to get the international community to ignore it, leaving Puntland in limbo like SL while forfeiting its influence and power over the FGS. Shenanigans will occur, with the FGS trying to divert as much aid money as they can. Things will remain the same on the ground with now having two hostile actors on their flanks.
- Balkanization. The FMS are built up enough, and seeing over half the territory now de facto independent, a balkanization race begins. What happens then is murkyβsuffering and death, for sure. Al-Shabaab could rear its ugly head and gain popular support as people become disillusioned by clan conflict once more. Whatever happens, the southern border of Puntland will be anxious. FMS are to weak to even occupy are their on paper land, knowing Somalis, expect a bunch of micro-states to start being declared aswell and a general chaoticness till we either see an islamist or warlord faction reunite them.
A lot of other scenarios exist, but clean balkanization (where every FMS forms its own nation) is borderline impossible. Many of the FMS are too weak, kept alive only by foreign troops and air raids by the United States. Like the federal structures, their existence was imposed from the top down.
We've seen the normalization of HTS and the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan. The international community is no longer as virulent against extremist takeovers, provided they can rebrand themselves enough to wipe the blood from their hands. I do believe Puntland declaring indepedence will have an cascading effect, which will lead to bloody clashes and out off all the scenarios I do believe an Al shabaab take over coming from all that is the most likely scenario.
The fact that itβs so unclear is why, for the last thirty years, secession has never been declared. Right now, Puntland remains a factor of importance. Either you govern with them at the table, or you spend all your energy fighting them. Ignoring them is simply impossible. As others have said, in the grand scheme of things, four years is nothing for a politician. HSM is currently the most unpopular of the three post-2010 presidents weβve had. Thereβs a small chance heβll be re-elected, and a new election means new opportunities to shape the future as desired.
A lot of people live in the here and now, every day they either go from being depressed doomers to joyous boomers depending on what bit of news gets the most traction on this forum.
Yusuf M
PuntExit
Great job, Mr. Abdisamad. Lots of reer PL are waking up from the Matrix or the Somalitrix as I like to call it. They finally realized that south Somalia, in particular Hutuville, is a dead land like Chernobly.
Puntland secession won't bring about anything that wasn't already going to happen. It might speed things up though.
The status quo is not going to lead to the emergence of any system that can elimante the terrorists and govern Somalia effectively. Entertaining Puntland is just the slowed down version of events.
Theres external pressure donors won't fund a political standoff forever.
Last edited:
No region of somalia will ever actually secede from the country. It's just butthurt diaspora who advocate for it. None of the Somali elites even the ones in somaliland actually think they could or even want to secede. You can tell this easily by how it was only under muse bihi that the rhetoric of secession grew. But now this rhetoric is being quickly thrown away by cirrio and his group.
Abdisamad
VIP
Even with a new government Somalia is unrevivable.. As I see it the south has 3 choices.
1. Form an effective state and defeat AS and get rid of the foreign troops.
2. Become a UN administered area, i.e UN trusteeship.
3. Complete collapse of the UN/international community supported weak FGS and shabab take over of the whole region.. This will create an isolated state who frequently gets bombed by western forces, no future and no development for many years to come except extremism and terrorism.
No matter the outcome in the south PL shall continue its development as an independent state.
We failed.
Bro we didn't even tried let's be honest none of the Somali politicians plan to revive somalia
Abdisamad
VIP
The only butthurt is people like who chose to blind themselves to the fact Somalia as a state has died, why we will need to chose our path out of the failed state.
Abdisamad
VIP
How are you gonna revive a functioning state when we have people who thrive in anarchy and corruption? It's waste of time sxb..
So the alternative is to be conquered by Kenya and Ethiopia right because let be honest if somalia break no Somali will fight for other Somali.
Why would I die for a lander if we aren't in the same nation.
Trending
-
-
-
Are Somali men experiencing the "great shift"?- Started by Kamaaludeen Al Reewin
- Replies: 111
