Disintegration of Ethiopia

[Idilinaa]

You forgot the variable that if ethiopia collapses it could cause the worlds largest refugee crisis resulting in millions exiting the country to safer countries, and I doubt ethiopia will allow for a peaceful breakup only way it will happen is through war and even then the west wont allow it to happen, essentailly ethiopia is kept on life support indefinitely by the west and I dont see them cutting that off soon.

Think about it deeper. If their goal is to prevent war, loss of life and a refugee crisis. Then it wouldn't be far fetched to say that people will lay the case both internally and externally for a peaceful dissolution to avoid it.

Its gotten to a point that they see no other way. It will be offered as an ultimatum in the end, that's what i believe will happen.

 

[Zak12]

Ethiopia's actions become understandable when you realize they suffer from the "Ahmed Gurey syndrome".

Ethiopian–Somali conflict - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Haggai Erlich coined the term 'Ahmed Gragn Syndrome' to describe the deep-seated Ethiopian suspicions and fears of Islam that arose from the devastation of the war. According to Erlich, many Ethiopians perceive Somalis as descendants of Ahmed Gragn, viewing them as perpetually poised to destabilize Ethiopia.

They got buckbroken so badly by the Imam they wake up in a cold sweat every day over the thought of Somalia being strong.

 

[Aseer]

Ethiopia's actions become understandable when you realize they suffer from the "Ahmed Gurey syndrome".

Ethiopian–Somali conflict - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Haggai Erlich coined the term 'Ahmed Gragn Syndrome' to describe the deep-seated Ethiopian suspicions and fears of Islam that arose from the devastation of the war. According to Erlich, many Ethiopians perceive Somalis as descendants of Ahmed Gragn, viewing them as perpetually poised to destabilize Ethiopia.

They got buckbroken so badly by the Imam they wake up in a cold sweat every day over the thought of Somalia being strong.

I dont blame them they got traumatised so hard they made artworks.

 

[Aseer]

Think about it deeper. If their goal is to prevent war, loss of life and a refugee crisis. Then it wouldn't be far fetched to say that people will lay the case both internally and externally for a peaceful dissolution to avoid it.

Its gotten to a point that they see no other way. It will be offered as an ultimatum in the end, that's what i believe will happen.

What makes you think that ethiopia will dissolve peacefully, theres no way of that happening internal actors in ethiopia will look past it.

 

[Hilmaam]

What makes you think that ethiopia will dissolve peacefully, theres no way of that happening internal actors in ethiopia will look past it.

it will be massive civil war to determine borders, today its 1 nation and their federal states have constant battles and changing borders

 

[Aseer]

it will be massive civil war to determine borders, today its 1 nation and their federal states have constant battles and changing borders

Thats the only way for ethiopia to balkanise and everybody in the horn knows it hence the stocking up of weapons and high tensions in the air.

 

[Hilmaam]

Thats the only way for ethiopia to balkanise and everybody in the horn knows it hence the stocking up of weapons and high tensions in the air.

Africa is beholden to West. Ethiopia will not disintegrate because west will ensure it doesnt happen. Every nation in africa has issues. clan or ethnic borders would be disastrous precedence that would spread like wild fire with countries and wars all over place. Even somalia we had no goverment for years and still western world didn't allow somaliland to leave, that was its own country before union. This policy saves ethiopia but also saved us

 

[Idilinaa]

What makes you think that ethiopia will dissolve peacefully, theres no way of that happening internal actors in ethiopia will look past it.

They will be met with 2 options, either peaceful dissolution or outright regional war between federal states.

Is Ethiopia’s disintegration an inevitable and necessary evil?​

Is Ethiopia’s disintegration an inevitable and necessary evil? - Ethiopia Insight

Potential harms of disintegration must be weighed against consequences of holding Ethiopia together by force.

www.ethiopia-insight.com

Ethiopia is at a crossroads and the roads all lead to disintegration. The only real unknown is whether this results from multiple future bloody civil wars or is done through a negotiated orderly breaking apart supported by international actors.

Since the 1980s, the world has seen the birth of new nations. The breakup of the former Yugoslavia was an extraordinarily violent affair that dragged on throughout the 1990s, while Eritrea and South Sudan only became independent following decades of civil war.


The consequences of how these countries were created include simmering tensions in the former Yugoslavia, political instability, intercommunal conflict, and civil wars in Sudan and South Sudan, the Ethio-Eritrean war from 1998-2000, and Eritrea’s devastating participation in Ethiopia’s most recent civil war.


On the other hand, the splitting apart of Czechoslovakia and the Soviet Union was accomplished through a negotiated and peaceful breakaway. Regions like Quebec in Canada have also peacefully held referendums on the question of secession.


The question is whether the Ethiopian regime and its Western allies are willing to avoid a violent disintegration that costs millions of lives, destroys the meager regional economy, destabilizes the region, and leads to chaotic mass migration.


Opting for a peaceful, orderly breaking apart requires that Western powers and others give up their policy of maintaining the political and territorial status quo in Ethiopia. This would necessitate moving away from the policy of supporting this autocratic Ethiopian regime regardless of its epic failures and egregious crimes.


Although the immense obstacles to achieving a peaceful disintegration must be recognized, they are not insurmountable if external actors support such a process