Disintegration of Ethiopia

You forgot the variable that if ethiopia collapses it could cause the worlds largest refugee crisis resulting in millions exiting the country to safer countries, and I doubt ethiopia will allow for a peaceful breakup only way it will happen is through war and even then the west wont allow it to happen, essentailly ethiopia is kept on life support indefinitely by the west and I dont see them cutting that off soon.

Think about it deeper. If their goal is to prevent war, loss of life and a refugee crisis. Then it wouldn't be far fetched to say that people will lay the case both internally and externally for a peaceful dissolution to avoid it.

Its gotten to a point that they see no other way. It will be offered as an ultimatum in the end, that's what i believe will happen.
 
Ethiopia's actions become understandable when you realize they suffer from the "Ahmed Gurey syndrome".


Haggai Erlich coined the term 'Ahmed Gragn Syndrome' to describe the deep-seated Ethiopian suspicions and fears of Islam that arose from the devastation of the war. According to Erlich, many Ethiopians perceive Somalis as descendants of Ahmed Gragn, viewing them as perpetually poised to destabilize Ethiopia.

They got buckbroken so badly by the Imam they wake up in a cold sweat every day over the thought of Somalia being strong.

:russ: :russ:
 

Aseer

A man without a 🐫 won't be praised in afterlife
VIP
Ethiopia's actions become understandable when you realize they suffer from the "Ahmed Gurey syndrome".


Haggai Erlich coined the term 'Ahmed Gragn Syndrome' to describe the deep-seated Ethiopian suspicions and fears of Islam that arose from the devastation of the war. According to Erlich, many Ethiopians perceive Somalis as descendants of Ahmed Gragn, viewing them as perpetually poised to destabilize Ethiopia.

They got buckbroken so badly by the Imam they wake up in a cold sweat every day over the thought of Somalia being strong.

:russ: :russ:
I dont blame them they got traumatised so hard they made artworks.
1735017599791.jpeg
 

Aseer

A man without a 🐫 won't be praised in afterlife
VIP
Think about it deeper. If their goal is to prevent war, loss of life and a refugee crisis. Then it wouldn't be far fetched to say that people will lay the case both internally and externally for a peaceful dissolution to avoid it.

Its gotten to a point that they see no other way. It will be offered as an ultimatum in the end, that's what i believe will happen.
What makes you think that ethiopia will dissolve peacefully, theres no way of that happening internal actors in ethiopia will look past it.
 

Hilmaam

✌️
VIP
What makes you think that ethiopia will dissolve peacefully, theres no way of that happening internal actors in ethiopia will look past it.
it will be massive civil war to determine borders, today its 1 nation and their federal states have constant battles and changing borders
 

Aseer

A man without a 🐫 won't be praised in afterlife
VIP
it will be massive civil war to determine borders, today its 1 nation and their federal states have constant battles and changing borders
Thats the only way for ethiopia to balkanise and everybody in the horn knows it hence the stocking up of weapons and high tensions in the air.
 

Hilmaam

✌️
VIP
Thats the only way for ethiopia to balkanise and everybody in the horn knows it hence the stocking up of weapons and high tensions in the air.
Africa is beholden to West. Ethiopia will not disintegrate because west will ensure it doesnt happen. Every nation in africa has issues. clan or ethnic borders would be disastrous precedence that would spread like wild fire with countries and wars all over place. Even somalia we had no goverment for years and still western world didn't allow somaliland to leave, that was its own country before union. This policy saves ethiopia but also saved us
 
What makes you think that ethiopia will dissolve peacefully, theres no way of that happening internal actors in ethiopia will look past it.

They will be met with 2 options, either peaceful dissolution or outright regional war between federal states.


Is Ethiopia’s disintegration an inevitable and necessary evil?​


Ethiopia is at a crossroads and the roads all lead to disintegration. The only real unknown is whether this results from multiple future bloody civil wars or is done through a negotiated orderly breaking apart supported by international actors.

Since the 1980s, the world has seen the birth of new nations. The breakup of the former Yugoslavia was an extraordinarily violent affair that dragged on throughout the 1990s, while Eritrea and South Sudan only became independent following decades of civil war.


The consequences of how these countries were created include simmering tensions in the former Yugoslavia, political instability, intercommunal conflict, and civil wars in Sudan and South Sudan, the Ethio-Eritrean war from 1998-2000, and Eritrea’s devastating participation in Ethiopia’s most recent civil war.


On the other hand, the splitting apart of Czechoslovakia and the Soviet Union was accomplished through a negotiated and peaceful breakaway. Regions like Quebec in Canada have also peacefully held referendums on the question of secession.


The question is whether the Ethiopian regime and its Western allies are willing to avoid a violent disintegration that costs millions of lives, destroys the meager regional economy, destabilizes the region, and leads to chaotic mass migration.


Opting for a peaceful, orderly breaking apart requires that Western powers and others give up their policy of maintaining the political and territorial status quo in Ethiopia. This would necessitate moving away from the policy of supporting this autocratic Ethiopian regime regardless of its epic failures and egregious crimes.


Although the immense obstacles to achieving a peaceful disintegration must be recognized, they are not insurmountable if external actors support such a process
 
They will be met with 2 options, either peaceful dissolution or outright regional war between federal states.


Is Ethiopia’s disintegration an inevitable and necessary evil?​


Ethiopia is at a crossroads and the roads all lead to disintegration. The only real unknown is whether this results from multiple future bloody civil wars or is done through a negotiated orderly breaking apart supported by international actors.

Since the 1980s, the world has seen the birth of new nations. The breakup of the former Yugoslavia was an extraordinarily violent affair that dragged on throughout the 1990s, while Eritrea and South Sudan only became independent following decades of civil war.


The consequences of how these countries were created include simmering tensions in the former Yugoslavia, political instability, intercommunal conflict, and civil wars in Sudan and South Sudan, the Ethio-Eritrean war from 1998-2000, and Eritrea’s devastating participation in Ethiopia’s most recent civil war.


On the other hand, the splitting apart of Czechoslovakia and the Soviet Union was accomplished through a negotiated and peaceful breakaway. Regions like Quebec in Canada have also peacefully held referendums on the question of secession.


The question is whether the Ethiopian regime and its Western allies are willing to avoid a violent disintegration that costs millions of lives, destroys the meager regional economy, destabilizes the region, and leads to chaotic mass migration.


Opting for a peaceful, orderly breaking apart requires that Western powers and others give up their policy of maintaining the political and territorial status quo in Ethiopia. This would necessitate moving away from the policy of supporting this autocratic Ethiopian regime regardless of its epic failures and egregious crimes.


Although the immense obstacles to achieving a peaceful disintegration must be recognized, they are not insurmountable if external actors support such a process
Im thinking about what would happen t Ogaden region would they join us ? Or be independent
 
I mean look at this . I hope he doesn't but it's such a perfect target that I refuse to belive he can resist the temptation to invade






<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">It&#39;s in Eritrea&#39;s best interest to fully transfer Asseb back to Ethiopia; and then negotiate for the partial ownership of Massawa. <a href="https://t.co/YrwQjOg5fa">pic.twitter.com/YrwQjOg5fa</a></p>&mdash; ግሩም የማነ (@YemaneGirum) <a href="">December 23, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Wow I didn't know this, in the long run that Assab port is strategically better since its right on the bab Al mandeb choke point and ridiculously close to their border. Unfortunately i guess our nonexistent gov and military with federal states seems like an easier target than Eritrea's 300k army.

Anyways, I hope if Ethiopia disintegrates that the people in Somali Galbeed are ready for Oromo incursions and lands grabs in order to make their state of Oromia bigger.
 
Wow I didn't know this, in the long run that Assab port is strategically better since its right on the bab Al mandeb choke point and ridiculously close to their border. Unfortunately i guess our nonexistent gov and military with federal states seems like an easier target than Eritrea's 300k army.

Anyways, I hope if Ethiopia disintegrates that the people in Somali Galbeed are ready for Oromo incursions and lands grabs in order to make their state of Oromia bigger.
Without the Ethiopian state backing qotis up liyu will be raiding Adamas suburbs again.
 
Im thinking about what would happen t Ogaden region would they join us ? Or be independent

It will probably be an independent state first and then join as federal/regional entity later.

That transition will be seemless because it already operates like an independent state and federal state connected to Somalia.
 
It will probably be an independent state first and then join as federal/regional entity later.

That transition will be seemless because it already operates like an independent state and federal state connected to Somalia.
Would they have more power then the fgs
 

seldiboy

Resident Eritrean | Ye's strongest soldier
Ethiopia is Too Big To Fail (2B2F) since the intl community doesn’t want to deal with the headache of it balkanizing.

Hopefully they have another huge civil war. I don’t think they’ll go to war with any of their neighbours anyway. War of words
 

EritreanPost_

Inactive
I mean look at this . I hope he doesn't but it's such a perfect target that I refuse to belive he can resist the temptation to invade






<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">It&#39;s in Eritrea&#39;s best interest to fully transfer Asseb back to Ethiopia; and then negotiate for the partial ownership of Massawa. <a href="https://t.co/YrwQjOg5fa">pic.twitter.com/YrwQjOg5fa</a></p>&mdash; ግሩም የማነ (@YemaneGirum) <a href="">December 23, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Sometimes it’s better to shut up then talk about things you don’t have a clue.
 
Sometimes it’s better to shut up then talk about things you don’t have a clue.

Thats what most political commentators assumed that he would target Assab when Abyi Ahmed first announced that he is want coastal access by force

The fact it hasn't happened. I believe it's an admission that he doesn't have the military capabilities to actually do that , thats why he attempted to do a backdoor deal with Somaliland.
 
I mean look at this . I hope he doesn't but it's such a perfect target that I refuse to belive he can resist the temptation to invade






<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">It&#39;s in Eritrea&#39;s best interest to fully transfer Asseb back to Ethiopia; and then negotiate for the partial ownership of Massawa. <a href="https://t.co/YrwQjOg5fa">pic.twitter.com/YrwQjOg5fa</a></p>&mdash; ግሩም የማነ (@YemaneGirum) <a href="">December 23, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
That’s an Ethiopian larping, it’s their favorite thing to do
 
Sometimes it’s better to shut up then talk about things you don’t have a clue.
No offense my guy i understand why me talking about this woukd leave a bad taste in your mouth. Hell I hope this doesn't happen and im not saying he'd be sucessful if he did attempt it . But if we're looking at it strictly from a realpolitik angle. As well as examining abiys rhetoric in how he sees ethiopia as this "great civilization" and how their lack of sea acess is a "great injustice". Do you really think he would just ignore assab?
 

EritreanPost_

Inactive
Is the twitter person who posted that eritrean or is it just some ethiopian spreading propaganda sxb?
The user is Ethiopian. which Eritrean would say those words.

the video about Ethiopian army occupying Assab is made up video by Ethiopian propagandist with the help of Text to speech/AI.

for example @Khaem spoke about it.

Assab is guarded by +10.000s soldiers.

Assab is hot, you cannot stay their without local support

Assab is home to the Eritrean Air Force Eritrean navy and Eritrean army.

Before you enter Assab there is big mountain near Assab.

Ethiopians cannot occupy south Eritrea. and for this likely scenario Eritrea has sent in reservist soldiers from all over Eritrea to south Eritrea

during the 1998 border war Ethiopian forces were to unable to invade and occupy Assab

plus in any event Ethiopia was to invade and annex Assab, Egypt and all other countries who are part of the Redsea council they would block Ethiopian forces access to the sea

Egypt controls the entire Suez canal
 

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