Ethiopia to secure a port through negotiation or force

[Gaandheri]

 

[bidenkulaha]

Ethiopia doesn’t understand Somalia if they think this is achievable. It doesn’t matter how weak the FGS is (which is gaining in strength and will flex it’s muscles against Ethiopia in the long run), the clan politics in this country won’t allow Ethiopia to have a free port as any clan that builds a port/has access to it will want all the taxes to come from it. And Ethiopia has failed miserably when up against clan dynamics in the past.

Forget the port itself, you have road taxes everywhere which is very lucrative to local clans. Imagine Ethiopia not only building a port in any of the states, then having to escort every single truck driver to Ethiopia with a division of military forces because that’s what it would take.

 

[GaradShabeel]

Ethiopia doesn’t understand Somalia if they think this is achievable. It doesn’t matter how weak the FGS is (which is gaining in strength and will flex it’s muscles against Ethiopia in the long run), the clan politics in this country won’t allow Ethiopia to have a free port as any clan that builds a port/has access to it will want all the taxes to come from it. And Ethiopia has failed miserably when up against clan dynamics in the past.

That's based on the assumption that Ethiopia will xoog their way through a port. As much as they see it as a viable approach, it's not feasible given the circumstances. They will most likely opt through economic domination of ports and take China's route, by subsequently planing to take over at some point in the future in a gradual manner. And thus reduce clan tensions.

Remember how Ethiopia purchased a 19% stake in Berbera port. Well, that was the agreement until Ethiopia failed to live up to the conditions of the agreement, to which SL declared it null and void. The article mentions possibly a similar deal with Eritrea.

Not to forget, the original deal was that SL would only retain 30% (!!!) and the rest would be given to Ethiopia and a majority stake for UAE (DP port). Given how easily Somalis are willing to give up strategic assets/location and without much objection from the public, they will just continue buying us out. Greed and corruption will facilitate this in a smooth manner.

 

[bidenkulaha]

That's based on the assumption that Ethiopia will xoog their way through a port. As much as the see it as a viable approach, it's not feasible given the circumstances. They will most likely opt through economic domination of ports and take China's route, by subsequently planing to take over at some point in the future in a gradual manner. And thus reduce raise clan tensions.

Remember how Ethiopia purchased a 19% stake in Berbera port. Well, that was the agreement until Ethiopia failed to live up to the conditions of the agreement, to which SL declared it null and void. The article mentions a similar deal with Eritrea.

Not to forget, the original deal was that SL would only retain 30% (!!!) and the rest would be given to Ethiopia and UAE (DP port). Given how easily Somalis are willing to give up strategic assets and location and without much objection from the public, they will just continue with buying us out. Greed and corruption will facilitate this in a smooth manner.

It’s pointless. Somalis will just put taxes on the goods at the port and travel. You can own part of the port but it won’t be of much use if the goods are expensive.

It’s probably why they backed out. There was no profit in it. Personally I have to disagree on Somalis and ‘willingless’ to allow foreign businesses to buy them out.

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Till we have laws and strong independent gov, Somalia is the last place Ethiopia will have success in for a port. Much more likely Djibouti but Djibouti’s port is a family business. They even kicked out UAE unlawfully

 

[Arkan]

It sounds like fake news.

Ethiopia announced a significant upgrade to the already existing routes to the ports that serve with a $730 million grant they got from the WB under the HoA Initiative’s Regional Economic Corridor Project 4 days ago.

https://addisstandard.com/news-addis-djibouti-corridor-to-get-730-million-major-upgrade/

Addis-Djibouti Corridor to Get Major Upgrade That is Key to Unlocking Connectivity and Trade for Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa

The Addis-Djibouti corridor, a vital trade route and a lifeline for Ethiopia's 120 million people, will get a significant upgrade thanks to the newly approved Horn of Africa Initiative’s Regional Economic Corridor Project. The project, endowed with a $730 million grant from the International...

www.worldbank.org

 

[GaradShabeel]

It’s pointless. Somalis will just put taxes on the goods at the port and travel. You can own part of the port but it won’t be of much use if the goods are expensive.

It’s probably why they backed out. There was no profit in it. Personally I have to disagree on Somalis and ‘willingless’ to allow foreign businesses to buy them out.

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Till we have laws and strong independent gov, Somalia is the last place Ethiopia will have success in for a port. Much more likely Djibouti but Djibouti’s port is a family business. They even kicked out UAE unlawfully

I don't doubt that civilians and the gov't may resort to 'illicit' approaches if a deal ends up becoming not profitable or backfire, by somehow backtracking out the agreement.

It will boil down if Somalia wants to oblige to international laws and secure any interest a foreign country have gained in a lawful manner. Including any obstacles from the public. Or ignore and face repercussions from beesha caalamka.

 

[bidenkulaha]

I don't doubt that civilians and the gov't may resort to 'illicit' approaches if a deal ends up becoming not profitable or backfire, by somehow backtracking out the agreement.

It will boil down if Somalia wants to oblige to international laws and secure any interest a foreign country have gained in a lawful manner. Including any obstacles from the public. Or ignore and face repercussions from beesha caalamka.

The day we respect rule of law is a long long away.

We’re still fighting over land rights and bribing court officials to sign it off, taking it off legal owners. It’s not in the interest of the gov to fix that as their funders are the biggest beneficiaries

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

 

[abzmuumin1]

Once Baraawe port is built we (SWS) will make negotiations with the Ethiopian goverenment and also build a long road from Baraawe to Addis Ababa for business. We will generate a lot of revenue from this which we will use to develop sws.

 

[DalsanJubiland]

Once Baraawe port is built we (SWS) will make negotiations with the Ethiopian goverenment and also build a long road from Baraawe to Addis Ababa for business. We will generate a lot of revenue from this which we will use to develop sws.

Hopefully will happen soon my Ali Jabarti brother!!!!!!!!

 

[Bowda-dheer]

Once Baraawe port is built we (SWS) will make negotiations with the Ethiopian goverenment and also build a long road from Baraawe to Addis Ababa for business. We will generate a lot of revenue from this which we will use to develop sws.

We will benefit from this godey bakool afdheer is where it will go through. I welcome any development from barawe.

 

[Hotchick12]

They are more likely getting an equal partnership from Eritrea

 

[abzmuumin1]

We will benefit from this godey bakool afdheer is where it will go through. I welcome any development from barawe.

This is the longterm plan. Marka port will be local port while Baraawe port will be used by Ethiopia.

 

[Macawisley]

Ethiopia doesn’t understand Somalia if they think this is achievable. It doesn’t matter how weak the FGS is (which is gaining in strength and will flex it’s muscles against Ethiopia in the long run), the clan politics in this country won’t allow Ethiopia to have a free port as any clan that builds a port/has access to it will want all the taxes to come from it. And Ethiopia has failed miserably when up against clan dynamics in the past.

Forget the port itself, you have road taxes everywhere which is very lucrative to local clans. Imagine Ethiopia not only building a port in any of the states, then having to escort every single truck driver to Ethiopia with a division of military forces because that’s what it would take.

You know, times like this Qaabil is useful

 

[Gerigo'an]

By force he means using Ethiopia's global ties like Europe, U.S, China to pull something off. I don't think Ethiopia will invade a Somali port. Maybe Eritrea? but idk enough about their politics to believe this either.

 

[Man with a garuun]

By force he means using Ethiopia's global ties like Europe, U.S, China to pull something off. I don't think Ethiopia will invade a Somali port. Maybe Eritrea? but idk enough about their politics to believe this either.

Eritrea has 350,000 men in arms with modern guided weapons and helicopter gunships. Eritrea will handily repel any Ethiopian attack. Abyei has his eyes on Somali ports.

 

[Gerigo'an]

Eritrea has 350,000 men in arms with modern guided weapons and helicopter gunships. Eritrea will handily repel any Ethiopian attack. Abyei has his eyes on Somali ports.

He will take it without any force. Somali people have lost their pride and love for their country. That only comes out when they are fighting another clan.

 

[SamaaleCushite]

He will take it without any force. Somali people have lost their pride and love for their country. That only comes out when they are fighting another clan.

literal sandal wearing teenagers inflicted 20 - 30k casualties on heavily armed xabash back in 06 how do u think attacking an entire clan's source of income and sustenance will go. i doubt even the landers will put up with this. They may try merca or barawe but even then it will fail.

 

[Gerigo'an]

literal sandal wearing teenagers inflicted 20 - 30k casualties on heavily armed xabash back in 06 how do u think attacking an entire clan's source of income and sustenance will go. i doubt even the landers will put up with this. They may try merca or barawe but even then it will fail.

Ethiopia vs a Somali clan? comon.
Ethiopia has drones now which they didn't in 2006.

 

[Yazi]

literal sandal wearing teenagers inflicted 20 - 30k casualties on heavily armed xabash back in 06 how do u think attacking an entire clan's source of income and sustenance will go. i doubt even the landers will put up with this. They may try merca or barawe but even then it will fail.

They still occupied Mogadishu despite the high number of casualties and only driven out by Al Shabaab guerrilla warfare. Not a single clan militia can stand up to Ethiopia if it indeed invades their region