Ethiopia to secure a port through negotiation or force

[Hilmaam]

Lol Kenya is way weaker than Ethiopia and had control of kismayo port for years. Ethiopia will take port they want in weeks

 

[Arkan]

Lol Kenya is way weaker than Ethiopia and had control of kismayo port for years. Ethiopia will take port they want in weeks

Some folks would hand their port to Ethiopia on a platter; do you think they'd even risk putting up a fight?

Under Abiys regime, Ethiopia doesn't even have to forcefully take over Somali ports. Whatever clan runs the port city would accept it to gain an upper hand over their clan rivals. Meles knew better about Somali clan rivalries and would've enticed whichever clan that runs the said port city to work with him.

 

[Hilmaam]

Some folks would hand their port to Ethiopia on a platter; do you think they'd even risk putting up a fight?

Under Abiys regime, Ethiopia doesn't even have to forcefully take over Somali ports. Whatever clan runs the port city would accept it to gain an upper hand over their clan rivals. Meles knew better about Somali clan rivalries and would've enticed whichever clan that runs the said port city to work with him.

Agree. If their isn’t deal signed and alignment on fees it will be race to bottom for business and Ethiopia will be only winner. Fgs is trying but states not cooperating and all this rivalries Ethiopia will pit us against each other

 

[SamaaleCushite]

They still occupied Mogadishu despite the high number of casualties and only driven out by Al Shabaab guerrilla warfare. Not a single clan militia can stand up to Ethiopia if it indeed invades their region

they needed massive amounts of military suport and hardware from the US tho. Even if they take a port lets say.. who will defend it from angry locals? Remember the ogaden pipeline of 2007

 

[Nin123]

Eritrea has 350,000 men in arms with modern guided weapons and helicopter gunships. Eritrea will handily repel any Ethiopian attack. Abyei has his eyes on Somali ports.

Ethiopia is eyeing zila port they may try to convince samaroon to join them and leave isaaqland.

 

[killerxsmoke]

If Ethiopia attacks somalia for a port I can 100% guarantee that Egypt will join in and help us, they will definitely use this moment to attack the dam without facing any repercussion

 

[Bari🐍]

Give them Hobyo. Then we might actually see some construction of the fabled port.

 

[Pastoralist]

Ethiopia in current day would manhandle anything somalia could throw at it. Sue me if I’m wrong. Even the TPLF were stronger than a Somali gobol. The same TPLF that had somalia with an iron fist got flattened by ethiopia. puntland and the triangle have potential but their constraints of being FMS hold them back.

The dumpster of an administration sitting in xamar has no ambition and are spineless so they may end up giving up ports out of fear.

Somalia had the gorgor+Nisa combo which should have been mass produced but is now squandered.

 

[Macawisley]

dumpster of an administration sitting in xamar has no ambition and are spineless so they may end up giving up ports out of fear.

Tbh, knowing Garguurte very well, he does not like Ethiopia at all and there’s more chance of UAE having a port inside Somalia than Ethiopia.

All Somalis agree on keeping Ethiopia out of our waters and coastline. It was the very reason we supported Eriterian independence.

 

[Aurelian]

Lol Kenya is way weaker than Ethiopia and had control of kismayo port for years. Ethiopia will take port they want in weeks

Ethiopia had somali leaders come and go based on ethiopia's wishes. You couldn't see somali leaders in one room in 2010's or 2000's in Somalia or anywhere else by their own, but they would gather in Adisababa if Ethiopia ordered so.

So yes, if Ethiopia wished to have port, they will get. Especially if South Somalia become more secure and stable.

 

[Hilmaam]

Ethiopia had somali leaders come and go based on ethiopia's wishes. You couldn't see somali leaders in one room in 2010's or 2000's in Somalia or anywhere else by their own, but they would gather in Adisababa if Ethiopia ordered so.

So yes, if Ethiopia wished to have port, they will get. Especially if South Somalia become more secure and stable.

It’s suspicious how they also revived navy in 2019

 

[Macawisley]

Lol Kenya is way weaker than Ethiopia and had control of kismayo port for years. Ethiopia will take port they want in weeks

Kenya does not control Kismayo port it was controlled by Ogaden militias. Yes kenya supported the Madoobe régime but the port is not in Kenyan hands and never has been. Let’s be realistic guys and not emotional.

It was MX controlled and now it’s OG controlled.

 

[Pastoralist]

Tbh, knowing Garguurte very well, he does not like Ethiopia at all and there’s more chance of UAE having a port inside Somalia than Ethiopia.

All Somalis agree on keeping Ethiopia out of our waters and coastline. It was the very reason we supported Eriterian independence.

He feels that way but he doesn’t show it in his actions which weaken the country. Why drive a wedge into the development of our security sector when we have such cadow as a Neighbor?

UAE is an cadow aswell. Help from them against Ethiopia would come with concessions that’d make giving Ethiopia a port cute in comparison.

 

[Yazi]

they needed massive amounts of military suport and hardware from the US tho. Even if they take a port lets say.. who will defend it from angry locals? Remember the ogaden pipeline of 2007

What hardware? They invaded Mogadishu without an air force. Cold war era tanks and artillery, not a single plane was involved. ICU technicals were no match for Ethiopian army they fled to Eritrea. ONLF was decimated in 2007, the region was dealt with like a military state of emergency, Zenawi letter of death burning villages and genociding the civilian inhabitants. They still went on with oil explorations.

 

[Hilmaam]

Kenya says ready to hand over control of Somali port city

Kenya said on Tuesday it was ready to hand control of the strategic Somali port city of Kismayu to a recognised leader, but warned that a chaotic exit would embolden al Qaeda-linked insurgents in southern Somalia.

www.reuters.com

 

[SamaaleCushite]

What hardware? They invaded Mogadishu without an air force. Cold war era tanks and artillery, not a single plane was involved. ICU technicals were no match for Ethiopian army they fled to Eritrea. ONLF was decimated in 2007, the region was dealt with like a military state of emergency, Zenawi letter of death burning villages and genociding the civilian inhabitants. They still went on with oil explorations.

2007 they lost many chinese surveyors. THe aftermath was a massacre of somalis but the chinese decided not to do the oil exploration until stability which was only achieved with a more favorable deal.

All ill say sxb is dont unerestimate somalis if youre demoralized and your spirit is broken by a mere 3 decades of humiliation then you should stop trying to dissuade others for youre a weakling.

 

[Cartan Boos]

 

[Pastoralist]

we have members on here that brag about SNA being put into a “meat grinder”. Our national army that is the only thing tying the country together. There’s government officials that shirkool our best generals and military officers for AS. Considering this whichever route Ethiopia takes they’d have it easy.

a government that works with AS and is puppet to foreign cadow would be annexed. This government would capitulate immediately if they don’t get help from Uncle Sam or it’s “allies” that also want destabilization.

 

[GemState]

Ethiopia doesn’t understand Somalia if they think this is achievable. It doesn’t matter how weak the FGS is (which is gaining in strength and will flex it’s muscles against Ethiopia in the long run), the clan politics in this country won’t allow Ethiopia to have a free port as any clan that builds a port/has access to it will want all the taxes to come from it. And Ethiopia has failed miserably when up against clan dynamics in the past.

Forget the port itself, you have road taxes everywhere which is very lucrative to local clans. Imagine Ethiopia not only building a port in any of the states, then having to escort every single truck driver to Ethiopia with a division of military forces because that’s what it would take.

The ROI wouldn't be worth it.

 

[Abba Sadacha]

1. Keep in mind that martin plaut, is a well known tplf advocate/cadre, so take what he says with a planet-earth sized grain of salt.

2. If true, though, no doubt, Abiy is trying to deflect attention away from his conflict with some Amara's, and trying to get their unity behind him to ''secure a port,'' which many amara's always clamored about in the past-not sure if they still feel this way, but who knows.