One of the most hardcore former Kulmiye mouthpieces (Xildhibaan Dheeg) joins WADANI

[TheMadMullah]

Bohol wadani lost more important and hardliner lol, siciid cilmi roble aka sali calaa was a prominent member of wadani and now has joined qudhmiye

 

[Bohol]

Bohol wadani lost more important and hardliner lol, siciid cilmi roble aka sali calaa was a prominent member of wadani and now has joined qudhmiye

Nah Xildhibaan Dheeg is more important since he made his entire sub clan (Mohamed Daud of Cidagale) join WADANI. Now that is thousands of additional votes.

 

[Gacanyare]

Poor Faysal, Guyoobe used to be part of UCID's core supporter base.

 

[Bohol]

Poor Faysal, Guyoobe used to be part of UCID's core supporter base.

Faysal has no chance anyway everyone knows that. So it is better to combine majority of the former UCID votes with WADANI to deliver a decisive victory.

 

[Gacanyare]

Faysal has no chance anyway everyone knows that. So it is better to combine majority of the former UCID votes with WADANI to deliver a decisive victory.

That is true, though Faysal is the better candidate over Cirro.

Wadani is still facing a HA-HJ alliance that is now at full strength. Banking on segments of Gadabursi, Ciidagale, and Arap won't be enough to stop Kulmiye. Wadani missed an opportunity to break the alliance by reaching out to HJ who have many grievances with Siilaanyo's administration (lack of development in the East, clans like Solomadow having their hands tied behind their backs while the govt wooes Dhulbahante, Ceelgarde fiasco etc). Wadani might be able to learn from this and form a formidable opposition next election.

 

[Bohol]

That is true, though Faysal is the better candidate over Cirro.

Wadani is still facing a HA-HJ alliance that is now at full strength. Banking on segments of Gadabursi, Ciidagale, and Arap won't be enough to stop Kulmiye. Wadani missed an opportunity to break the alliance by reaching out to HJ who have many grievances with Siilaanyo's administration (lack of development in the East, clans like Solomadow having their hands tied behind their backs while the govt wooes Dhulbahante, Ceelgarde fiasco etc). Wadani might be able to learn from this and form a formidable opposition next election.

It is a numbers game sxb. Garhajis are larger than Habar Awal and Gadabursi + Arap are larger than HJ. Then you have the other smaller
communities who are already part of WADANI since they never get ministers or positions from Kulmiye. We already know majority of Gadabursi will vote for WADANI same goes for Arap. The deciding factor is the Cidagale votes that is why Cirro spends a lot of time in South Hargeisa .

 

[Madaxkuti]

Yh my entire sub clan support him as well they held a shirr in ambassador

 

[Gacanyare]

It is a numbers game sxb. Garhajis are larger than Habar Awal and Gadabursi + Arap are larger than HJ. Then you have the other smaller
communities who are already part of WADANI since they never get ministers or positions from Kulmiye. We already know majority of Gadabursi will vote for WADANI same goes for Arap. The deciding factor is the Cidagale votes.

You don't have the entirety of neither Garxajis or Gadabursi, while Kulmiye have the entirety of HA and HJ. There's also smaller tribes in the Kulmiye camp as well like Dhulos (Bahararsame & Jamac Siyaad), Ayuub, Toljeclo, Sanbuur, Cimraan etc.

A game changer would be Xirsi being able to whip up considerable support from his Axmed Faarax subclan (the laandheers of HJ)

 

[Bohol]

Yh my entire sub clan support him as well they held a shirr in ambassador

Do Baha Dhamaal also live in Ethiopia?

 

[Bohol]

You don't have the entirety of neither Garxajis or Gadabursi, while Kulmiye have the entirety of HA and HJ. There's also smaller tribes in the Kulmiye camp as well like Dhulos (Bahararsame & Jamac Siyaad), Ayuub, Toljeclo, Sanbuur, Cimraan etc.

A game changer would be Xirsi being able to whip up considerable support from his Axmed Faarax (the laandheers of HJ)

The thing is you overestimate HA (Sacad Muuse) and HJ. Together they only make up
30% of Somaliland population. Now you can throw in Cisse Muuse into your pool but
CM is not large. Cidagale and Arap are both larger than them so it is a checkmate just
like back in 1960 where the HJ & SM party (NUF) got destroyed badly. Now WADANI
(SNL) instead of Cisse Muuse we have majority of Gadabursi who are a big clan in Sland.

 

[Mokillem]

Cant wait till wadani wins, good luck guys.

If wadani doesn't win ,its rigged.

 

[Gacanyare]

The thing is you overestimate HA (Sacad Muuse) and HJ. Together they only make up
25% of Somaliland population. Now you can through in Cisse Muuse into the pool but
CM is not large. Cidagale and Arap are both larger than them so it is a checkmate just
like back in 1960 where the HJ & SM party (NUF) got destroyed badly. Now WADANI
(SNL) instead of Cisse Muuse we have majority of Gadabursi who are a big clan in Sland.

You're ignoring (willfully?) an important part in all this. It's not about the size of each clan, it's about how much support from each clan that matters.

I've actually crunched the numbers from each voting district based on the voter registration. I can show them to you if you want.

 

[Madaxkuti]

Do Baha Dhamaal also live in Ethiopia?

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[Gacanyare]

like how guyoobe is an alliance of different sub clans.

Guyoobe isn't an alliance. It just branches off at the top

 

[Madaxkuti]

Guyoobe isn't an alliance. It just branches off at the top

OH I meant gashaanbuur

 

[Bohol]

You're ignoring (willfully?) an important part in all this. It's not about the size of each clan, it's about how much support from each clan that matters.

I've actually crunched the numbers from each voting district based on the voter registration. I can show them to you if you want.

The facts are only SM & HJ and some CM will be voting majority for Kulmiye. While
WADANI has the rest on their side unless you foolishly think majority of Gadabursi,
Arap and Cidagale would vote for Kulmiye. If we are talking about parties then
the votes of UMADDA + WADANI, Xaqsoor and majority of UCID will be going to WADANI.
You remind me of one of the kids here who was arguing with me that Cidagale won't
vote WADANI but vote for Kulmiye.

 

[Gacanyare]

The facts are only SM & HJ and some CM will be voting majority for Kulmiye. While
WADANI has the rest on their side unless you foolishly think majority of Gadabursi,
Arap and Cidagale would vote for Kulmiye.

Some CM? Your last saving grace Siciid "Salaa Calee" Cilmi Rooble officially denounced Wadani today. The few CM votes you will get will be from guys who lost their jobs at the port due to incompetence.

Between Gadabursi, Arap, and Ciidagale, only the Arap will likely give full support to Wadani. So long as UCID is around you will not get the entire Ciidagale vote, and so long as Kulmiye keeps Saylici as VP you will not get the entire Gadabursi vote either. Keep in mind, Riyaale only got 70% in Awdal in 2010. Do you really think a non-Gadabursi will be able to replicate these results? And if so, will it be enough to overcome the large gains Kulmiye has in Maroodi Jeex, Saaxil and Sool?

 

[Bohol]

@Gacanyare You're a novice. What makes you think all CM will vote for Kulmiye (after it humiliated its candidate Jamal Ali Hussien)?
majority of Cidagale will be voting for WADANI and that is enough damage for Kulmiye. As for Awdal communities do you realize
that 70% is Makahiil? here is the grand Suldaan of Awdal (Suldaan Salebaan Ismaacil) saying it like it is we are all WADANI. You
must be delusional to argue about Awdal with me everyone knows high majority of the Awdal votes will go to WADANI. Majority of Gadabursi will vote for WADANI just like majority of HY voted for Dahir Riyaale.

 

[Madaxkuti]

Guyoobe isn't an alliance. It just branches off at the top

Are you a sand dweller

 

[Foreman]

The facts are only SM & HJ and some CM will be voting majority for Kulmiye. While
WADANI has the rest on their side unless you foolishly think majority of Gadabursi,
Arap and Cidagale would vote for Kulmiye. If we are talking about parties then
the votes of UMADDA + WADANI, Xaqsoor and majority of UCID will be going to WADANI.
You remind me of one of the kids here who was arguing with me that Cidagale won't
vote WADANI but vote for Kulmiye.

Gadabursi votes will be split, CG will vote for UCID and at best will split. That leaves you with HY and Arap not enough to win against Kulmiye vast alliance.