One of the most hardcore former Kulmiye mouthpieces (Xildhibaan Dheeg) joins WADANI

[Gacanyare]

@Gacanyare You're a novice. What makes you think all CM will vote for Kulmiye (after it humiliated its candidate Jamal Ali Hussien)?
majority of Cidagale will be voting for WADANI and that is enough damage for Kulmiye. As for Awdal communities do you realize
that 70% is Makahiil? here is the grand Suldaan of Awdal (Suldaan Salebaan Ismaacil) saying it like it is we are all WADANI. You
must be delusional to argue about Awdal with me everyone knows high majority of the Awdal votes will go to WADANI. Majority of Gadabursi will vote for WADANI just like majority of HY voted for Dahir Riyaale.

It's hard to imagine Wadani getting above 65% in Awdal. But let's say they get 70% like Riyaale did in 2010, is it enough to stop Kulmiye who are ahead significantly in Maroodi Jeex, Saaxil and Sool?

There's no reason for CM to vote for Wadani. All of their politicians jumped ship to Kulmiye. The last one still in Wadani is that short tempered Welsh lady I forgot her name.

 

[Gacanyare]

Are you a sand dweller

Perhaps

 

[Foreman]

@Gacanyare you're reasonable in your assessment WADANI have nothing to offer to Ciidagale and Gadabursi and thus will not amass their support as unified block. Wishful thinking.

 

[Bohol]

Gadabursi votes will be split, CG will vote for UCID and at best will split. That leaves you with HY and Arap not enough to win against Kulmiye vast alliance.

Wishful thinking.

 

[Gacanyare]

@Gacanyare you're reasonable in your assessment WADANI have nothing to offer to Ciidagale and Gadabursi and thus will not upport the party as unified block.

Out of the three, Wadani has the most to offer to Ciidagale actually.

 

[Bohol]

It's hard to imagine Wadani getting above 65% in Awdal. But let's say they get 70% like Riyaale did in 2010, is it enough to stop Kulmiye who are ahead significantly in Maroodi Jeex, Saaxil and Sool?

There's no reason for CM to vote for Wadani. All of their politicians jumped ship to Kulmiye. The last one still in Wadani is that short tempered Welsh lady I forgot her name.

You contradict yourself. How can Kulmiye be ahead in Maroodijeex when you admitted Arap will be voting for WADANI. Arap + HY are larger than SM in Hargeisa district ? + a large chunk of the Cidagale. That is 70% for WADANI. You have to understand this is not the Kulmiye of 2003 & 2010. SM are alone in Hargeisa this time, no other community will bother to vote for Kulmiye.

 

[Cotton Eyed Joe]

@Bohol what are the latest polls in the presidential election sxb

 

[Foreman]

Out of the three, Wadani has the most to offer to Ciidagale actually.

Go on

 

[Bohol]

@Bohol what are the latest polls in the presidential election sxb

Kulmiye is losing badly so far.

 

[Gacanyare]

You're contradict yourself. How can Kulmiye be ahead in Maroodijeex when you admitted Arap will be voting for WADANI. Arap + HY
are larger than SM in Hargeisa district ? a large chunk of the Cidagale. That is 70% for WADANI.

Kulmiye will win a landslide in Gabiley.

Within Hargeisa, north of the Doox will almost be solidly Kulmiye with some Wadani support in New Hargeisa (Biixi and Wasiir Farxaan Haybe have been campaigning heavily in Isxaaq deegaans). South of the Doox will be split between Wadani and UCID.

Baligubadle will come through for Wadani, Salaxley at best will be 45% Wadani.

Overall, Kulmiye will edge Maroodi Jeex with around 50%. Not a big margin percentage wise, but in sheer numbers will put Kulmiye ahead

 

[Cotton Eyed Joe]

Kulmiye is losing badly so far.

it doesn't surprise me, it's very hard for incumbents to stay in power after almost 2 terms and several extensions

 

[Gacanyare]

Go on

Faysal has no plans to enrich his Ciidagale tribe. Kulmiye is appeasing way too many other tribes to notice them. That leaves Wadani who have been trying to work a Garxajis alliance. In the event that's Wadani wins, Ciidagale will be well represented

 

[Bohol]

Kulmiye will win a landslide in Gabiley.
Within Hargeisa, north of the Doox will almost be solidly Kulmiye with some Wadani support in New Hargeisa (Biixi and Wasiir Farxaan Haybe have been campaigning heavily in Isxaaq deegaans). South of the Doox will be split between Wadani and UCID.

Baligubadle will come through for Wadani, Salaxley at best will be 45% Wadani.

Overall, Kulmiye will edge Maroodi Jeex with around 50%. Not a big margin percentage, but in sheer numbers will put Kulmiye ahead

Gabiley votes will be cancelled out by the Arap. Then you have the HY + majority of the Cidagale votes in Hargeisa vs SM we both know which is larger. WADANI will be getting the majority of the votes in Maroodijeex. HY and Cidagale votes are almost double of the Sacad Muuse in Hargeisa district. The Isaxaaq Suldaan himself admitted he has 70,000 voters ready in Cadaadley and Sabawanaag districts for WADANI.

 

[Foreman]

Faysal has no plans to enrich his Ciidagale tribe. Kulmiye is appeasing way too many other tribes to notice them. That leaves Wadani who have been trying to work a Garxajis alliance. In the event that's Wadani wins, Ciidagale will be well represented

Interesting. Have the Landheers of Ciidagale picked a side yet or they are still in the negotiation phase?

 

[Gacanyare]

Gabiley votes will be cancelled out by the Arap. Then you have the HY + majority of the Cidagale votes in Hargeisa vs SM we both which
is larger. WADANI will be getting the majority of the votes in Maroodijeex.

Gabiley registered 58,000 voters. Baligubadle registered around 15,000. It's hard to determine clan percentages in Hargeisa as it has become more diverse recently, but Kulmiye will get around 45-50% in Hargeisa which is about 100,000 voters.

 

[Gacanyare]

Interesting. Have the Landheers of Ciidagale picked a side yet or they are still in the negotiation phase?

Not sure to be honest

 

[Foreman]

I reckon Kulmiye's broad cross-country alliance will come on top even with the split of M/jeex.

 

[Bohol]

Gabiley registered 58,000 voters. Baligubadle registered around 15,000. It's hard to determine clan percentages in Hargeisa as it has become more diverse recently, but Kulmiye will get around 45-50% in Hargeisa which is about 100,000 voters.

If you want to know Arap votes check out how many votes Xaqsoor got in Hargeisa.



UMADDA (HY) + WADDANI (HY) got around 26.69% in Maroodijeex + Xaqsoor (Arap) = 41.63% . As you can see here
Kulmiye (26.96%) + Dalsan (7.81%) + Rays (6.06%) =40.83% . So you see HY & Arap votes alone outnumber Kulmiye votes
in Maroodijeex nevermind adding the Cidagale votes which will be their grave in Maroodijeex.

 

[Gacanyare]

If you want to know Arap votes check out how many votes Xaqsoor got in Hargeisa.



UMADDA (HY) + WADDANI (HY) got around 26.69% in Maroodijeex + Xaqsoor (Arap) = 41.63% . As you can see here
Kulmiye (26.96%) + Dalsan (7.81%) + Rays (6.06%) =40.83% . So you see HY & Arap votes alone outnumber Kulmiye votes
in Maroodijeex nevermind adding the Cidagale votes which will be their grave in Maroodijeex.

Interesting numbers. Both Hargeisa and Burco will be tightly contested, but I still believe Hargeisa will go Kulmiye while Burco goes to Wadani. SM (+ Ayuub) and Arap are the only clans in Hargeisa rallying under one banner, while Isxaaq and Ciidagale have mixed loyalties. I could be wrong, however. We can only wait til November

 

[Bohol]

@Gacanyare nah sxb Isaxaaq + the other HY in Hargeisa district have always been strong UDUB supporters and now shifted to WADANI.


All the HY MPs in the Hargeisa area also came out from two parties (WADANI and UMADDA)


WADDANI
1.Maxamed Warsame Caalin Timacadde 5315 (Habaryonis /Isaxaq/Cabdale)
2.C/qani Yuusuf Cabdillaahi Ina Macalin 2969 (Habaryonis /Isaxaq/Cabdale)
3.C/laahi Cali Adan Yuusuf (Cabbaas) 2902 (Habaryonis /Isaxaq/habar kaliil)
4.C/risaaq Faarax Xassan (Qawdhan) 2621 (Habaryonis /Isaxaq/Qasin)


UMADDA
5.Cali Axmed Haybe Nuur 3786 (Habaryonis /Isaxaq/Cabdale)
6.Khaalid cabdi cawad abyan 2949 (Habaryonis /Sugule)
7.Mustafe cismaan daahir 2861 (Habaryonis /Isaxaq/Qaasin)