One of the most hardcore former Kulmiye mouthpieces (Xildhibaan Dheeg) joins WADANI

[Foreman]

Interesting numbers. Both Hargeisa and Burco will be tightly contested, but I still believe Hargeisa will go Kulmiye while Burco goes to Wadani. SM (+ Ayuub) and Arap are the only clans in Hargeisa rallying under one banner, while Isxaaq and Ciidagale have mixed loyalties. I could be wrong, however. We can only wait til November

Burco is Kulmiye stronghold. Don't mind Xersi Gaab he's a no body the Axmed Faraax will deliver Kulmiye like always.

 

[Gacanyare]

@Gacanyare nah sxb Isaxaaq + the other HY in Hargeisa district have always been strong UDUB supporters and now shifted to WADANI.


All the HY MPs in the Hargeisa area also came out from two parties (WADANI and UMADDA)


WADDANI
1.Maxamed Warsame Caalin Timacadde 5315 (Habaryonis /Isaxaq/Cabdale)
2.C/qani Yuusuf Cabdillaahi Ina Macalin 2969 (Habaryonis /Isaxaq/Cabdale)
3.C/laahi Cali Adan Yuusuf (Cabbaas) 2902 (Habaryonis /Isaxaq/habar kaliil)
4.C/risaaq Faarax Xassan (Qawdhan) 2621 (Habaryonis /Isaxaq/Qasin)


UMADDA
5.Cali Axmed Haybe Nuur 3786 (Habaryonis /Isaxaq/Cabdale)
6.Khaalid cabdi cawad abyan 2949 (Habaryonis /Sugule)
7.Mustafe cismaan daahir 2861 (Habaryonis /Isaxaq/Qaasin)

Municipal elections are different from national elections though. In the 2012, Isxaaq came out with many candidates in Wadani and Umada so it made sense for them to vote for those two parties.

On the national stage it's a bit different. Over the past 7 years Isxaaq have eaten good, and there was not one point in the Silaanyo administration where they did not have a cabinet minister. In a Wadani government they would be in competition with Muuse and Ismaaciil Carre (latter being the McLandheers of HY). In a Kulmiye govt, their position would not be compromised.

Of course many Isxaaq will vote for Wadani out of HYnimo, but it's not a solid voting bloc which works in Kulmiye's favour

 

[Gacanyare]

Burco is Kulmiye stronghold. Don't mind Xersi Gaab he's a no body the Axmed Faraax will deliver Kulmiye like always.

HY in Burco will vote solidly for Wadani. It will be tight with a narrow margin, but Wadani still has the upper hand.

 

[Bohol]

As for Togdheer it will be like WADANI + UMMADA + UCID + Xaqsoor = 51.7% of the votes
in Togdheer.

 

[Bohol]

Municipal elections are different from national elections though. In the 2012, Isxaaq came out with many candidates in Wadani and Umada so it made sense for them to vote for those two parties.

On the national stage it's a bit different. Over the past 7 years Isxaaq have eaten good, and there was not one point in the Silaanyo administration where they did not have a cabinet minister. In a Wadani government they would be in competition with Muuse and Ismaaciil Carre (latter being the McLandheers of HY). In a Kulmiye govt, their position would not be compromised.

Of course many Isxaaq will vote for Wadani out of HYnimo, but it's not a solid voting bloc which works in Kulmiye's favour

If WADANI has Arap and Cidagale on their side the Isaxaaq is easy job they will go
wherever the other HY go just like back in UDUB days. They don't care about cabinet
positions but real development in their areas. In the 7 years Kulmiye was here they did
nothing for Cadaadley and Sabawanaag districts.

 

[Gacanyare]

As for Togdheer it will be like WADANI + UMMADA + UCID + Xaqsoor = 51.7% of the votes
in Togdheer.

I think it will be between 45-50% overall in Togdheer for Wadani. Oodweyne had strange results in 2010, was a three way split with UCID slightly ahead

 

[Gacanyare]

If WADANI has Arap and Cidagale on their side the Isaxaaq is easy job they will go wherever the
other HY go just like back in UDUB days. They don't care about cabinet positions but real development in their areas. In the 7 years Kulmiye was here they did nothing for Cadaadley and Sabawanaag districts.

They would be a main beneficiary in the proposed Berbera corridor. Land prices along the road to Berbera have skyrocketed

 

[Bohol]

I think it will be between 45-50% overall in Togdheer for Wadani. Oodweyne had strange results in 2010, was a three way split with UCID slightly ahead

Yes but in 2010 Cirro wasn't running. It is a different story now no HY is going to waste their votes on Kulmiye.

 

[Foreman]

I think it will be between 45-50% overall in Togdheer for Wadani. Oodweyne had strange results in 2010, was a three way split with UCID slightly ahead

In 2010 Kulmiye had strong candidates campaigning on their behalf in Oodweyne which allowed them to split the vote. Burco and Buuhoodle districts will deliver Kulmiye.

 

[Bohol]

They would be a main beneficiary in the proposed Berbera corridor. Land prices along the road to Berbera have skyrocketed

Their vote is very important to WADANI. I wonder though when did Isaxaaq get so large. The people registered in Sabawanaag and Cadaadley districts number more than the entire Gabiley region.

Suldaan Xirey says 70,000 registered in their areas (that is Isaxaaq alone) and not other HY in Hargeisa district.

July 8, 2017

"Suldaanka Guud ee beesha Bariga Hargeysa Suldaan Yuusuf Muxumed Xiirey oo ugu horayn madasha ka hadlay ayaa waxa uu xusay muhiimada ay leedahay in dadweynaha degan deeganada Beeshiisu degto oo aad u balaadhani ay qaataan kaadhadhka diwaangalinta oo uu Suldaanku xusay inay iska diwaangaliyeen tiro aad u badan oo ah 70,000 todobaaan kun oo cod oo u dhiganta ama ka badan dadka iska diwaangaliyey qaar kamida Lixda Gobol ee waa weyn ee Somaliland"

http://burcoonline.com/articles/629...irey-La-yeeshay-BeeshiisaUjeedada-Uu-Daaranaa

 

[Hassan Garguute Buldanana]

What do guys use for voting and what measures are there to stop voting fraud?

 

[Gacanyare]

In 2010 Kulmiye had strong candidates campaigning on their behalf in Oodweyne which allowed them to split the vote. Burco and Buuhoodle district will deliver Kulmiye.

Buuhoodle will come through for Kulmiye; but again HY, especially reer Burco HY, are hungry for the kursi

Their vote is very important to WADANI. I wonder though when did Isaxaaq get so large. The people registered in Sabawanaag and Cadaadley districts number more than the entire Gabiley region.

Suldaan Xirey says 70,000 registered in their areas (that is Isaxaaq alone) and not other HY in Hargeisa district.

July 8, 2017

"Suldaanka Guud ee beesha Bariga Hargeysa Suldaan Yuusuf Muxumed Xiirey oo ugu horayn madasha ka hadlay ayaa waxa uu xusay muhiimada ay leedahay in dadweynaha degan deeganada Beeshiisu degto oo aad u balaadhani ay qaataan kaadhadhka diwaangalinta oo uu Suldaanku xusay inay iska diwaangaliyeen tiro aad u badan oo ah 70,000 todobaaan kun oo cod oo u dhiganta ama ka badan dadka iska diwaangaliyey qaar kamida Lixda Gobol ee waa weyn ee Somaliland"

http://burcoonline.com/articles/629...irey-La-yeeshay-BeeshiisaUjeedada-Uu-Daaranaa

Salaadiin can be notoriously fickle in their party support. You can see Suldaan Maxamed Cabdiqaadir who's flip flopping between Kulmiye and Wadani on an almost weekly basis

You could be right though, Isxaaq ends up voting entirely for Wadani. But they've eaten good in Kulmiye and it's hard to see them give up their comfortable position

 

[Gacanyare]

What do guys use for voting and what measures are there to stop voting fraud?

Biometric voting. Everyone who registered for this elections had to get iris scans to prevent double voting

 

[Bohol]

In 2010 Kulmiye had strong candidates campaigning on their behalf in Oodweyne which allowed them to split the vote. Burco and Buuhoodle districts will deliver Kulmiye.

Few Solomadow does not = Buhoodle district lol. Solomadow always voted for Kulmiye so there
is nothing new just like the Sacad Yonis of Xudun district will be voting for WADANI.

 

[Foreman]

Buuhoodle will come through for Kulmiye; but again HY, especially reer Burco HY, are hungry for the kursi

Nope HJ dominate Burco district. As you can see majority of Burco ditrict is found east of the city.

https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefw...ASom_Administrative_Map_Togdheer_Burco_A3.pdf

 

[Bohol]

Nope HJ dominate Burco district. As you can see majority of Burco ditrict is found east of the city.

https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefw...ASom_Administrative_Map_Togdheer_Burco_A3.pdf

Kulmiye will lose Togdheer.

 

[Foreman]

Few Solomadow does not = Buhoodle district lol. Solomadow always voted for Kulmiye so there
is nothing new just like the Sacad Yonis of Xudun district will be voting for WADANI.

7,000 more votes to Kulmiye in Togdheer. You can forget about Sool though.

 

[Bohol]

7,000 more votes to Kulmiye in Togdheer. You can forget about Sool though.

There will not be "reer sool" just few sub clans that might vote in election day or not.

 

[Gacanyare]

Nope HJ dominate Burco district. As you can see majority of Burco ditrict is found east of the city.

https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefw...ASom_Administrative_Map_Togdheer_Burco_A3.pdf

There will not be "reer sool" just few sub clans that might vote in election day or not.

30,000 registered in Caynaba. Assuming a 50% turnout in Las Anod, that another 15k. Kulmiye will have their largest margin of victory in Sool

 

[Von]

"Kulmiye is the best bet for Somaliland since Wadani is seeking unification with Somalia and are under the influence of Farmajo administration." - @ MarxKarl
Is it true that Wadani is pro-Somalia