"Otherwise we'll have to go to war" - Somaliland FM
- Thread starter merka
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The drought is a temporary problem. What will happen 5 years, 10 years from now? The status quo will not remain peaceful forever.
Somalia will not enter talks with Somaliland without pressure from the international community. I'm guessing Somaliland is hoping their threats of conflict will force the two sides to come to the table and solve this peacefully.
There will be talks in the future in sha allah and Somaliland will rejoin Somalia peacefully.
That irirnimo card won't work if they really believe waging war against Somalia is gonna work, all it would do is cause both sides grief especially SLanders, it's pointlessIf hawiye didn't help them and continue to support them out of irirnimo do you think somaliland could of still existed all this time
Calling for talks to get a referendum isn't a reconciliation
Gambar
VIP
The drought is not a temporary problem, it will keep occurring because of corrupt officials pocketing the money and not investing it in preventive measures and infrastructure. While people are starving this looney tune is inciting war. Walle kibirkaa ka badatay. He is calling for war while normal citizens are starving. Wax ka xasidsan ma jirto.
Why would Somalia not want a referendum? Is it because they know they'll lose?
may Allah bless and protect the people of khatumo
Because the struggle for ictiraaf is too entertaining.
But in all seriousness, a referendum will only cement the take over of somali soil by the cannibal Ethiopians.
Man-o-man, the mirqaan session up north must be heating up, i guess the 80's mandheera operation debate of the mirqaans got old huh, now WAR between South must be the hot topic of the month for the druggies up there.
Less they know that there are Savages up deep in the jungle of the South who even enslaved a Whole Gobol, frightening indeed...... how i wish i was up there watching the hot mirqaan session of the idoors spinning out.
dee....dee....dee
Less they know that there are Savages up deep in the jungle of the South who even enslaved a Whole Gobol, frightening indeed...... how i wish i was up there watching the hot mirqaan session of the idoors spinning out.
dee....dee....dee
They're already building infrastructure to deal with future droughts. I know it should've been done before but at least it's being done.
The status quo is part of the reason for the drought. The international community has given billions of dollars in aid to Somalia and the vast majority was funneled to corrupt politicians in Mogadishu instead of it going to the rest of the country.
Somaliland gets a tiny fraction in international aid in comparison to Somalia. If they had recognition more money would be spent on preventive measures and infrastructure even with corruption going on.
I'm going to do my best to not take some of these posters bait and stay out of the discussion currently in the gutter in the peripherals of this thread.
To address @merka's post:
No one's going to war. Farmajo doesn't even control Suuqa Bakaaraha let alone koonfurta so his main priority will be to secure the south over the next few years.
If the south isn't secured during his term, then the status quo will continue. It's really that simple. You will see more macro regions and clan states pop up and the further weakening of the central government. This is obviously the situation that Siilyano et. Al would prefer. It requires no action on their part, they just sit back, collect their aid cheques and continue to steal the people of Somaliland's money while watching Farmajo struggle and fail. This is the only scenario where Somaliland has a chance at recognition as well.
If the south is reasonably secured during his term then 1 of 3 things will happen:
1. Renegotiations for reunification will start, due to pressure from international community. 4.5 will be abolished, or at the very least Isaaq joins 4.5 to make it a 5.5 system. There is no way Somaliland comes back without one of the 2 as a prerequisite. I obviously prefer that 4.5 be abolished all-together but knowing Somalis it probably won't be. There will be a new constitution, truth and reconciliation committee, and everything will have to be negotiated to appease Somaliland to come back. It will probably restructure Somalia into a new Somali republic with 2 formal political entities (Somalia and Somaliland), with 50/50 power sharing, revenue sharing and the equal splitting of the international aid budget, new elections, and full autonomy for Somaliland (think of Scotland or Quebec). There will be referendums in any disputed regions, and they will be able to choose which entity they'd like to join.
2. China - Taiwan type political situation, Somalia will still be too weak federally to actually do anything about Somaliland, since it will be in the process of rebuilding after 26 years at war. Somalia will still claim Somaliland as a part of its territory in the international community, and Somaliland won't receive any recognition from the IC. When Somalia rebuilds, it will just isolate Somaliland from the IC and Somalia will cut ties with any country that recognizes SL.
3. A North and South Korea type situation. Easily the worst outcome, both sides will build up military, and the eastern border with Somalia will be heavily fortified, with sporadic conflicts. Somaliland most likely becomes a pariah in the IC under this scenario, which is probably what Farmajo would like. Even then it would just mostly be hanjabad back and forth with occasional clashes, not full out war.
I've wanted to speak on this issue for quite sometime. I think it deserves its own post discussing the potential political dynamics, and I'll make one soon.
To address @merka's post:
No one's going to war. Farmajo doesn't even control Suuqa Bakaaraha let alone koonfurta so his main priority will be to secure the south over the next few years.
If the south isn't secured during his term, then the status quo will continue. It's really that simple. You will see more macro regions and clan states pop up and the further weakening of the central government. This is obviously the situation that Siilyano et. Al would prefer. It requires no action on their part, they just sit back, collect their aid cheques and continue to steal the people of Somaliland's money while watching Farmajo struggle and fail. This is the only scenario where Somaliland has a chance at recognition as well.
If the south is reasonably secured during his term then 1 of 3 things will happen:
1. Renegotiations for reunification will start, due to pressure from international community. 4.5 will be abolished, or at the very least Isaaq joins 4.5 to make it a 5.5 system. There is no way Somaliland comes back without one of the 2 as a prerequisite. I obviously prefer that 4.5 be abolished all-together but knowing Somalis it probably won't be. There will be a new constitution, truth and reconciliation committee, and everything will have to be negotiated to appease Somaliland to come back. It will probably restructure Somalia into a new Somali republic with 2 formal political entities (Somalia and Somaliland), with 50/50 power sharing, revenue sharing and the equal splitting of the international aid budget, new elections, and full autonomy for Somaliland (think of Scotland or Quebec). There will be referendums in any disputed regions, and they will be able to choose which entity they'd like to join.
2. China - Taiwan type political situation, Somalia will still be too weak federally to actually do anything about Somaliland, since it will be in the process of rebuilding after 26 years at war. Somalia will still claim Somaliland as a part of its territory in the international community, and Somaliland won't receive any recognition from the IC. When Somalia rebuilds, it will just isolate Somaliland from the IC and Somalia will cut ties with any country that recognizes SL.
3. A North and South Korea type situation. Easily the worst outcome, both sides will build up military, and the eastern border with Somalia will be heavily fortified, with sporadic conflicts. Somaliland most likely becomes a pariah in the IC under this scenario, which is probably what Farmajo would like. Even then it would just mostly be hanjabad back and forth with occasional clashes, not full out war.
I've wanted to speak on this issue for quite sometime. I think it deserves its own post discussing the potential political dynamics, and I'll make one soon.
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Corrupted Somali politicians get pennies from the "aid=loan" the majority of the money gets eaten up by U.N. and other NGOs based in kenya and Ethiopia
Ethiopia is taking advantage to the status quo anyway.
Somaliland and Somalia would rather travel to Addis Ababa begging for help instead of meeting together and solve their issues face to face.
I don't think option 1 of resource/political power sharing 50/50 will ever happen because Somalia has about 10million ppl where as SL has 2million it wouldn't be fair, I would say 25/75 split
Gambar
VIP
Somaliland is suffering from corruption too, some of these politicians actually most don't give a shit about recognition which is why they're just waiting to collect their cheques. Somaliland will retain full autonomy either way, but it's the internal as well as the external holding it back. I wouldn't blame Somalia as a whole either because shacabka are actually just the victims in all this. It's the shameless warlords turned politicians.
You believe Isaac should get 25% when they only live in burco berbera & hargaisa
Honestly the same thing has been said during HSMs term. Somalia was supposed to be secure and have one man one vote elections by 2016.
The IC seems to be happy funneling billions of aid to Mogadishu. They'll only put pressure for talks if they feel there will be conflict.
How about letting go of Somaliland and you can have 100% :siilaanyosmile:
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