Pm Hamse Abdi Barre to visit Laas Anod SSC-Khatumo

If Laascanood joins Somalia Italiana it would be a first in African history we will see. Somaliland's re-recogntion would also be a first I guess. Somaliland's recognition is more legally and pragmatically justified than a territory just leaving it's colonial borders. The whole of Africa would have a problem with that seeing as every border is a colonial era border (including Eritrea and South Sudan).
If the Africans see the dissolution of a union of two states (British and Italian Somaliand) as problematic, also moving some territiorty from one of the states to the other is much more problematic. That's the real pandoras box if there ever was one. That would be clan based secession.

The least likely outcome of all is that Laascaanood joins Italian Somaliland. There will be a political solution.

"I remember you was conflicted"

Count Me Out GIF by Kendrick Lamar
 

Itsnotthateasy

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"I remember you was conflicted"

Count Me Out GIF by Kendrick Lamar

I mean it would be a first if Mogadishu fights but my guess is they will be forced to accept the union is over. I think then it will be just like South Sudan and Eritrea. It's just a matter of time.
Right now their line is we will never accept it, in fact we are going to cross the border, but you will see them soon enough accepting it.

The IC was forcing the union on Somaliland as a good will gesture to the clans in Somalia to fight on their behalf but they didn't work out. Now the pressure will be to accept the end of the union. This will create a new nation on the red sea, a democratic and stable partner of the free world

This is the future.


------------------------
This is far outside your propaganda narrative though so I don't expect you to engage honestly.
 
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I mean it would be a first if Mogadishu fights but my guess is they will be forced to accept the union is over. I think then it will be just like South Sudan and Eritrea. It's just a matter of time.
Right now their line is we will never accept it, in fact we are going to cross the border, but you will see them soon enough accepting it.

The IC was forcing the union on Somaliland as a good will gesture to the clans in Somalia to fight on their behalf but they didn't work out. Now the pressure will be to accept the end of the union. This will create a new nation on the red sea, a democratic and stable partner of the free world

This is the future.


------------------------
This is far outside your propaganda narrative though so I don't expect you to engage honestly.
You’ve been repeating this same baseless propaganda for over 30 years now. Today the world will see you aren’t a real country since part of the land you claim will be visited by Somalias PM while neither you nor sleepy Cirro can do a damn thing about it. Shameful. Your narrative is finished. Nobody cares about you even if they did in the past
Serious Donald Trump GIF by Bombay Softwares
 
It should have happened the moment the Garads moved to lift the Somali flag
Instead of support FGS and Hamze said yaa tolayy jooji. Better late than never I suppose. Easy to support the victors after they've won.
I kind of understand their perspective but after the MOU everything should have changed. The reality is that reconciliation is impossible while Somalia is as weak as it is. The only way for reconciliation to become plausible is for:

1. Somalia to sort itself out, which means defeating or significantly weakening Al-Shabaab and achieving some degree of cohesion between FGS and FMS. This is a tall order but I honestly don’t think it’s impossible to make significant progress if we get a reasonable president next term. Shariif for all his flaws was a conciliatory President and I can imagine the other leading candidates (Deni, Khaire) would see the value behind having FGS and FMS pushing in the same direction. People really don’t understand how much damage was done to the governmental and social fabric after 30 years of state collapse. It’s by far the worst thing to have happened to Somalia, far worse than anything from 1969-1991. I support an imperfect agreement now over holding out for another 10 years.

2: Making the Somaliland populace (or at least the government) understand that recognition isn’t possible and/or is not worth holding out for. They have no reason to feel this way now because Somalia is a mess. Why would they abandon the path to recognition when they’re doing better than the majority of Somalia, despite the fact that they are unrecognized? The visit to Laascaanod and the official establishment of FGS operations is the beginning of this process. This will take a long time as the majority of the people living in Somaliland have never seen themselves as anything but Somalilanders, but is not impossible, as long as Somalia sorts itself out and begins to progress. Any natural resource discoveries will only accelerate this process as Somalia is able to generate cash flows far beyond what Somaliland can by themselves. Economic growth is what will drive reconciliation. Nothing else will work.

Despite all of this, the sad reality is that this was true ten years ago and twenty years ago. The longer Somalia stays a failed state the less likely it is that there will ever be a peaceful reunification of Somalia and Somaliland. Somaliland is absolutely critical to the continuity of Somalia as a country. Somalia (including Somaliland), is already a bastardized nation-state missing 40% of its landmass and 1/3rd of its population. The formal loss of Somaliland would be the final nail in coffin of the post-independence dream our forefathers held and resign us to being nothing more than vassal states for our larger neighbors. Whether we can salvage the dream of a nation-state for all Somalis depends on what we do over the next five years.
 
I mean it would be a first if Mogadishu fights but my guess is they will be forced to accept the union is over. I think then it will be just like South Sudan and Eritrea. It's just a matter of time.
Right now their line is we will never accept it, in fact we are going to cross the border, but you will see them soon enough accepting it.

The IC was forcing the union on Somaliland as a good will gesture to the clans in Somalia to fight on their behalf but they didn't work out. Now the pressure will be to accept the end of the union. This will create a new nation on the red sea, a democratic and stable partner of the free world

This is the future.


------------------------
This is far outside your propaganda narrative though so I don't expect you to engage honestly.
Yes, any day now. Yup.
 

Itsnotthateasy

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VIP
I kind of understand their perspective but after the MOU everything should have changed. The reality is that reconciliation is impossible while Somalia is as weak as it is. The only way for reconciliation to become plausible is for:

1. Somalia to sort itself out, which means defeating or significantly weakening Al-Shabaab and achieving some degree of cohesion between FGS and FMS. This is a tall order but I honestly don’t think it’s impossible to make significant progress if we get a reasonable president next term. Shariif for all his flaws was a conciliatory President and I can imagine the other leading candidates (Deni, Khaire) would see the value behind having FGS and FMS pushing in the same direction. People really don’t understand how much damage was done to the governmental and social fabric after 30 years of state collapse. It’s by far the worst thing to have happened to Somalia, far worse than anything from 1969-1991. I support an imperfect agreement now over holding out for another 10 years.

2: Making the Somaliland populace (or at least the government) understand that recognition isn’t possible and/or is not worth holding out for. They have no reason to feel this way now because Somalia is a mess. Why would they abandon the path to recognition when they’re doing better than the majority of Somalia, despite the fact that they are unrecognized? The visit to Laascaanod and the official establishment of FGS operations is the beginning of this process. This will take a long time as the majority of the people living in Somaliland have never seen themselves as anything but Somalilanders, but is not impossible, as long as Somalia sorts itself out and begins to progress. Any natural resource discoveries will only accelerate this process as Somalia is able to generate cash flows far beyond what Somaliland can by themselves. Economic growth is what will drive reconciliation. Nothing else will work.

Despite all of this, the sad reality is that this was true ten years ago and twenty years ago. The longer Somalia stays a failed state the less likely it is that there will ever be a peaceful reunification of Somalia and Somaliland. Somaliland is absolutely critical to the continuity of Somalia as a country. Somalia (including Somaliland), is already a bastardized nation-state missing 40% of its landmass and 1/3rd of its population. The formal loss of Somaliland would be the final nail in coffin of the post-independence dream our forefathers held and resign us to being nothing more than vassal states for our larger neighbors. Whether we can salvage the dream of a nation-state for all Somalis depends on what we do over the next five years.

How will exporting chaos convince landers of anything. This is an incitement and provokation of a failing governent nothing more.

FGS feeds off the propaganda and hype instead of actual state building. They need a new high and crossing Somaliland's border is their next fix.
 
I mean it would be a first if Mogadishu fights but my guess is they will be forced to accept the union is over. I think then it will be just like South Sudan and Eritrea. It's just a matter of time.
Right now their line is we will never accept it, in fact we are going to cross the border, but you will see them soon enough accepting it.

The IC was forcing the union on Somaliland as a good will gesture to the clans in Somalia to fight on their behalf but they didn't work out. Now the pressure will be to accept the end of the union. This will create a new nation on the red sea, a democratic and stable partner of the free world

This is the future.


------------------------
This is far outside your propaganda narrative though so I don't expect you to engage honestly.
crack GIF
 
How will exporting chaos convince landers of anything. This is an incitement and provokation of failing governent nothing more.
You’ve been sold the dream that Somaliland is in control of its colonial borders. That is clearly not the case. You will not regain land lost to the Federal Government of Somalia ever again. The decades of Somaliland appeasement are over.
 
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Itsnotthateasy

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You’ve been sold the dream that Somaliland is in control of its colonial borders. That is clearly not the case and won’t be so ever again. You will not regain land lost to the Federal Government of Somalia ever again. The decades of Somaliland appeasement are over.

No we haven't been sold any dreams at all. We know that SL government can and will control those borders. You see Somaliland as existential to your idea of your country but you will just become realistic once you no longer have the backing for your plans.
 

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there was also darood MP’s. particularly from PL and JL telling FGS to stop the trip to laascanood. So this is not really a clan issue, Somalia has traitors in all directions.

PL disavowed their MP’s, but I’m confused about what brought that from JL MP’s especially since Mohamed Islam Madobe has a good relationship with SSC.
 

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