Puntland Local Election 2024
- Thread starter FBIsomalia
- Start date
If Bosaso population is 1 million, 300k are over 18 and eligible to vote and 700k below 18 isn't eligible. If 60k registered not even 100k, in-fact it's 5 meel waa 1 meel. At least 60-80% of 300,000 waa inay soo baxan 4 election. We should be registering at least 180k to 240 somewhere in between to be a credible election.
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Beesha muse sultan support the honorable said abdullahi dani the owner of jabir plaza bosaso say president dani long live
Opposition supporters stubbornly refused to register then were given a 3 days extension. Now reality has sunk in.
Opposition supporters stubbornly refused to register then were given a 3 days extension. Now reality has sunk in.
@FBIsomalia @Libaax-Joore
Let's assume bosaso is 700k-1 million population. Exclude below 18 to be 70% of the population. So that's 500-700k are not eligible. Wat's left over? 30% are eligible, that means 30% of 700k to 1 million is 200-300k are eligible to vote. Let's assume we don't get a full turn out.
Let's say 50-60% come out, 50% of 200-300k. On the lowest side 100-120k should vote on the highest side 150-180k should be registered.
I am expecting if the voter turn out is 50-60% for 200k voter population, the registerations should be 100-120k, that's the lowest figure possible. Infact it should be around 50-60% of 300k registration, that's 150-180k voter registration. Not 60000k looooooool, that's like 15% turn out, 85% absent. This will hurt PL election credibility
Waryaaa @FBIsomalia @repo @Libaax-Joore PL voter registration need to clarify what the registration turn out percentage is. 50-70% is a good turn out. Anything below 50% is not good. 15% is absolutely unacceptable.
@Libaax-Joore We don't need this election. We need a proper census first so we know the true figure of voter population. Las anood needs us
This Sicid Yusuf Bah Dubays Man. He was stopped by deni for our turn as federal MP
This Sicid Yusuf Bah Dubays Man. He was stopped by deni for our turn as federal MP
As of today, Bari has registered around 150K against an estimated population of 700K. When I say Bari, I mean old Bari that includes Bari, Karkaar and Gardafui. 100K so far during the current registration period and 48K in the previous 3 district trial election. Eligible voters are over 18 that have lived in Puntland for over 10 years. It doesn't look bad to me.
Qardho-Ufeyn-Eyl, they didn't even go out to nomads. Qardho is 26k registered. If we assume a full turn out, their total population is 90-100k. If we assumee 100% turn out for Bosaso with 60k registered, that would mean it's only 200k population.
The reality is Bosaso is at least 4-5 times larger then Qardho not 'double' only. The amount of towns the size of Ufeyn are too many count in Bari.
Our C villages around 40-50k around ufeyn size are 10-15 towns In Bari. 50k x 10 villages is 500k minimum just there not including A-B sized town.
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0117
Reborn
That's incorrect as you counted the Eyl (one the 3 trial districts) as part of Bari which had around 11K registered voters.
3 million in Majerteniya(bari,nugal,mudug) is acceptable to me. Out of 3 million, 30% r above 18 n eligible to vote. 900k must come out for a full turn out. If 50% come out, then I will accept 450k registered, but it must be made clear by TPEC only 50% turned out not 100%.
But at this rate if only 15% turn out it will mean 135k will vote in puntland. Anyways TPEC must calculate wat the 'true turn out' is against our estimated population.
0117
Reborn
Dr your finally talking with numbers after all these years.
Here are some further insights you can add to your analysis.
Firstly when discussing voter turn out you don't compare population to votes but instead those that have legally registered to the number of votes.
In the trial elections in Eyl, Qardho and Ufeyan had in total 46,839 registered for the elections but only 28,854 voted which makes the election turn out to those that have registred at 61.6%.
Of which those that voted around 10% were invalid due to ballot errors (literacy issues).
Another concern is that those 46,839 registered voters 37,578 collected their cards which meant more than 8,000 weren't able to vote which is a red flag.
So the true figure for voter turn out is 76.8% and this figure is really high in democracies and a positive sign.
The low number of registered is debunking your idea that Puntland has a population between 4-5 million.
Deni voting population is sourced from Census. Deni should've done a census and left it at that and let the next govt then do voter registeration, then we have real census data to work from. Qardho-Eyl-Ufayn nomads weren't counted either only 40% of their population was the urbanites or settled areas. U have to remember 60% of our economy is nomadic. They r not small population.
Our constitution makes it clear no election untill census or anyone can 'fudge' figures on voting roll and say 10% turned out or 100% turned out becuz they only using 'registration' data as reference point which is only 18 above, not including under 18 which is 70% of population.
If we had census we would know how much the 18 and above are, male, female, etc.
If we had census we would know how much the 18 and above are, male, female, etc.
In PL, on the general public side, there is no motivation for elections, 'cos it is as if they are not missing anything. 'Why bother', is the general attitude, when you speak with the average person.
On the PL gov't side, they are seeking nigh perfection, which does not exist.
Low turn-out is a common trend in even mature democracies. Just move along with what is being had, and learn from the process.
Garissa has a population of 900,000. In 2022, it had 200,000 registered voters and 110,000 voted in the presidential election. Garissa has one of the lowest voter registration and voter turnout rates in Kenya. In the recent Garissa local elections, turnout was very low.
Bari has a population of nearly 1,000,000 at this point. It should easily be able to register 250,000. If it is not doing that, it means that the population simply does not care given that what is at stake are local district councils. It is not good if all of Bari manages to register fewer than 200,000 people. Mudug, with half the population, may end up registering as many people if that happens.
It will be interesting to see what registration figures are like when parliament is up for election and people realize that the presidency is at stake.
TPEC head discussing lower than expected registration
