I’ll preface this by saying this isn’t a bad-faith argument but a real question: what actually happens after recognition? People are treating a potential deal with Trump as a quid pro quo, but in reality, it’s a one-sided gamble—one where Somaliland is in the much weaker position after decades of chasing legitimacy.
Let’s say recognition comes in exchange for a U.S. military foothold in Berbera, a move to counter China in Djibouti and project power in the Red Sea. What does Somaliland actually get in return? A few security agreements? Some symbolic aid? If anyone thinks this comes with something akin to Marshall Plan, they’re delusional. Once the U.S. has its base, Somaliland has no leverage to demand real investment or infrastructure projects. Trump isn’t a nation-builder. Regarding private investors and foreign capital, money follows stability and access to global markets, not a handshake agreement and a flag.
And what about China? If Washington backs Somaliland, Beijing will retaliate. Recognition doesn’t get Somaliland into the UN, World Bank, or IMF. China holds enormous sway over these institutions and has no problem blocking breakaway states it doesn’t approve of. Why would Somaliland be any different? China is Africa’s largest economic partner, controls much of its infrastructure, and doesn’t tolerate U.S. encroachment in its spheres of influence. If Beijing decides that doing business with Somaliland threatens a country’s relationship with China, most governments and investors will take the easy way out. No African state is going to risk Chinese loans and trade just to recognize a breakaway republic the U.S. suddenly decided to acknowledge.
Even if none of this happens immediately, what happens when Trump leaves office? Recognition is a political decision, not a legal one. The U.S. has a history of reversing diplomatic recognition when it becomes inconvenient. Taiwan was recognized as the “real China” until Nixon cut a deal with Beijing. If a new U.S. president decides to undo the Trump administration’s international policies, what then?
Recognition has been, all my life, treated as an endpoint, as the scaffolding of national identity. What happens after? Is there a chance Somaliland might end up recognized but, ultimately, isolated?
Let’s say recognition comes in exchange for a U.S. military foothold in Berbera, a move to counter China in Djibouti and project power in the Red Sea. What does Somaliland actually get in return? A few security agreements? Some symbolic aid? If anyone thinks this comes with something akin to Marshall Plan, they’re delusional. Once the U.S. has its base, Somaliland has no leverage to demand real investment or infrastructure projects. Trump isn’t a nation-builder. Regarding private investors and foreign capital, money follows stability and access to global markets, not a handshake agreement and a flag.
And what about China? If Washington backs Somaliland, Beijing will retaliate. Recognition doesn’t get Somaliland into the UN, World Bank, or IMF. China holds enormous sway over these institutions and has no problem blocking breakaway states it doesn’t approve of. Why would Somaliland be any different? China is Africa’s largest economic partner, controls much of its infrastructure, and doesn’t tolerate U.S. encroachment in its spheres of influence. If Beijing decides that doing business with Somaliland threatens a country’s relationship with China, most governments and investors will take the easy way out. No African state is going to risk Chinese loans and trade just to recognize a breakaway republic the U.S. suddenly decided to acknowledge.
Even if none of this happens immediately, what happens when Trump leaves office? Recognition is a political decision, not a legal one. The U.S. has a history of reversing diplomatic recognition when it becomes inconvenient. Taiwan was recognized as the “real China” until Nixon cut a deal with Beijing. If a new U.S. president decides to undo the Trump administration’s international policies, what then?
Recognition has been, all my life, treated as an endpoint, as the scaffolding of national identity. What happens after? Is there a chance Somaliland might end up recognized but, ultimately, isolated?