So, what’s post-recognition, Somalilanders?

[nobutreally]

I’ll preface this by saying this isn’t a bad-faith argument but a real question: what actually happens after recognition? People are treating a potential deal with Trump as a quid pro quo, but in reality, it’s a one-sided gamble—one where Somaliland is in the much weaker position after decades of chasing legitimacy.

Let’s say recognition comes in exchange for a U.S. military foothold in Berbera, a move to counter China in Djibouti and project power in the Red Sea. What does Somaliland actually get in return? A few security agreements? Some symbolic aid? If anyone thinks this comes with something akin to Marshall Plan, they’re delusional. Once the U.S. has its base, Somaliland has no leverage to demand real investment or infrastructure projects. Trump isn’t a nation-builder. Regarding private investors and foreign capital, money follows stability and access to global markets, not a handshake agreement and a flag.

And what about China? If Washington backs Somaliland, Beijing will retaliate. Recognition doesn’t get Somaliland into the UN, World Bank, or IMF. China holds enormous sway over these institutions and has no problem blocking breakaway states it doesn’t approve of. Why would Somaliland be any different? China is Africa’s largest economic partner, controls much of its infrastructure, and doesn’t tolerate U.S. encroachment in its spheres of influence. If Beijing decides that doing business with Somaliland threatens a country’s relationship with China, most governments and investors will take the easy way out. No African state is going to risk Chinese loans and trade just to recognize a breakaway republic the U.S. suddenly decided to acknowledge.

Even if none of this happens immediately, what happens when Trump leaves office? Recognition is a political decision, not a legal one. The U.S. has a history of reversing diplomatic recognition when it becomes inconvenient. Taiwan was recognized as the “real China” until Nixon cut a deal with Beijing. If a new U.S. president decides to undo the Trump administration’s international policies, what then?

Recognition has been, all my life, treated as an endpoint, as the scaffolding of national identity. What happens after? Is there a chance Somaliland might end up recognized but, ultimately, isolated?

 

[nobutreally]

The Cold War Redux is loading.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

I’ll preface this by saying this isn’t a bad-faith argument but a real question: what actually happens after recognition? People are treating a potential deal with Trump as a quid pro quo, but in reality, it’s a one-sided gamble—one where Somaliland is in the much weaker position after decades of chasing legitimacy.

Let’s say recognition comes in exchange for a U.S. military foothold in Berbera, a move to counter China in Djibouti and project power in the Red Sea. What does Somaliland actually get in return? A few security agreements? Some symbolic aid? If anyone thinks this comes with something akin to Marshall Plan, they’re delusional. Once the U.S. has its base, Somaliland has no leverage to demand real investment or infrastructure projects. Trump isn’t a nation-builder. Regarding private investors and foreign capital, money follows stability and access to global markets, not a handshake agreement and a flag.

And what about China? If Washington backs Somaliland, Beijing will retaliate. Recognition doesn’t get Somaliland into the UN, World Bank, or IMF. China holds enormous sway over these institutions and has no problem blocking breakaway states it doesn’t approve of. Why would Somaliland be any different? China is Africa’s largest economic partner, controls much of its infrastructure, and doesn’t tolerate U.S. encroachment in its spheres of influence. If Beijing decides that doing business with Somaliland threatens a country’s relationship with China, most governments and investors will take the easy way out. No African state is going to risk Chinese loans and trade just to recognize a breakaway republic the U.S. suddenly decided to acknowledge.

Even if none of this happens immediately, what happens when Trump leaves office? Recognition is a political decision, not a legal one. The U.S. has a history of reversing diplomatic recognition when it becomes inconvenient. Taiwan was recognized as the “real China” until Nixon cut a deal with Beijing. If a new U.S. president decides to undo the Trump administration’s international policies, what then?

Recognition has been, all my life, treated as an endpoint, as the scaffolding of national identity. What happens after? Is there a chance Somaliland might end up recognized but, ultimately, isolated?

Membership of the IMF and World bank requires majority vote (50%+1)

US holds most voting power of any country.

IMF:

World bank:

I think independent Somaliland can join IMF and World Bank because China alone can't block with just 6% of voting power. I don't think they could form a majority to block it because why would they? Kosovo is a member of IMF and world bank.

Somaliland is currently completely isolated. Recognition will bring the opposite. Thank you listening and if you were not acting in bad faith you might have done a little research before hand.

 

[Yami]

Membership of the IMF and World bank requires majority vote (50%+1)

US holds most voting power of any country.

IMF:
View attachment 357128
World bank:

View attachment 357130

I think independent Somaliland can join IMF and World Bank because China alone can't block with just 6% of voting power. I don't think they could form a majority to block it because why would they? Kosovo is a member of IMF and world bank.

Somaliland is currently completely isolated. Recognition will bring the opposite. Thank you listening and if you were not acting in bad faith you might have done a little research before hand.

Recognition solves most of our problems. We gain access to IMF financing and world bank loans directly to hargeisa, access to the international weapons market, full diplomatic and bilateral trade agreements with foreign countries. With the US in particular they already had a base in Berbera in the past when the soviets left so I don't see how them having a new one is a problem. Also China has only used its veto power to counteract UN decisions 12 times, I don't think they will veto Somaliland we are not that important.

 

[Mozart]

This is just dressed up fear mongering. Recognition for Somaliland breaks up the 30+ year stalemate in Somalia

 

[nobutreally]

Membership of the IMF and World bank requires majority vote (50%+1)

US holds most voting power of any country.

IMF:
View attachment 357128
World bank:

View attachment 357130

I think independent Somaliland can join IMF and World Bank because China alone can't block with just 6% of voting power. I don't think they could form a majority to block it because why would they? Kosovo is a member of IMF and world bank.

Somaliland is currently completely isolated. Recognition will bring the opposite. Thank you listening and if you were not acting in bad faith you might have done a little research before hand.

It’s a thought experiment, not a bad-faith argument, but I appreciate the discussion.

Regarding China and the IMF/World Bank, this isn’t a math problem—it’s about geopolitical influence. China alone might only hold 6% of the vote, but it doesn’t need to act alone. It has deep economic ties across Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, and the AU already opposes Somaliland’s independence. If Beijing signals that backing Somaliland jeopardizes investment, infrastructure deals, or trade relations, most countries will take the easy way out. No one is picking Somaliland over China.

Recognition isn’t a magic key that unlocks global markets and financial institutions. Money follows stability, infrastructure, and access—not just diplomatic status. Investors still have to weigh risk, and even if Somaliland is recognized, it will still be seen as a fragile economy with limited financial networks and unresolved disputes.

Kosovo, despite recognition from over 100 countries, is still one of Europe’s poorest economies. It relies on remittances, lacks full access to global markets, and struggles to attract foreign investment because many countries don’t recognize its legal or economic institutions. Why would Somaliland, with far less backing and stronger opposition, have an easier time?

Recognition doesn’t force the AU, WTO, or global banks to integrate Somaliland overnight. It doesn’t rewrite trade agreements.

For those saying Somalis aren't that important: This isn’t even about Somalis—Somaliland, Somalia, all of us are pawns. It’s about the larger game between China and America. Believing everything will just fall into place ignores the reality of how long it actually takes for a country to transition from de facto independence to full global participation.

 

[nobutreally]

This is just dressed up fear mongering. Recognition for Somaliland breaks up the 30+ year stalemate in Somalia

Thinking critically and questioning what global powers actually want isn't fear mongering.

 

[nobutreally]

Recognition solves most of our problems. We gain access to IMF financing and world bank loans directly to hargeisa, access to the international weapons market, full diplomatic and bilateral trade agreements with foreign countries. With the US in particular they already had a base in Berbera in the past when the soviets left so I don't see how them having a new one is a problem. Also China has only used its veto power to counteract UN decisions 12 times, I don't think they will veto Somaliland we are not that important.

And? The geopolitical landscape has completely changed. Back then, China wasn’t a global superpower with a military base in Djibouti, the U.S. wasn’t locked in direct competition with Beijing across Africa, and Somalia’s territorial disputes weren’t under heavy international scrutiny. A U.S. base in Berbera today isn’t just a military decision—it’s a move in a larger U.S.-China power struggle.

 

[Duubpon]

Some Landers will sell their families into slavery for ictiraaf.

@Yami and @Itsnotthateasy should at least think this through.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

It’s a thought experiment, not a bad-faith argument, but I appreciate the discussion.

Regarding China and the IMF/World Bank, this isn’t a math problem—it’s about geopolitical influence. China alone might only hold 6% of the vote, but it doesn’t need to act alone. It has deep economic ties across Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, and the AU already opposes Somaliland’s independence. If Beijing signals that backing Somaliland jeopardizes investment, infrastructure deals, or trade relations, most countries will take the easy way out. No one is picking Somaliland over China.

Recognition isn’t a magic key that unlocks global markets and financial institutions. Money follows stability, infrastructure, and access—not just diplomatic status. Investors still have to weigh risk, and even if Somaliland is recognized, it will still be seen as a fragile economy with limited financial networks and unresolved disputes.

Kosovo, despite recognition from over 100 countries, is still one of Europe’s poorest economies. It relies on remittances, lacks full access to global markets, and struggles to attract foreign investment because many countries don’t recognize its legal or economic institutions. Why would Somaliland, with far less backing and stronger opposition, have an easier time?

Recognition doesn’t force the AU, WTO, or global banks to integrate Somaliland overnight. It doesn’t rewrite trade agreements.

For those saying Somalis aren't that important: This isn’t even about Somalis—Somaliland, Somalia, all of us are pawns. It’s about the larger game between China and America. Believing everything will just fall into place ignores the reality of how long it actually takes for a country to transition from de facto independence to full global participation.

Your thought experiment includes China as total adversary of Somaliland, blocking it at every turn and turning every situation into a Us vs them. This is just fear mongering as the other poster identified. This is less thought experiment more like a wishful thinking for you.

The current reality is the Mogadishu doesn't recognize Somaliland, tries to block inward investment, diplomacy. Things can only improve from here.

 

[nobutreally]

Your thought experiment includes China as total adversary of Somaliland, blocking it at every turn and turning every situation into a Us vs them. This is just fear mongering as the other poster identified. This is less thought experiment more like a wishful thinking for you.

The current reality is the Mogadishu doesn't recognize Somaliland, tries to block inward investment, diplomacy. Things can only improve from here.

Your response misrepresents my argument. China doesn’t have to be Somaliland’s “total adversary” to block its progress; it just has to see it as a strategic threat. The Horn of Africa has always been a strategic battleground for external interests—first the Cold War, now in the U.S.-China rivalry. NO major power engages in the Horn without an agenda.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

Your response misrepresents my argument. China doesn’t have to be Somaliland’s “total adversary” to block its progress; it just has to see it as a strategic threat. The Horn of Africa has always been a strategic battleground for external interests—first the Cold War, now in the U.S.-China rivalry. NO major power engages in the Horn without an agenda.

How is Somaliland a strategic threat to China? What does that make Djibouti currently? A threat to China?
Man give up this nonsense talk.

It's about influence. Your whole premise is based on Somaliland being seen as a threat to China. Somaliland is just a small country on the horn of Africa.

 

[nobutreally]

How is Somaliland a strategic threat to China? What does that make Djibouti currently? A threat to China?
Man give up this nonsense talk.

Djibouti? Where China already has a base and deep economic ties? The issue isn’t Somaliland itself being a direct threat—it’s what recognition could signal. If Somaliland becomes a U.S.-aligned state with a military presence, it shifts the regional balance and gives Washington another foothold in the Horn of Africa. This is getting redundant. I'm bored and out.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

Djibouti? Where China already has a base and deep economic ties? The issue isn’t Somaliland itself being a direct threat—it’s what recognition could signal. If Somaliland becomes a U.S.-aligned state with a military presence, it shifts the regional balance and gives Washington another foothold in the Horn of Africa. This is getting redundant. I'm bored and out.

Djibouti has a US military presence too doesn't it so obviously your whole argument falls apart completely and so you run.

 

[nobutreally]

Djibouti has a US military presence too doesn't it so obviously your whole argument falls apart completely and so you run.

Djibouti rents bases to multiple powers to stay neutral. Somaliland would, hypothetically, be offering a base as leverage for U.S. recognition—that’s alignment, not neutrality. If you still don’t see the difference, that’s on you.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

Djibouti rents bases to multiple powers to stay neutral. Somaliland would, hypothetically, be offering a base as leverage for U.S. recognition—that’s alignment, not neutrality. If you still don’t see the difference, that’s on you.

So alignment is a direct threat to China? Your orginal straw man is falling apart at least. Many countries are US allies.

 

[nobutreally]

So alignment is a direct threat to China? Your orginal straw man is falling apart at least. Many countries are US allies.

Intentionally misframing, once again. Never said Somaliland is a direct threat to China; alignment shifts influence, which is what matters in geopolitics. If you can't grasp the difference, that’s on you.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

Intentionally misframing, once again. Never said Somaliland is a direct threat to China; alignment shifts influence, which is what matters in geopolitics. If you can't grasp the difference, that’s on you.

So why would China retaliate against Somaliland?

And what about China? If Washington backs Somaliland, Beijing will retaliate. Recognition doesn’t get Somaliland into the UN, World Bank, or IMF. China holds enormous sway over these institutions and has no problem blocking breakaway states it doesn’t approve of. Why would Somaliland be any different? China is Africa’s largest economic partner, controls much of its infrastructure, and doesn’t tolerate U.S. encroachment in its spheres of influence. If Beijing decides that doing business with Somaliland threatens a country’s relationship with China, most governments and investors will take the easy way out. No African state is going to risk Chinese loans and trade just to recognize a breakaway republic the U.S. suddenly decided to acknowledge.

China's best play at that point would be to recognize Somaliland and make deals with it but the reality is China is not expecting to be the sole superpower in the horn of Africa, that's completely unrealistic for them.

You just mad Somaliland will become a recognized state and not a disputed northern region like your type has been dreaming about for 30 years.

 

[3LetterzMM]

I’ll tell you what happens next America grants recognition in exchange for a completely unfair deal straight up extortion. Now ur govt is americas lackey forced to do their bidding probably gonna make u send all ur soldiers to Yemen so they can die horrible deaths. All for a recognition that will be useless because they won’t be a UN member hell they won’t even be an AU member. Unless the Somali govt itself grants them a referendum to decide on whether or not they stay the recognition of one country by itself is useless even if that country is the United states.

 

[El Nino]

If SL gets independence on its current ”borders” I fear there will be a full scale war between Isaaqs and Daroods. There is nothing that Isaaqs can offer to entice them to return, not even money.

A sad situation.