War in Sool

[Itsnotthateasy]

Damn I got dunked on View attachment 336520

The statistics confuse me though. Is it basically saying being born in a bad hospital is worse than a live birth? How does that make any sense.

Back in the day when everyone was living in the miyi the infant mortality rates were crazy. Most of Sool are reer miyi and it has the fewest hospitals in Waqooyi. Somethings not adding up

These are estimates based on a questionnaire.

Probably education plays a factor in being able to complete these things correctly. Unless you have accurate hospital data on these things probably worthless.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Under-five mortality rates and RMNCH service coverage inequalities by place of residence have reduced substantially in sub-Saharan Africa, with rural areas experiencing faster progress than other areas. The absolute gap in child mortality between rural areas and capital cities and that between rural and other urban areas reduced respectively from 41 and 26 deaths per 1000 live births in 2000 to 23 and 15 by 2015. Capital cities are losing their primacy in child survival and RMNCH coverage over other urban areas and rural areas, especially in Eastern Africa where under-five mortality gap between capital cities and rural areas closed almost completely by 2015. While child mortality and RMNCH coverage inequalities are closing rapidly by place of residence, slower trends in capital cities and urban areas suggest gradual erosion of capital city and urban health advantage.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11524-023-00820-0
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1353829214000896

@Itsnotthateasy keep coping.

 

[NidarNidar]

I’ve looked into everything already. Sool and Sanaag have lower infant mortality than Woqoyie Galbeed and Togdheer.

View attachment 336515

https://www.somalispot.com/threads/what-somalias-population-without-somaliland.125364/post-3155412

Awdal being the lowest in the region, no wonder the population is skyrocketing.

 

[Yami]

Spoiler

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*Loud start*

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

@Thegoodshepherd is wants you to believe there are hoardes of Harti when in reality there aint that many. For my estimation there are more people in WG than Sool, Sanaag, Togdheer and Awdal combined. These statistics he posts are outright lies or cherry picked and out of context and unreliable, so don't pay attention to them.

These guys are lying 24/7 because when you can't win a conventional war you try to win the information war: confuse and demoralize the enemy into not even wanting to confront you.The SNM decisively defeated the government in the north in the civil war when they had a a massive military advantage. Not possible with 55% of the population.

 

[NidarNidar]

@Thegoodshepherd is wants you to believe there are hoardes of Harti when in reality there aint that many. For my estimation there are more people in WG than Sool, Sanaag, Togdheer and Awdal combined. These statistics he posts are outright lies or cherry picked and out of context and unreliable, so don't pay attention to them.

These guys are lying 24/7 because when you can't win a conventional war you try to win the information war: confuse and demoralize the enemy into not even wanting to confront you.The SNM decisively defeated the government in the north in the civil war when they had a a massive military advantage. Not possible with 55% of the population.

I highly doubt WG is larger in population than all 4 of those combined, the population of Awdal is estimated to be 1M now 50% being nomadic, WG can't be more than 2M tops.

SNM didn't defeat the Somali government, it just waited for it to collapse centrally, and the people of the north didn't want war fortunately, gotta give it to the elders or else we would of ended up like the south.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

I highly doubt WG is larger in population than all 4 of those combined, the population of Awdal is estimated to be 1M now 50% being nomadic, WG can't be more than 2M tops.

SNM didn't defeat the Somali government, it just waited for it to collapse centrally, and the people of the north didn't want war fortunately, gotta give it to the elders or else we would of ended up like the south.

Between 1977 and 1987 Somalia imported 1.1 billion dollars of arms to counter balance Soviet Ethiopia. For perspective, South Africa imported 300 million in the same period, Rwanda 35 million. Kenya with 3x the population of Somalia at the time only imported 500 million. Siad Barres government was armed to the teeth.

Anyway those arms went into destroying the north in a war of extermination. The government was degraded militarily and morally and then toppled. All the downed planes and millions of mines left in the north is a reminder of what happened there.

Since that time people forgot, and rewrote history.

-----------------
In the decade before 1977 Somalia imported something like 350 million dollars in arms which was one of the highest in Africa and the second highest amount of arms imports in per capita terms (Libya just imported crazy amounts). I believe most of those arms were lost in the Ogaden war though.

Ethiopia for perspective (10x the population):

About $160 milion until 1977 when the Soviets made it rain for them. Siad Barre must have been pissed lol.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

@Thegoodshepherd is wants you to believe there are hoardes of Harti when in reality there aint that many. For my estimation there are more people in WG than Sool, Sanaag, Togdheer and Awdal combined. These statistics he posts are outright lies or cherry picked and out of context and unreliable, so don't pay attention to them.

These guys are lying 24/7 because when you can't win a conventional war you try to win the information war: confuse and demoralize the enemy into not even wanting to confront you.The SNM decisively defeated the government in the north in the civil war when they had a a massive military advantage. Not possible with 55% of the population.

• You can actually test the validity of the 2014 PESS data against google open buildings data and see if there is a 1 to match, or something close to that. Here is a test you can do that only requires knowledge of basic statistics: For each of the 18 states, add up urban+rural+IDP figures from 2014 PESS to get an estimate of all of those living in permanent structures. Use google buildings to find out how many buildings there are in each of the 18 states (> or = 70% confidence level), check the correlation between state share of Somalia’s 2014 PESS urban+rural+IDP figures and the state share of total Somalia buildings for all 18 regions. My guess: r is above 0.9, basically the 2014 PESS was right. I will also do it and make a thread at some point.
• SNM only gained control of Isaaq and Gadabursi areas after the collapse of the MSB gov in Jan 1991. SNM never managed to defeat the SNA. SNM gained control of Berbera, Burco and Hargaysa a cew days after the fall of MSB’s government. Keep in mind that Isaaq are today ~55% of the population of northern Somalia, in the 1980s they would have been closer to 65-70% of the population. Isaaq decline as share of northern population is post civil war, perhaps even post 2000.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

• You can actually test the validity of the 2014 PESS data against google open buildings data and see if there is a 1 to match, or something close to that. Here is a test you can do that only requires knowledge of basic statistics: For each of the 18 states, add up urban+rural+IDP figures from 2014 PESS to get an estimate of all of those living in permanent structures. Use google buildings to find out how many buildings there are in each of the 18 states (> or = 70% confidence level), check the correlation between state share of Somalia’s 2014 PESS urban+rural+IDP figures and the state share of total Somalia buildings for all 18 regions. My guess: r is above 0.9, basically the 2014 PESS was right. I will also do it and make a thread at some point.
• SNM only gained control of Isaaq and Gadabursi areas after the collapse of the MSB gov in Jan 1991. SNM never managed to defeat the SNA. SNM gained control of Berbera, Burco and Hargaysa a cew days after the fall of MSB’s government. Keep in mind that Isaaq are today ~55% of the population of northern Somalia, in the 1980s they would have been closer to 65-70% of the population. Isaaq decline as share of northern population is post civil war, perhaps even post 2000.

Why don't you post up your thread so it can be debunked like the others.

Use some baseless estimation as the basis and then think adding google data can give it some credibility.

Anyway I respect the hustle, you are going down fighting (or lying) in your case as your federal project comes full circle to consume Puntland.

The SNM did all the heavy lifting to break Siad's war machine, your SSDF surrendered and then tried to create federalism to spoil all that work lol.

 

[NidarNidar]

Between 1977 and 1987 Somalia imported 1.1 billion dollars of arms to counter balance Soviet Ethiopia. For perspective, South Africa imported 300 million in the same period, Rwanda 35 million. Kenya with 3x the population of Somalia at the time only imported 500 million. Siad Barres government was armed to the teeth.

Anyway those arms went into destroying the north in a war of extermination. The government was degraded militarily and morally and then toppled. All the downed planes and millions of mines left in the north is a reminder of what happened there.

Since that time people forgot, and rewrote history.

-----------------
In the decade before 1977 Somalia imported something like 350 million dollars in arms which was one of the highest in Africa and the second highest amount of arms imports in per capita terms (Libya just imported crazy amounts). I believe most of those arms were lost in the Ogaden war though.

Ethiopia for perspective (10x the population):
View attachment 336831
View attachment 336832

About $160 milion until 1977 when the Soviets made it rain for them. Siad Barre must have been pissed lol.

I should have clarified that the attack and destruction of Hargeisa and Burcao solidified the support of all Isaaq towards the SNM, most of the aerial bombs dropped on the two cities were from mercenaries, but either way that was the final coffin for Siad Barre.

He was getting military aid from UAE & Italy around this time, it didn't matter that the SNM was being supported previously by Ethiopia, attacking innocent civilians "your supposed people" sealed his faith.