Will Somalia suffer the same fate as Afghanistan when AMISOM leave?

[World]

In one month, the Taliban has captured almost the entire country and the President has fled the country. Over a trillion dollars, 20 years building the Afghan army and government, and they crumbled in a matter of weeks.

Will Somalia’s government suffer the same fate as Afghanistan’s government? I mean we are not that different. Both of our government’s are extremely corrupt. Our soldiers are not real soldiers, they can’t fight Al Shabab without AMISOM backing and will probably flee at the first sign of real trouble. They are not motivated, hungry, unpaid. Somalia doesn’t have real control outside of Mogadishu, likewise Afghanistan didn’t really have control outside of Kabul.

 

[celidheere]

no

 

[TheManWhoIsAlive]

Nope

 

[Yukon_Niner]

Fat chance. Completely different situation and dynamics.

Culture and qabil supersede everything else in Somalia. It'll never reach the North, at worst Mogadishu, Kismayo and baidoa would be gone if they managed to resurge.

 

[Interested]

It is like you are almost rooting for that to happen. I don't think AS are as strong , they don't enjoy the popularity the Taliban apparently enjoy in Afghanistan. Anyways one side completely winning is better than a constant civil war.

 

[World]

Fat chance. Completely different situation and dynamics.

Culture and qabil supersede everything else in Somalia. It'll never reach the North, at worst Mogadishu, Kismayo and baidoa would be gone if they managed to resurge.

I’m not talking about Somaliland and Puntland. But basically everything south of Gaalkacyo.

 

[mr steal your naag]

In one month, the Taliban has captured almost the entire country and the President has fled the country. Over a trillion dollars, 20 years building the Afghan army and government, and they crumbled in a matter of weeks.

Will Somalia’s government suffer the same fate as Afghanistan’s government? I mean we are not that different. Both of our government’s are extremely corrupt. Our soldiers are not real soldiers, they can’t fight Al Shabab without AMISOM backing and will probably flee at the first sign of real trouble. They are not motivated, hungry, unpaid. Somalia doesn’t have real control outside of Mogadishu, likewise Afghanistan didn’t really have control outside of Kabul.

Yeah it will most likely go the same way but somalis have 1 thing afghans dont have and its qabil every man would fight for his clan and protect their tuulos from terrorist. except the small clans they would fight with all shabab against gouverment troops. If they took over it would proberly look like this

 

[Al Muslim]

I think it would most likely happen but somalis have 1 thing afghans dont have and its qabil every man would fight for his clan and protect their tuulos from terrorist. except the small clans they would fight with all shabab. If it happened it would look like this but nothing more
View attachment 197593

Tribalism and ethnic divisions are a thing in afghanistan. In the late 90's and early 2000's the majority of the Taliban was Pashtun and as a result they had trouble capturing the non Pashtun north of Afghanistan which was receiving western funding. However this time they expanded to include much more non pashtun people and they captured the entirety of the north within 2 months.

 

[mr steal your naag]

Tribalism and ethnic divisions are a thing in afghanistan. In the late 90's and early 2000's the majority of the Taliban was Pashtun and as a result they had trouble capturing the non Pashtun north of Afghanistan which was receiving western funding. However this time they expanded to include much more non pashtun people and they capture the entirety of the north within 2 months.

Yeah thats true but you forgot to say that the pashtuns are the majority in Afghanistan by far so it was not that hard to capture other etnic places and the Pashtuns that live in pakistan helped the taliban allot

 

[reer]

Tribalism and ethnic divisions are a thing in afghanistan. In the late 90's and early 2000's the majority of the Taliban was Pashtun and as a result they had trouble capturing the non Pashtun north of Afghanistan which was receiving western funding. However this time they expanded to include much more non pashtun people and they capture the entirety of the north within 2 months.

pashtuns have the similar mentality of my qabiil is my qaran. people are underestimating the divided clan mentality. reer jubba wont send guutos to middle shabelle to die and reer benadir wont send guutos to jubba to fight shabab. people who arent looking seriously are overestimating the sna. if amisom pulled out of xamar chunks of the capital would be immediately contested. amisom are needed in major towns/cities like kismayo baidoa bardera.
what happened when ethiopians left? shabab and other groups gained power. then shabab overpowered them till they had the south. the same would happen today.

 

[Al Muslim]

pashtuns have the similar mentality of my qabiil is my qaran. people are underestimating the divided clan mentality. reer jubba wont send guutos to middle shabelle to die and reer benadir wont send guutos to jubba to fight shabab. people who arent looking seriously are overestimating the sna. if amisom pulled out of xamar chunks of the capital would be immediately contested. amisom are needed in major towns/cities like kismayo baidoa bardera.
what happened when ethiopians left? shabab and other groups gained power. then shabab overpowered them till they had the south. the same would happen today.

I agree to an extent. You are also overestimating the power of Amsiom, they regularly get destroyed by alshabaab. Both the government and Amisom rely on air power to maintain control of their positions. The EU is starting to reduce funding for Amisom and we saw the withdrawal of americans from Somalia, france is also withdrawing from west Africa. I think this is the beginning of the end for western hegemony in the middle east.

 

[World]

Yeah it will most likely go the same way but somalis have 1 thing afghans dont have and its qabil every man would fight for his clan and protect their tuulos from terrorist. except the small clans they would fight with all shabab against gouverment troops. If they took over it would proberly look like this
View attachment 197593

The fact that Somalis are divided by qabiil lines makes it easier for Al Shabab to conquer them. A divided enemy is easier to conquer than a united enemy. Will Marehan and Ogaden who are fighting each other in Jubbaland unite against Al Shabab? No they won’t. If Darood won’t unite to fight against Al Shabab, then what hope does the rest of the country have? Only Puntland and Somaliland could fight against them.

 

[mr steal your naag]

I agree to an extent. You are also overestimating the power of Amsiom, they regularly get destroyed by alshabaab. Both the government and Amisom rely on air power to maintain control of their positions. The EU is starting to reduce funding for Amisom and we saw the withdrawal of americans from Somalia, france is also withdrawing from west Africa. I think this is the beginning of the end for western hegemony in the middle east.

Its crazy that BIDEN decided to pull out of Afghanistan they knew exacly what would happen

 

[Interested]

Its crazy that BIDEN decided to pull out of Afghanistan they knew exacly what would happen

Why tf would u want Afghanistan to continue being occupied?

 

[mr steal your naag]

The fact that Somalis are divided by qabiil lines makes it easier for Al Shabab to conquer them. A divided enemy is easier to conquer than a united enemy. Will Marehan and Ogaden who are fighting each other in Jubbaland unite against Al Shabab? No they won’t. If Darood won’t unite to fight against Al Shabab, then what hope does the rest of the country have? Only Puntland and Somaliland could fight against them.

Yeah true it makes it so much easier for all shabab to take over everything below galkayo you will have allot of clans signing deals with all shabab for a better life

 

[Gantaal97]

Its crazy that BIDEN decided to pull out of Afghanistan they knew exacly what would happen

It was Trump who first started talking with Taliban and started the process of US withdrawal from Afghanistan and Biden continued that process

 

[mr steal your naag]

Why tf would u want Afghanistan to continue being occupied?

You call it occupied? So you rather have the taliban controll all of Afghanistan and misstreat everybody? Girls can not go to school and they get married off to taliban fighters by force

 

[reer]

I agree to an extent. You are also overestimating the power of Amsiom, they regularly get destroyed by alshabaab. Both the government and Amisom rely on air power to maintain control of their positions. The EU is starting to reduce funding for Amisom and we saw the withdrawal of americans from Somalia, france is also withdrawing from west Africa. I think this is the beginning of the end for western hegemony in the middle east.

if amisom left xamar hodan and dayniile districts would be contested. the fgs barely controls dayniile anyway they have little troop presence there and its mostly not safe for gov employees.

 

[Gantaal97]

The same thing would never happen in somalia as AS is internationalist jihadist group with idea of conquering whole of horn of Africa and beyond under the name of Al Qaeda.

Taliban is a local Afghan deobandi Islamist group that wants to rule Afghanistan only if ICU existed now it would have been a fair comparison as ICU was Somali home grown Islamists group.

 

[mr steal your naag]

if amisom left xamar hodan and dayniile districts would be contested. the fgs barely controls dayniile anyway they have little troop presence there and its mostly not safe for gov employees.

Isnt dayniile the murusade neighborhood?