I finally found the time to read through the sources and calculate the numbers.
Let’s pick up where we dropped off at Saddex Geedi. Just by looking at the picture you showed, I see that you left out four clans who are all gibil madow:
- Waceysle Abgaal
- Silcis
- Wacdaan
- Baadicadde
Furthermore, the Indhoweyne is vast majority gibil madow as they trace their origins to Wacdaan Mudulood.
1- Aadandheere ( Gibil Cad)
2- Indhoweyne (Wacdaan)
3- Ba Sadiq (Gibil Cad)
4- Alaa-uddin ( Gibil Cad)
5 - Reer Cabdalla ( garjante)
6- Cawaale ( hawiye caye)
7- Wacdaan (unspecified subs)
8- Silcis
9- Waceysle
10- Baadicadde
11- Reer Sheikh
Making 4 gibil cad clans and 7 gibil madow clans. We’ll say this is 3/4 gibil madow, since some of the gibil madow clans are quite large.
View attachment 307678
I won't dispute your figures for Yacquub, Bandhawoow & Guudmane, and Iskaashato
As for Dhabarweyne & Shaanshi, Shaanshi's numbers are already split between this confederation and Yacquub. It would be more fair to say they make up a third.
Reer Maanyo is a similar case, where Ba Mukhtar's numbers are split between this confederation and Iskaashato. Let's say this confederation is 50/50.
Of course, Amoudi, Ashraaf, and Rer Faqi are all completely gibil cad.
Murusade is of course completely gibil madow. As for Jasiira, they are Sheekhaal, which is a gibil madow clan in a literal sense. However, they have heavy Arab admixture though, so it is difficult to classify what they are. They didn't even live in the city at the time though, according to the Italian census, so I won't include them.
View attachment 307679
Yacquub: 1/3 mad (193), 2/3 cad (387)
Ashraaf: cad (600)
Amoudi: cad (670)
Reer Sheikh & Saddex Geedi: 3/4 mad (488), 1/4 cad (162)
Reer Maanyo: 1/2 mad (277), 1/2 cad (277)
Reer Faqi: 1/1 cad (340)
Dhabarweyne & Shaanshi: 2/3 mad(758), 1/3 cad (379)
Moorshe: 4/5 mad (548), 1/5 cad (137)
Iskaashato: 1/3 mad (368), 2/3 cad (552)
Murusade: mad (730)
Bandhawoow & Guudmane: 2/3 mad (834), 1/3 cad (416)
Thus the local inhabitants are (using your methods and sources):
Gibil Madow: 4,132 (51%)
Gibil Cad: 3,982 (49%)
A close majority, but still a majority.