Fighting breaks out between FGS & Jubbaland forces in Ras Kamboni

[cow]

I was gonna comment on this topic but it was too long. I had believed the Hawiyes greed would outweigh the chip on their shoulder, it didn’t.

The Hawiye who had a Madoobe who was willing to sign whatever nominally to handle JLs current issues have opted to go to war over his election to ‘hopefully’ remove the Ogaden from JL. What practically is there to gain if Madoobes already signing anything? The Hawiyes complex to the Darood is paramount over self serving needs or ideology, it can not be leveraged against. Bad gamble from JL but Allah had made our enemy extend their claws early. @Abaq @Thegoodshepherd knew the Hawiye mind greater than myself!

I was taken aback by this admin when they centered their entire aims around provisional amendments to spite PL or arms embargos to gain weapons in competition with the Darood states(in part against AS). Though I was at no point willing to stand with the Dhulos after Cheese, standing with seperatists over people raising your flag had to be a true low for any head of state. I have wants from SRs admin and none of them revolve around antagonizing Dir or Garre lol

This country will either balkanize(unlikely), switch capitals(unlikely), or become a confederacy off paper.

They won't remove ogadeen. They will install another weak ogadeen puppet this time loyal to ulusow and not kenya.

 

[cow]

Ulusow has so far shown he is very weak. Madoobe can be easily defeated if ulusow has the balls to take SNA to kismaayo. Or if he recruits and arms local reer kismaayo to fight against madoobe.

Madoobe hold on kismaayo is much weaker then assads hold on syria.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

I was gonna comment on this topic but it was too long. I had believed the Hawiyes greed would outweigh the chip on their shoulder, it didn’t.

The Hawiye who had a Madoobe who was willing to sign whatever nominally to handle JLs current issues have opted to go to war over his election to ‘hopefully’ remove the Ogaden from JL. What practically is there to gain if Madoobes already signing anything? The Hawiyes complex to the Darood is paramount over self serving needs or ideology, it can not be leveraged against. Bad gamble from JL but Allah had made our enemy extend their claws early. @Abaq @Thegoodshepherd knew the Hawiye mind greater than myself!

I was taken aback by this admin when they centered their entire aims around provisional amendments to spite PL or arms embargos to gain weapons in competition with the Darood states(in part against AS). Though I was at no point willing to stand with the Dhulos after Cheese, standing with seperatists over people raising your flag had to be a true low for any head of state. I have wants from SRs admin and none of them revolve around antagonizing Dir or Garre lol

This country will either balkanize(unlikely), switch capitals(unlikely), or become a confederacy off paper.

Ahmed Madoobe’s failure to build a functioning Jubaland over the past 12 years is the main reason why Hawiye feel comfortable doing this. All over Somalia, clans met in large shir to create a federal state. The only state to have never had this legitimizing step is Jubaland.

Ahmed Madoobe had many opportunities to bring together such a shir, but he wanted to act as if he was already legitimate. He handpicked his own JL MPs, federal MPs and senators and was for a decade the single most powerful individual in the system. All of this with very little legitimacy from the people of Jubaland. He so throughly personalized the state that we can’t even imagine what Jubaland looks like without him.

I want Madoobe to remain in power to demonstrate to Hawiye that centralization is not going to happen. I have no illusions about his total incompetence as a leader of JL.

 

[Step a side]

HSM on his way to Ankara to negotiate with Abiy Ahmed. HSM will accept the MOU with Somaliland while Ethiopia will help HSM get control of Jubaland.

 

[TheLand]

HSM on his way to Ankara to negotiate with Abiy Ahmed. HSM will accept the MOU with Somaliland while Ethiopia will help HSM get control of Jubaland.

If he does that, which he well may, he loses all legitimacy

 

[TheLand]

Ulusow has so far shown he is very weak. Madoobe can be easily defeated if ulusow has the balls to take SNA to kismaayo. Or if he recruits and arms local reer kismaayo to fight against madoobe.

Madoobe hold on kismaayo is much weaker then assads hold on syria.

You comparing JL to Syria and Assad is such a f*ckin joke

 

[Step a side]

If he does that, which he well may, he loses all legitimacy

Yep! It’s called qiyaano qaran. You loose all legitimacy.

 

[TheLand]

Yep! It’s called qiyaano qaran. You loose all legitimacy.

It’s basically like giving up control of your entire home to gain control of 1 room in that home, that room being JL

 

[Midas]

HSM on his way to Ankara to negotiate with Abiy Ahmed. HSM will accept the MOU with Somaliland while Ethiopia will help HSM get control of Jubaland.

Hsm is undoubtedly corrupt. But the idea he's gonna abandon the last 10 months of effort he's putting in. Of signing a deal with eygpt and multiple weapons shipment Just so he can take down jubbaland is not realistic. It's like you guys can't give make a level headed analysis when hsm is involved

 

[TheLand]

Hsm is undoubtedly corrupt. But the idea he's gonna abandon the last 10 months of effort he's putting in. Of signing a deal with eygpt and multiple weapons shipment Just so he can take down jubbaland is not realistic. It's like you guys can't give make a level headed analysis when hsm is involved

Why do you think he’s going there to face him then? What would be the point if he already said he wouldn’t unless Ethiopia goes back on the MOU? Ethiopia hasn’t. Please explain, ‘you guys are wrong’ is just useless.

 

[Step a side]

Hsm is undoubtedly corrupt. But the idea he's gonna abandon the last 10 months of effort he's putting in. Of signing a deal with eygpt and multiple weapons shipment Just so he can take down jubbaland is not realistic. It's like you guys can't give make a level headed analysis when hsm is involved

What do you think the Egyptian deal was all about? To get rid of shabaab?

 

[RiceMuncher]

HSM on his way to Ankara to negotiate with Abiy Ahmed. HSM will accept the MOU with Somaliland while Ethiopia will help HSM get control of Jubaland.

I already reported on it last night. HSM is not going there to sign shit sxb. Erdogan is putting pressure on xabashiga. You'll see IA.

 

[Step a side]

I already reported on it last night. HSM is not going there to sign shit sxb. Erdogan is pushing pressure on xabashiga. You'll see IA.

Why does Erdogan need to put pressure on Ethiopia for? They don’t even border each other.

 

[Midas]

Why do you think he’s going there to face him then? What would be the point if he already said he wouldn’t unless Ethiopia goes back on the MOU? Ethiopia hasn’t. Please explain, ‘you guys are wrong’ is just useless.

We don't know there could be several reasons. But the problem is in your guys worldview the expectation is that somali leaders will naturally revrse course on everything they're doing so they can win a clan conflict. Since in the worldview of a lot of people in this form clan victory is obviously the most important and pressing concern. (I'm not saying hsm is not a qabiilist he is)

 

[Step a side]

somali leaders will naturally revrse course on everything they're doing so they can win a clan conflict.

HSM doesn’t care about clan. He wants to stay in power and benefit himself.

 

[RiceMuncher]

Why does Erdogan need to put pressure on Ethiopia for? They don’t even border each other.

You rather believe a somali president signing Somalilands to xabashi miyaa?

 

[Midas]

HSM doesn’t care about clan. He wants to stay in power and benefit himself.

If you believe that. Theny why would you think he would give Ethiopia what they want when they literally have been bringing thosuansa of soloders to gedo to support ahmed madobe ? Hsm is not stupid he obviously realizes Ethiopia will never stop supporting ahmed madobe.

 

[Step a side]

You rather believe a somali president signing Somalilands to xabashi miyaa?

@Midas Our oceans were being signed off like nothing. A small strip of land that grants Ethiopia sea access in exchange for HSM to get full control of Jubaland is a deal HSM would go for. Just watch tomorrow with your own eyes.

 

[TheLand]

We don't know there could be several reasons. But the problem is in your guys worldview the expectation is that somali leaders will naturally revrse course on everything they're doing so they can win a clan conflict. Since in the worldview of a lot of people in this form clan victory is obviously the most important and pressing concern. (I'm not saying hsm is not a qabiilist he is)

I’m not saying it will or won’t happen, I’m deeply suspicious though. These are Somalis sxb, they are not to be trusted.

 

[Midas]

@Midas Our oceans were being signed off like nothing. A small strip of land that grants Ethiopia sea access in exchange for HSM to get full control of Jubaland is a deal HSM would go for. Just watch tomorrow with your own eyes

Are you talking about thr turkey deal? I hope your not Becuase if you are thats a ridculous comparison. I'd have to question your integrity