Shabaab is definitely holding back the potential of KG/JL. Because they haven't been able to move to their capitals. Also you cannot even travel freely from city to city which slows down development greatly.
I will be honest and say both Laftagareen and Madoobe just want HSM support till their next election. They are far weaker than they were and understand HSM can push them out.
Under this system, say Captain Ahab take over the leadership tomorrow, depletes resources, starves States, wages wars, starting with your beloved State, what is your recourse?
The courts. Hence why we need a strong judicial system
You do know that state autonomy is the only protection you have against another Siyaad Barre right? If you give too much power to Xamar, you run the risk of another dictatorship and that is not in our interests
I do not know about Laftagareen, but I do know how A Madodbe is thinking. There is a bit more to his madness, and he is a bit more complex than given credit for. Let us call it a lapse in judgement, and he did float as much behind closed door.
There are no sound, reliable institutions incl. Courts, 'cos there are no technical class to assume those roles, and will not be for next 50 years.
Arguably, two of the current states (Jubaland and Puntland) are roughly modelled on two traditional monarchies that pre-date colonialism (the fledging Waamo Sultanate under Ogaden in Jubaland and Tanaland, and Majertenia in the North East). Arenβt such native state structures more deserving of being used rather than foreign imports?
Itβs inevitable anyway. The moment FGS has fighter jets, the FGS has true power and ability to enforce whatever it wants in states.
Again, the FGS having monopoly of violence is inevitable. Weβre talking about a future where the commander in chief will have drones and air superiority.
There are many case studies like this particularly in JL. RKB becoming SNA and Danab graduate troops arriving in Kismayo under Farmajo are the easiest to think of. If Xamar could codify a changing of guard in other regions we never would have been in war to begin with.
This fits perfectly in Madoobes track record. The philosophy and operation of JL and PL differs but they aim in the same direction more so from function then clan allegiance.
See, had ina Sh Madar or X Cabdi Waraabe had been around, this whole shite is SL could have been avoided, which is where wise traditional elders are critical to any future system of government in .So.
The problem you all have is not viewing things into the distance.
A very good example is what is happening with the GGG road project from Garacad to Galdogob, where whilst funds had been approved by external entities, the Fed. gov't in Xamar will not release the funds, and wants to use the funds for political expediency against Deni. Now, imagine if PL's security forces, and/or civil servants were beholden to Xamar, and the current dispute rose? Deni could have easily been dislodged moons ago, ergo why devolved federalism is the answer for NOW.
A Madoobe found himself in a bit of wicket situation, and chose do dance with the devil. For how long, I know not.
We NEVER want that in a million years.
You donβt have to fight a state, just a leader. Weβve seen it in Farmaajoβs term. FGSβs ability to do that will only strengthen. Farmaajo captured Baydhabo, Dhusamareb, Jowhar on election day if you remember. He tried Kismayo with ENDF but failed. But in future when FGS has full air superiority a few bombings will allow for that easily.
Arms embargo lifting is inevitable, and likely soon. On the other point itβs already happened with NCC.
